The future of war in its technical, economic, and political relations; is war now impossible?

Contents

PAGE

Preface: Conversations with the Author, by

W. T. Stead ...... vii

Part I Military And Naval Developments

CHAP. PAGE

I. How War will be Waged on Land . . 3

II. Plans of Campaign : Possible and Impossible 6^

III. The Future of Naval Warfare . . . 93

IV. Does Russia Need A Navy? . . . 113

V. What Wars have Cost in the Nineteenth

VI. What they will Cost in the Future . . 140

VII. The Care of the Wounded .... 146

CONTENTS

Part II Economic Difficulties In Time Of War

CHAP.

II. In Britain . . , . . .251

III. In Germany ...... 266

V. Effect of War on the Vital Needs of Peoples 294

, VI. Probable Losses in Future Wars . . 319

VII. Militarism and its Nemesis . . 347

LIST OF MAPS AND DIAGRAMS

J'AGE

Map of Russian Defensive System . . _ . 74

Map of Paths of Advance of the Austro-German Armies from Points of Concentration to the Vistula-Bug-Narev Theatre of War ........... 77

Map of Paths of Advance of the German and Austrian Armies on the \'istula-Bug-Narev Theatre of War, from Pierron and Brailmont ......... 78

Plan of Inva.sion by Russia of Prussian Territory ... 89 Diagram of Expenditure on the Crimean War .129

Diagram of Expenditure on the War of 1859 ... 130 Diagram of Expenditure by Russia on the War of 1877-78 . 131

Diagram of Expenditure of Europe on War in the second half

of the Nineteenth Century ....... 132

Diagram of Increase per cent, of Military Expenditure between

Diagrams of Probable Daily Expenditure on a I'uture War 142-144 .Diagram of Percentage Distribution of the Revenues . 145

Diagram of Result of Firing from an ii-mil. Rifle . 149-150

Plate showing effect of a Bullet fired from a distance of 3500

metres on the Human Tibia, and on the Bone of an Ox . 153 Diagram showing Depreciation of Russian Securities at the Outbreak of War .......... 168

Plan showing Expenditure by Russia, per Inhabitant, on Army

Diagram of Russian Exports and Imports (1889-94) • - 172

Diagram of Percentage of Russian Export to Production (1890-94) 175 Plan of Russian Grain Production per Inhabitant . . .176 Diagram of Classification of Russian Imports . . . .178

Plan of Russian Commercial Undertakings in 1S92, per 100,000 of

the Population . . . . . iSo

Plan of Russian Expenditure on Posts and Telegraphs per Inhabitant 181

Plan of Output of Russian Factories ...... 183

Diagram of Percentage Comparison of Wages in Russia, Great

Britain, and North America 186 iv LIST OF MAPS AND DIAGRAMS

I'AGE

Plan of Percentage Growth of Russian Population between 1885

Plan of Average Number of Houses in a Russian Settlement 191

Plan of Average Value of one Property destroyed by Fire in

Russia, between 1860-87 . .194

Plan of Average Losses by Fi're in Russia per 100 Inhabitants

(1860-68) 195

Plan of Number of Large Cattle in Russia, per looo desaytins

(1888) 199

Plan of Comparative Yields of Agricultural Countries of Europe 200 Plan of Comparative Number of Large Cattle in Agricultural

Countries of Europe ........ 201

Diagram of Russian Harvest in 1893 ..... 205

Diagram of Growth of the Orthodox Population in Russia, and

the General Population of other Countries, per 1000 . 207

Diagram of the Number of Marriages, per 1000, of the Population

of the Countries of Europe ....... 208

Diagram of the Number of Births, per 1000, of the Population

of the Countries of Europe ....... 208

Diagram of the Mortality, per 1000, of the Population of the

Countries of Europe ........ 209

Diagram of Percentage Mortality of Children under one year, in

the Countries of Europe . .210

Diagram of the Number of Survivors out of 1000 Children born

at all ages up to 75 212

Diagram of the Value of Human Life at Various Ages 214

Plan of Outlay on Instruction in Russia in 1887, per Inhabitant . 215 Diagram of Percentage of Illiterates accepted for Military Service in chief European Countries ...... 217

Diagrams showing Number of Students in Higher and Intermediate Russian Educational Institutions, per 100,000 of the

Population 218-219

Diagram of Number of Doctors in European Countries, per

Diagram of Number of Quadratic Kilometres for every Doctor . 221 Plan of Outlay on Medicine in Russia, per Inhabitant 222

Plan of Number of Deaths from Typhus in Russia, per 1000 Cases 224 Diagram of Number of Illegitimates in 1000 Births, in chief

European Countries ........ 225

Diagram of Number of Suicides per 100,000 of the Population,

in chief European Countries . ...... 226

Diagram of Consumption of Spirits per 100 of the Population,

in chief European Countries, in 1868 and 1888 . 229

Diagram of Number of Deaths from Drunkenness per Million of

the Population, in chief European Countries . 230

Diagram of Average Number of Convictions per 200,000 of the

Population of Russia ........ 231

LIST OF MAPS AND DIAGRAMS v

PAGE

Diagrams of Numbers of Various Classes condemned for Murder per Million of the corresponding Population in chief European Countries ......... 232

Diagrams of Numbers of Various Classes convicted for Theft per Million of the corresponding Population in chief European Countries ......... 233

Diagrams of Numbers convicted for Highway Robbery per Million of the corresponding Population in chief European Countries .......... 234

Diagrams of Numbers convicted for Swindling per Million of the

corresponding Population, in chief European Countries 235

Diagram of Percentage Relation of Men and Women convicted

in chief European Countries ....... 236

Diagram of Percentage Increase in Russia in the Fifteen Chief

Forms of Crime ......... 236

Diagram of Number of Convictions in Great Britain per 100,000

of the Population ......... 237

Diagram of Comparative Convictions in France and Austria . 237 Diagram of Number of Convictions per 100,000 of Population in

Plan of E.xpenditure on Justice and Prisons in Russia per Inhabitant ........... 239

Plan of Percentage of Grown Horses in Russia . . . .241

Plan of Amount of Production of Iron and Steel in Russia . . 243 Diagram of Number of Native and Imported Cattle in England . 256 Diagram of Classification by Occupation of 1000 of the Popula-

of Great Britain ......... 259

Diagram of Distribution of the Income of the Population of England 260

Diagram of State of Savings in Great Britain in 1895 . . . 261 Diagram of Expenditure of England on Armed Forces between

Diagram of Classification of Workers in Germany according to

Diagram of Emigration from Germany to America (1891-1894) . 274 Diagram of Value of Foreign Securities stamped in Germany 276

Diagram of French Imports and Exports (1860-1894) . 278

Diagram of French Trade (1860-1S94) . ..... 279

Diagram of French Trade (1883-1894) 280,281

Diagram of French Revenue and Expenditure (1861-1893) 281

Diagram of French Debt (1852-1895) 2S2

Diagram of French Savings (1869- 1895) ..... 282

Diagram of Average Value of Properties, in Francs, passing by

Diagram of the Distribution of the French Population according vi LIST OF MAPS AND DIAGRAMS

PAGE

Diagram of Assistance given to the Poor in France in i88g . 288

Diagram of Number of Old Men and Children in Percentage

Relation to Population in chief European Countries . . 289 Diagram of Number of Bachelors in Percentage Relation to

Population in chief European Countries .... 290 Diagram of Increase or Decrease of the Population in Francs

Diagram of Number of Population in chief European Countries

Diagram of Value by Growth of Population in France and Germany, from 1788 to 1888 ....... 293

Diagram showing the Number of Days on which Food would be

Lacking in Time of War in chief European Counties . . 296 Diagram showing the Number of Days on which Oats would be

Lacking in time of War in chief European Countries . 298

Diagram of Superfluity or Deficiency of Meat in chief European

Diagram of Superfluity or Deficiency of Salt in chief European

Diagram of Superfluity or Deficiency of Kerosene in chief

European Countries ........ 306

Diagram of Superfluity or Deficiency of Stone Coal in chief

European Countries ........ 306

Chart showing Comparative Development of Socialists and Freethinkers in Germany according to the Elections of 1891 . 312 Diagram of Percentage of Horses which would be taken for

Military Purposes in chief European Countries . . . 316 Diagram showing Amount of Living Force of a Bullet . . 320 Diagram showing Penetrative Power of the Mauser Bullet on

Numbers of Horses' Carcases . . . . . .321

Diagram of Rotation and Weight of Bullets of various Rifles . 322 Diagram of Zone of Effective Fire against Infantry by Chassepot

and Mannlicher Rifles respectively ..... 323 Diagram of Breadth of Zone of Effective Fire against Cavalry by

the Chassepot and Mannlicher Rifles respectively . . 324 Diagram of Distance of Useful Fire ...... 325

Diagrams of Percentage of Hits in Fire at One Infantrj-man by

French and German Soldiers ..... 326-327 Diagram of the Deviation of the Paskevitch Instrument . . 327 Diagram of the Number of Cartridges Carried by One Soldier

with Different Rifles 328

Diagram of Number of Sappers to 100 Infantrymen in Various

European Countries ........ 333

Diagram of Losses in the German Army in the War of 1870 . 336 Diagram showing Influence of the Quality of Firearms on the

Relations of Killed to Wounded 343

CONVERSATIONS WITH M. BLOCH

" The FiLttire of War " is the title of M. de BlocJis voluminoiLS cyclopcrdia on the art of war, past, present, and to come. But that is a mistake. For M. Block's thesis is that there is no war to ■C07ne, that war indeed has already become impossible.

It would really have been clearer therefore to •call this translation of the sixth and conclnding volume of his immense book ''Is War N'oiu Impossible ? " — as in the English edition, — for this title gives a much clearer idea of the contents. For HI. Bloch contends in all sober seriousness that war — great war in the usual acceptation of the word — has already, by the natural and normal development of the art or science of warfare, become a physical impossibility /

That is IV hat this book was written to prove.

viii PREFACE

But, before reading the chapters crammed with statistics and entering tipon the arguments of the great Polish economist, the reader may find It convenient to glance over, as a preliminary introduction to the book, the following free rendering of the conversations which I have had the privilege of enjoying with the author at St. Petersburg and in London.

M. Bloch, I may state in a parenthesis, is a well-known banker of Warsaw, zvho several years ago forsook finance, in ivJiich he had achieved no small success, in order to devote himself to the study of political economy, and to examine partictilarly the question of the future of war from a political economical standpoint. Eight years he devoted to the special study of which his zvork " The Future of War " is the monument. He published it in Russian two years ago. This year he has brought out editions in German and in French. When I met him in St. Petersburg last autumn he gave 'me permission to pttblisJi a translation of his book in English, in whole or in part. I h'lve selected the last part, the sixth volume, in which he suniiuarises the conclusions which he had arrived at in the earlier part of the book.

PREFACE ix

M. Block is a man of benevolent 7nien, of middle stahire, and apparently betzueen fifty and sixty years of age. He paid a flying visit to Lo7idon in April, and is at the present moment of writing at the Grand Hotel in Paris. His home address is Warsaw. Wheii he is in St. Petersburg he stays at the Hotel d' Ettrope.

" Utopians/' said M. Bloch ; "and they call us Utopians, idealists, visionaries, because we believe that the end of war is in sight ? But who are the Utopians, I should lilce to know ? What is a Utopian, using the term as an epithet of opprobrium ? He is a man who lives in a dream of the impossible ; but what 1 know and am prepared to prove is, that the real Utopians who are living in a veritable realm of phantasy are those people who believe in war. War has been possible, no doubt, but it has at last become impossible, and those who are preparing for war, and basing all their schemes of life on the expectation of war, are visionaries of the worst kind, for war is no longer possible."

"That is good news, M. Bloch," I replied ; " but is it not somewhat of a paradox ? Only last year we had the Spanish-American war ; the year before, the war between Turkey and Greece. Since when has war become impossible ? "

" Oh," replied M. Bloch, with vivacity, '* I do not speak of such wars. It is not to such frontier brawls, or punitive operations such as you in England, for instance, are perpetually engaging in on the frontiers of your

X PREFACE

extended empire, that I refer when I say that war has become impossible. When soldiers and statesmen speak about the War of the Future, they do not refer to such trumpery expeditions against semi-barbarous peoples. The war of the future, the war which has become impossible, is the war that has haunted the imagination of mankind for the last thirty years, the war in which great nations armed to the teeth were to fling themselves with all their resources into a struggle for life and death This is the war that every day becomes more and more impossible. Yes, it is in preparations against that impossible war that these so-called practical men, who are the real Utopians of our time, are wasting the resources of civilisation."

" Pray explain yourself more clearly, M. Bloch." "Well," said he, "I suppose you will admit that war has practically become impossible for the minor States. It is as impossible for Denmark or for Belgium to make war to-day as it would be for you or for me to assert the right of private war, which our forefathers possessed. We cannot do it. At least, we could only try to do it, and then be summarily suppressed and punished for our temerity. That is the position of the minor States. For them war is practically forbidden by their stronger neighbours. They are in the position of the descendants of the feudal lords, whose right of levying war has vanished owing to the growth of a strong central power whose interests and authority are incompatible with the exercise of what used to be at one time an almost universal right. For the minor States, therefore, war is impossible."

*' Admitted," I replied. "Impossible, that is to say, without the leave and licence of the great Powers."

XI

" Precisely," said M. Bloch ; '^ and hence, when we discuss the question of future wai", we always deal with it as a war between great Powers. That is to say, primarily, tiie long talkcd-of, constantly postponed war between France and Germany for the lost provinces; and, secondly, that other war, the thought of which has gradually replaced that of the single-handed duel between France and Germany, viz., a war between theTriplice and the Franco- Russian Alliance. It is that war which constantly preoccupies the mind of statesmen and sovereigns of Europe, and it is that war which, I maintain, has become absolutely impossible."

" But how impossible, M. Bloch ? Do you mean morally impossible ? "

" No such thing," he replied. ' I am dealing not with moral considerations, which cannot be measured, but with hard, matter-of-fact, material things, which can be estimated and measured with some approximation to absolute accuracy. I maintain that war has become impossible alike from a military, economic, and political point of view. The very development that has taken place in the mechanism of war has rendered war an impracticable operation. The dimensions of modern armaments and the organisation of society have rendered its prosecution an economic impossibility, and, finally, i( any attempt were made to demonstrate the inaccuracy of my assertions by putting the matter to a test on a great scale, we should find the inevitable result in a catastrophe which would destroy all existing political organisations. Thus, the great war cannot be made, and any attempt to make it would result in suicide. Such, I believe, is the simple demonstrable fact."

" But where is the demonstration ? " I asked.

xii PREFACE

M. Bloch turned and pointed to his encyclopaedic work upon "The Future of War," six solid volumes, each containing I do not know how many quarto pages, which stood piled one above the other.

" Read that," he said. " In that book you will find the facts upon which my demonstration rests."

" That is all very well," I said ; " but how can you, M. Bloch, an economist and a banker, set yourself up as an authority upon military' matters ? "

" Oh," said M. Bloch, " you have a saying that it is often the outsider that sees most ; and you must remember that the conclusions arrived at by military experts are by no means inaccessible to the general student. In order to form a correct idea as to the changes that have taken place in the mechanism of war, 'it is quite conceivable that the bystander who is not engaged in the actual carrying out of the evolution now in progress may be better able to see the drift and tendency of things than those who are busily engaged in the actual detail of the operation. I can only say that while at first hand I have no authority whatever, and do notin any way pose as a military or naval expert, I have taken all imaginable pains in order to master the literature of warfare, especially the most recent treatises upon military operations and the handling of armies and fleets, which have been published by the leading military authorities in the modern world. After mastering what they have written, I have had opportunities of discussing personally with many officers in all countries as to the conclusions at which I have arrived, and I am glad to know that in the main there is not much difference of opinion as to the accuracy of my general conclusions as to the nature of future warfare."

Xlll

" But do they also agree with you," I said, " that war has become impossible?"

" No," said M. Bloch, " that would be too much to expect. Otherwise Othello's occupation would be gone. But as they have admitted the facts, we can draw our own conclusions."

" But I see in your book you deal with every branch of the service, armaments of all kinds, manoeuvres, questions of strategy, problems of fortification — everything, in fact, that comes into the consideration of the actual conduct of modern war. Do you mean to tell me that military men generally think you have made no mistakes ? "

" That would be saying too much. The book was referred by the Emperor of Russia at my request to the Minister of War, with a request that it should be subjected to examination by a council of experts. The results of that council were subsequently communicated to the Emperor in the shape of a report, which set forth that while in dealing with so very many questions it was impossible to avoid some mistakes, it was their opinion that the book was a very useful one, and that it was most desirable that it should be placed in the hands of all staff officers. They also added an expression of opinion that no book could contribute so much to the success of the Conference or to the information of those who were to take part in its deliberations.

"The one question upon which strong difference of opinion existed was that concerning the use of the bayonet. I have arrived at the conclusion, based upon a very careful examination of various authorities, that the day of the ba3'onet is over. In the Franco-Gennan war tlie total mortality of the Germans from cold steel amounted to only one per cent. The proportion on the xiv PREFACE

French side was higher, but I think it can be mathematicall}' demonstrated that, in future, war will be decided at ranges which will render the use of the bayonet impossible. General Dragomiroff, however, a veteran of the old school, cannot tolerate this slight upon his favourite weapon. In his eyes the bayonet is supreme, and it is cold steel which at the last will always be the deciding factor in the combats of peoples. He therefore strongly condemns that portion of my book ; but it stands on its own merits, and the reader can form his own judgment as to the probability of the bayonet being of any practical use in future war."

" General Dragomiroff 's devotion to the bayonet," I remarked, " reminds me of our admirals' devotion to sails in our navy. Fifteen years ago it was quite obvious that the fighting ship of the future had no need for sails — that, indeed, sails were an encumbrance and a danger ; but all the admirals of the old school attached far more importance to the smartness in furling and unfurling sail than they did to proficiency in gunnery or in any of the deciding factors in naval battles. They clung to masts and yards for years after all the younger officers in the service knew that they might as well have clung to bows and arrows ; and I suppose you will find the same thing in regard to the bayonet."

"Yes," said M. Bloch, " the bayonet seems to me altogether out of date. No doubt it is a deadly enough weapon, if you can get within a yard of your enemy; but the problem that I have been asking myself is whether in future combatants will ever be able to get within one hundred yards of one another, let alone one yard."

" But then," I rejoined, '* if that be so, wars will be much less deadly than they were before."

PREFACE XV

"Yes and no," said M. Bloch ; "they will become less deadly because they have become more deadly. There is no kind of warfare so destructive of human life as that in which you have bodies of men face to face with each other, with nothing but cold steel to settle the issue. The slaughter which took place in the old wat-s between barbarians, or between the Romans and the barbarian tribes on their frontiers, "was simply appalling. There is nothing like it in modern warfare, and this diminution of the mortality in battle has been, paradoxically enough, produced by the improved deadliness of the weapons with which men fight. They are, indeed, becoming so deadly that before long you will see they will never fight at all."

"That," I replied, "was the faith of Rudyard Kipling, who wrote me a few months^ ago saying that he relied for the extinction of war upon the invention of a machine which would infallibly slay fifty per cent, of the combatants whenever battle was waged. 'Then,' he said, * war would cease of itself.' The same idea was expressed by Lord Lytton in his novel of 'The Coming Race,' in which he attributed the final disappearance of war from the planet to the discovery of vril, a destructive so deadly that an army could be annihilated by the touch of a button by the finger of a child."

"Yes," said M. Bloch; "that is so; but until mankind has made experience of the deadliness of its weapons there will be terrible bloodshed. For instance, at Omdurman the destruction inflicted upon the forces of the Khalifa came very near the fifty per cent, standard of Rudyard Kipling. That one experience was probably sufficient even for the Dervishes. They will never again face the fire of modern rifles. The experience which thcj^ have learned is rapidly becoming generalised throughout

XVI the armies of Christendom, and although there may be some frightful scenes of wholesale slaughter, one or two experiences of that kind will rid our military authorities of any desire to come to close quarters with their adversaries."

" What a paradox it is ! " I replied. " We shall end by killing nobody, because if we fought at all we should kill everybody. Then you do not anticipate increased slaughter as the result of the increased precision in weapons ? "

"You mistake me," said M. Bloch. "At first there will be increased slaughter — increased slaughter on so terrible a scale as to render it impossible to get troops to push the battle to a decisive issue. They will try to, thinking that they are fighting under the old conditions, and they will learn such a lesson that they will abandon the attempt for ever. Then, instead of a war fought out to the bitter end in a series of decisive battles, we shall have as a substitute a long period of continually increasing strain upon the resources of the combatants. The war, instead of being a hand-to-hand contest in which the combatants measure their physical and moral superiority, will become a kind of stalemate, in which neither army being able to get at the other, both armies will be maintained in opposition to each other, threatening each other, but never being able to deliver a final and decisive attack. It will be simply the natural evolution of the armed peace, on an aggravated scale."

" Yes," said M. Bloch, " accompanied by entire dislocation of all industry and severing of all the sources of supply by which alone the community is enabled to bear the crushing burden of that armed peace. It will be a multiplication of expenditure simultaneously accompanied by a

PREFACE xvii

diminution of the sources by which that expenditure can be met. That is the future of war — not fighting, but famine, not the slaying of men, but the bankruptcy of nations ai ' the breaic-up of the whole social organisation."

" Now I begin to perceive how it is that we have as a prophet of the end of war a political economist, and not a soldier."

" Yes," said M. Bloch, " it is as a political economist that I discovered the open secret which he who runs may read. The soldier by natural evolution has so perfected the mechanism of slaughter that he has practically secured his own extinction. He has made himself so costly that mankind can no longer afford to pay for his maintenance, and he has therefore transferred the sceptre of the world from those who govern its camps to those who control its markets."

"But now, M. Bloch, will you condescend to particulars, and explain to me how this great evolution has been brought about ? "

" It is very simple," said M. Bloch. " The outward and visible sign of the end of war was the introduction of the magazine rifle. For several hundred years after the discovery of gunpowder the construction of firearms made little progress. The cannon with which you fought at Trafalgar differed comparatively little from those which you used against the Armada. For two centuries you were content to clap some powder behind a round ball in an iron tube, and fire it at your enemy.

" The introduction of the needle gun and of breechloading cannon may be said to mark the dawn of the new era, which, however, was not definitely established amongst us until the invention of the magazine rifle of very small calibre. The magazine gun may also be mentioned as an

b xviii PREFACE

illustration of the improved deadliness of firearms ; but, as your experience at Obdurman showed, the deciding factor was not the Maxim, but the magazine rifle."

*' Yes," I said ; " as Lord Wolseley said, it was the magazine rifle which played like a deadly hose spouting leaden bullets upon the advancing enemy."

" Yes," said M. Bloch, " and the possibility of firing half a dozen bullets without having to stop to reload has transformed the conditions of modern war."

" Do you not exaggerate the importance of mere rapidity of fire ? " I asked.

" No," said M. Bloch ; " rapidity of fire does not stand alone. The modern rifle is not only a much more rapid firer than its predecessors, but it has also an immensely wider range and far greater precision of fire. To these three qualities must be added yet a fourth, which completes the revolutionary nature of the new firearm, and that is the introduction of smokeless powder."

" The Spanish-American campaign," I said, " illustrated the importance of smokeless powder ; but how do you think the smokelessness of the new explosives will affect warfare in the future ?"

" In the first case," said M. Bloch, " it demolishes the screen behind which for the last 400 years human beings have fought and died. All the last great battles have been fought more or less in the dark. After the battle is joined, friends and foes have been more or less lost to sight in the clouds of dense smoke which hung heavy over the whole battlefield. Now armies will no longer fight in the dark. Every soldier in the fighting line will see with frightful distinctness the havoc which is being made in the ranks by the shot an J shell of the enemy. The veil which gunpowder spread over the worst horrors of the battlefield has