The future of war in its technical, economic, and political relations

Front matter

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Contents

INTRODUCTION, BY EDWIN D. MEAD.

CONVERSATIONS WITH THE AUTHOR, BY W. T.

STEAD

Part II Economic Difficulties In Time Of War

. In Britain

CONTENTS

. Errect oF WAR ON THE VITAL NEEDS OF PEOPLES . PROBABLE LOossES IN FutTuRE Wars

LIST OF MAPS AND DIAGRAMS

Map of Russian Defensive System

Map of Paths of Advance of the Austro- German Armies from Points of Concentration to the Vistula-Bug-Narev Theatre of War

Map of Paths of peace of the Cerne sonal Ken Picoties on the Vistula-Bug-Narev Theatre of War, from Pierron and Brailmont

Plan of Invasion by Russia ot Bonscins esiehy

Diagram of Expenditure on the Crimean War

Diagram of Expenditure on the War of 1859

Diagram of Expenditure by Russia on the War of 1877- Bl.

Diagram of Expenditure of Europe on War in the second half of the Nineteenth Century

Diagram of Increase per cent. of Military Expenditure patvedn 1874 and 1896

Diagrams of Probable Daily Fependit ure on a Future mae 142-144

PAGE

Diagram of Percentage Distribution of the Revenues . 145 Diagram of Result of Firing from an 11-mil. Rifle : 2 9946-756 Plate showing effect of a Bullet fired from a distance of 3500

metres on the Human Tibia, and on the Bone of an Ox 153 Diagram showing Depreciation of Russian Securities at the Out-

break of War . 168 Plan showing Expenditure by Russian, per Inhabitant, on Army

and Navy 170 Diagram of Russian Bipbits aiid ioe (1889- 9) ; 172 Diagram of Percentage of Russian Export to Production (1890-94) 175 Plan of Russian Grain Production per Inhabitant 176 Diagram of Classification of Russian Imports 178 Plan of Russian Commercial Dist eee in 1892, per 100,000 of

the Population 180 Plan of Russian Beatie on Posts ait Telegraphs aa te

habitant . ; : 181 Plan of Output of een paces : 183 Diagram of Percentage Comparison of Wess in pavlich Great

Britain, and North America . : , : 186

LIST OF MAPS AND DIAGRAMS

Plan of Percentage Growth of Russian Aue oR between te ee

and 1897. 189 Plan of Average Me maner of Howat ina Riser Settlement IgI Plan of Average Value of one Property poice cts by Fire in

Russia, between 1860-87 : 194 Plan of Average Losses by Fire in Risee per 100 fahabitadts

(1860-68) 195 Plan of Number of Large Cattle. in Russia, per. 1000 Be eee

(1888) 199 Plan of Comparative Vidas éf Aeripal Gael! Countries 3 Burope 200 Plan of Comparative Number of Large Cattle in ns Ge cpa sh

Countries of Europe : : i qp@OE Diagram of Russian Harvest in 1803 205 Diagram of Growth of the Orthodox Population in Risse and

the General Population of other Countries, per 1000 ith. 207 Diagram of the Number of Marriages, per tooo, of the Population

of the Countries of Europe : 208 Diagram of the Number of Births, per 1000, of the Popalatien

of the Countries of Europe 208 Diagram of the Mortality, per 1ooo, of fie Population bf ‘ie

“Countries of Europe 209 Diagram of Percentage Mortality a Children Rin one year, in

the Countries of ‘Europe 210 Diagram of the Number of Survivarst out 3 1000 MUhildcen Me

at all ages up to 75 Rea Diagram of the Value of Human da at Wacous Ages 214 Plan of Outlay on Instruction in Russia in 1887, per Inhabitant. 215 Diagram of Percentage of Illiterates accepted for Military Ser-

vice in chief European Countries . 217 Diagrams showing Number of Students in igkey At ateene

diate Russian Educational Institutions, per 100,000 of the

Population. ; 2 218-219 Diagram of Number of Doctors in atityayi ee Countries, per

100,000 of the Population a aes Diagram of Number of Quadratic Riemer ee es Davee eee Plan of Outlay on Medicine in Russia, per Inhabitant 222 Plan of Number of Deaths from Typhusin Russia, per 1000 Cases 224 © Diagram of Number of Hlesitimalse, in 1000 Births, in chief

“European Countries 225 Diagram of Number of Snictiae! per 100,000 of an Populareen

in chief European Countries . : 226 Diagram of Consumption of Spirits per 100 OF the Populstane

in chief European Countries, in 1868 and 1888 229 Diagram of Number of Deaths from Drunkenness per Million of

“the Population, in chief European Couatries 230 Diagram of Average Number of Convictions per 200,000 of the

Population of Russia ‘ : ; : : : eat

LIST OF MAPS AND DIAGRAMS

Diagrams of Numbers of Various Classes condemned for Murder per Million of the corresponding Beeeree in chief European Countries

Diagrams of Numbers of Varkgns Classes convicted for Theft per Million of the corresponding Population in chief European Countries

Diagrams of Numbers Comined fe Highway Rothery ber Million of the Be cet Population in chief European Countries

Diagrams of Numbers Beats faye sornaline siete Million of ihe corresponding Population, in chief European Countries

Diagram of Percentage Relation of Men and Women convicted in chief European Countries .

Diagram of Percentage Increase in aes in the Fifteen Chief “Forms of Crime

Diagram of Number of Gonvictions ¢ in Pareat Ay: per 100,000 of the Population .

Diagram of Comparative Gauvietionsy in Pesce ane Anetra

Diagram of Number of Convictions per 100,000 of Population in Germany

Plan of Expenditure on ) Justice oe Prone: in Praca per Th hae bitant : ; “

Plan of Percentage of Gthwe Hones i in Rusia ,

Plan of Amount of Production of Iron and Steel in Biol

Diagram of Number of Native and Imported Cattle in England .

Diagram of Classification by pear of 1000 of the Popul: of Great Britain

Papeiam of Distribution of ihe Tacome of the Population of ag an . : ‘ i

Diagram of State of eaeinees in Grent Britain in Tiare ;

Diagram of Expenditure of Englands on Armed Forces hetrean 1864 and 1895

Diagram of Classification of AWorkera in Germany sees Wages

Diagram of Emigration emt Gremany ie Roteres ae rRoaye

Diagram of Value of Foreign Securities stamped in Germany

Diagram of French Imports and Exports (1860-1894) .

Diagram of French Trade (1860-1894) . é :

Diagram of French Trade (1883-1894) . 280,

Diagram of French Revenue and endear (1861- r893)

Diagram of French Debt (1852-1895) . ;

Diagram of French Savings (1869-1895)

Diagram of Average Value of Properties, in Brafics: pasha i Legacy

Diagram of the Imsiibution of die Breach Pophlation according to Occupation in 1886 : : : ; : ; =

PAGE

234 235 236 236

237 237

239 241 243 256

260 201

LIST OF MAPS AND DIAGRAMS

PAGE Diagram of Assistance given to the Poor in France in 1889 288 Diagram of Number of Old Men and Children in Percentage Relation to Population in chief European Countries . oP a, DOO Diagram of Number of Bachelors in Percentage Relation to Population in chief European Countries. 290 Diagram of Increase or Decrease of the Population i in France and Germany per 1000 : 291 Diagram of Number of Population in chier Buropean Countries in 1788 and 1888 in Millions . : 292 Diagram of Value by Growth of Population i in F rance stan Gas many, from 1788 to 1888 : ; 293 Diagram showing the Number of Days on which God youll i Lacking in Time of War in chief European Counties . #1: 260 Diagram showing the Number of Days on which Oats would be Lacking in time of War in chief European Countries . yh aes Diagram of Superfluity or Deficiency of Meat in chief panes} Countries. 304 Diagram of Ste itee or Deficiency of Salt in chief Buropean “Countries : ° 305 Diagram of Superfluity or etcistes 33 eee in Aiier European Countries. 306 Diagram of Superfluity or enceres of Steaie Coal a ene European Countries. 306 Chart showing Comparative Devioument Sf Socialists and Free: thinkers in Germany according to the Elections of i891 . 312 Diagram of Percentage of Horses which would be taken for Military Purposes in chief European Countries . ; cb ote Diagram showing Amount of Living Force of a Bullet 5 5 PSO Diagram showing Penetrative Power of the Mauser Bullet on Numbers of Horses’ Carcases : EU bs Diagram ofsRotation and Weight of Bullets of various seine i ifigee Diagram of Zone of Effective Fire against re: by Chassepot and Mannlicher Rifles respectively ; 323 Diagram of Breadth of Zone of Effective Fire apie Cavalry fe the Chassepot and Mannlicher Rifles respectively : gen Diagram of Distance of Useful Fire . ’ Peete 1 Diagrams of Percentage of Hits in Fire at One Tutasieeyren man by French and German Soldiers : : 326-327 Diagram of the Deviation of the Paskevitch Pickett ; i,m ay Diagram of the Number of ee gk Carried by One Soidier “with Different Rifles. 328 Diagram of Number of Sappers to 100 Infanteymen in Variaue European Countries. b eaehe Diagram of Losses in the Comnan Arent in ie War at oan eT Ne te

Diagram showing Influence of the aan of Firearms on the Relations of Killed to Wounded . ; ‘ 4 fet 343

The death of M. Jean de Bloch, which occurred at Warsaw just as the year (1902) began, is a misfortune for the whole world. It is peculiarly so at this immediate juncture; for the imperative problem with the world at this time is how to get rid of war and substitute for it a rational way of settling international differences, and no other man in our time has studied this problem so scientifically or contributed so much to its solution as Jean de Bloch. Indeed, I think it is not too much to say that M. Bloch was the most thorough and important student of the question of War in all its details and upon its many sides who has ever lived, and that his great book upon “The Future of War” will remain the chief armory from which the men of the twentieth century who are warring against war will continue to draw until their sure victory comes, and all national and international disputes are settled in the courts, as to-day personal disputes are settled.

I think that no book ever written in the cause of the peace and order of the world, save Hugo Grotius’s great work alone, has rendered or is likely to render such influential practical service as Bloch’s “Future of War,” supplemented as it has been by his articles in the various reviews during the years since the work was first published. Dante’s “De Monarchia,”’ the “Great Design” of Henry IV, William Penn’s “Plan for the Peace of Europe,” Immanuel Kant’s “Eternal Peace,” the essays of LaCroix, Saint Pierre, Bellers and Bentham, Sumner’s “True Grandeur of Nations,” —these high appeals and such as these have pierced to the hearts of thinking men in the successive centuries, and their general and cumulative effect in elevating the tone and broadening the outlook of society upon the question of War and its evils has been immense. It would be hard, however, to lay the hand upon any distinct practical reform or progress wrought by any of them in its own day or days that followed. But Grotius’s “Rights of War and Peace” wrought almost a revolution, and it did it almost at once. With it, it may be said with a high degree of justice, international law was born into the world almost full grown; and from the time of its appearance war, horrible at its best, has been in its usages a very different thing from what it was before. Equally definite, distinct and practical has been the influence of Bloch’s “Future of War”; and I believe that it will be seen at the end of this twentieth century that its influence has been equally powerful and far-reaching.

Bloch’s monumental work upon “The Future of War,” in six volumes, was published in Russian five or six years ago. It was the result of a decade’s special study by this eminent financier and economist, whose whole life’s experience had fitted him to understand so well those phases of the question which he felt it most important to emphasize to Europe. Editions of the complete work have been brought out in German and in French, under the distinguished author’s own supervision. No edition has yet appeared ins English; only this translation of the last volume, in which the conclusions are summarized, has been published for popular use. It is a pleasure, however, to be able to state that the preparation of a complete English edition is about to be undertaken. No library in America or England, no university or college, no editorial room or minister’s study should be without it. Meantime it is a satisfaction to know and to assure the public that the present volume contains the gist of the whole work, the clear statement of all its important principles. It will always be the best thing for the ordinary reader, giving all which he requires. I count it a peculiar benefaction that a cheap edition of this work is now given to the public by a publisher whose heart is in it, making it possible for all men to possess it and for the friends of peace to circulate it by the thousand. I trust that they will earnestly unite to do it. The Peace cause has suffered because so much of its best literature is not available in attractive and cheap form and is not widely circulated. This need we are assured is now to be effectively met; and the present publication is surely a good beginning.

The matter of really greatest moment in our time for the student of War and the worker for Peace has not been the war in South Africa nor the war in the Philippines, but the Hague Conference. The Hague Conference did not come into existence without ancestry, without intellectual forces which made it imperative and certain. It came not simply because the Czar sent out his Rescript; it was because the Czar himself had been converted, that commanding intellectual forces had been in operation in Russia. I think there was none of these intellectual forces more potent than that exerted by Jean de Bloch. Bloch’s book was an epoch-making book. It startled the Czar and his ministers; it startled all serious thinkers in Europe; it was one of the cardinal forces that compelled the Conference at the Hague. At that Conference, in a private and unofficial capacity, Bloch himself was present throughout. He always declined the honor paid lim of having suggested the Conference to the Czar by his book; the idea he declared was the result of general evolution, which was forcing upon all serious minds the conviction of the folly and impossibility of continuing the war system.

If ever a man is born under conditions which naturally compel him to think of the tragedies of war, of its horrors and burdens, and of the evils of those race antagonisms which so often lead to war, I think it must be a Polish Jew. The very word Jew brings up the thought of the sufferings, the social and political ostracism, the injustices and wrongs of every sort, which have been the lot of the Jew through all these centuries. The name of Poland reminds us equally impressively of those scarce slumbering hatreds and

Bloch, unlike most peace men, was one of the most critical students of military affairs; he met the military men upon their own ground. He lectured last summer to the United Service Institution in London, a body of military experts, with a major-general in the chair; and he proved himself the superior of those practical and learned military men upon every technical point, and worsted them in the debate.

In the last years of Bloch’s life he was engaged chiefly in drawing from the South African War the warning lessons which the world needs to learn. He has shown that the Boers have been so successful not, as has been often said, because of the topography of the country or because they are particularly good marksmen, but because they have profited by the utterly changed conditions of war. Bloch shows that the fundamental change came in with the American Civil War. The American Civil War, he was never tired of telling the people of Europe, settled it that the alleged superiority of disciplined armies over volunteer troops amounts to nothing; that the ordinary military training is often a positive disadvantage in preparing for modern warfare. War is no longer the clash of solid phalanxes with solid phalanxes in showy, heroic combat upon battlefields. | Cavalry and artillery are rapidly becoming useless. Soldiers cannot be, compacted, but must be spread apart, and each must rely upon himself as never before. One man in defence is a match for ten in offence; the methods of guerilla warfare become more and more common and necessary; and the civilian soldier, the simple volunteer, is as good as the regular, and often better.

This is a thing of immense moment; for if it is true it makes the whole effort to maintain great armaments a vain thing. Robert Peel said with discernment that, instead of wasting the resources of a country to maintain great armies and navies, the sensible nation in the future will rely upon its own latent energies, perfectly sure that if it has inherent energy it can always improvise powers necessary for any defence at very short notice. There is no practical demand or excuse longer for costly armies and navies; all this great armament is waste. Bloch has shown that thing to the modern world,—that from the scientific point of view armies and navies are not a source of strength to any nation, but rather a source of weakness; that they do not defend, but rather drain and endanger. He has not been answered; I do not believe he can be answered. We are his debtors,—the foolish and long-suffering world is his debtor,—for the thoroughness and power with which he has taught this great lesson.

“The Future of War’ was but the culmination of M. Bloch’s remarkable activities in his life’s campaign for peace and an organized world. His articles in the reviews and magazines—Russian, French, German and English—were innumerable. His impressive article upon “Mailitarism in Politics,” in the last December number of the Contemporary Review, should be read by all Americans as well as by all Englishmen, at this time. His earlier article in the same review (September, 1901) on “The Wars of the Future” is the most striking statement in brief of the main principles of his great book; it should be printed as a tract and scattered ‘broadcast up and down the land. Another powerful statement of his position has appeared in our own North American Review since his death (April, 1902).

Bloch was not only present at the Hague during the Conference, but at Paris during the Exposition, always indefatigable in his work of enlightenment. When necessary he took the platform; and so it was that we had the privilege of seeing and meeting him when he came to London last summer to deliver his lectures on the Transvaal War before the Royal United Service Institution, to which I have referred. After one of these lectures he invited us to a personal meeting; and at this meeting he unfolded with great earnestness his scheme for having established at several of the world’s leading centres what he called War and Peace Institutions. These were to be large museums, in which, by pictures, panoramas, models, charts and many means, the real character and significance of modern warfare should be brought home to the actual perception of men and women, who now for the most part have no adequate comprehension of what war is. Especially did he wish to have the practical and economic aspects emphasized, to make men see how and why, in the changed military conditions, a really successful war on the part of one great power upon another really great power is impossible.

At the time of his death M. Bloch was actually engaged in the establishment of the first of these remarkable museums at Lucerne; and he provided for its generous endowment. He chose Lucerne as a point to begin, since it is a place so much visited, and he felt that the knowledge of the work would spread thence to all the world, and the work be largely copied. He had secured a large and imposing building at Lucerne and was prosecuting the work of preparation at large personal expense; for M. Bloch was a man of great wealth, and put much money, as well as thought and zeal, into his peace propaganda.

He was anxious that what he was planning in Lucerne should also be done in London; and he gave me a long typewritten outline of his scheme to submit to William Mather, George Cadbury and other leading peace,men in England, whose cooperation might be enlisted. I believe that London will yet have such an institution. I sincerely hope that America will have such a one; and this was M. Bloch’s earnest desire. He spoke of New York and Washington as appropriate locations; and in one of these cities, through the munificence of some one of our haters of war and lovers of peace, who could certainly put a half million dollars to no more useful or necessary service to-day, this institution should surely rise and continue to teach its lessons until they are no longer needed.

I wish that it might be founded now, while the workers for peace through all the world are mourning for Bloch, as a strong assurance that his work and influence shall be perpetuated and shall grow. I wish that in memory of him it might ‘be called simply The Bloch Institution. I wish that the things which he suggests in the outline which he prepared, and which I hope will soon be published, might all be carried out; and I wish that, in sympathetic hands, catching his great inspiration, the institution might be developed with a fulness of which even he hardly dreamed. I wish that one great hall might be devoted to copies of all of Verestchagin’s pictures, and that other halls might serve similar ends. I wish that year by year addresses might be given at the institution by the world’s best thinkers in behalf of a rationally organized world; that peace and arbitration conferences might there be regularly held; that from that centre all the world’s best literature upon this commanding interest might be widely circulated; and that useful publications might there have their source. I can think of no institution that would be of greater service in America at this time. I can think of no worthier monument which we could rear to Jean de Bloch. His noblest and immortal monument he has himself created in his great work on “The Future of War.”

Epwin D. MEAD.

CONVERSATIONS WITH M. BLOCH

By Witiram T. Sreap

“The Future of War” ts the title of M. de Bloch’s voluminous cyclopedia on the art of war, past, present, and to come. But that 1s a mistake. For M. Bloch's thesis 1s that there 1s no war to cone, that war indeed has already become impossible. Lt would really have been clearer therefore to call this translation of the stxth and concluding volume of his tmmense book ‘ls War Now Lmposstble ?”—as tn the Finglish edttecon,—for thes trtle gives a much clearer rdea of the contents. for M. Bloch contends tn all sober seriousness that war— great war in the usual acceptation of the word— has already, by the natural and normal development of the art or science of warfare, become a physical tmpossibility / Lhat 1s what this book was written to prove.

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