Political Arithmetick

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LET this Book called Political Arithmetick, which was long since Writ by Sir William Petty deceased, be Printed. | Given at the Court at Whitehall the 7th Day of Novemb. 1690. | Nottingham.

Political Arithmetick, | OR | A DISCOURSE | Concerning, | The Extent and Value of Lands, People, Buildings; Husbandry, Manufacture, Commerce, Fishery, Artizans, Seamen, Soldiers; Publick Revenues, Interest, Taxes, Superlucration, Registries, Banks; Valuation of Men, Increasing of Seamen, of Militia's, Harbours, Situation, Shipping, Power at Sea, &c. As the same relates to every Country in general, but more particularly to the Territories of His Majesty of Great Britain, and his Neighbours of Holland, Zealand, and France. | By Sir WILLIAM PETTY, | Late Fellow of the Royal Society. | London, Printed for Robert Clavel at the Peacock, and Hen. Mortlock at the Phœnix in St. Paul's Church-yard. 1690.

NOTE ON THE "POLITICAL ARITHMETICK."

The Political Arithmetick, like the Political Anatomy, belongs to the third period of Petty's literary activity and was written during his second prolonged residence in Ireland. The precise date of its composition cannot now be determined. The Rawlinson MS. is dated 1671, and in Petty's "Collection of [his] several Works" it is likewise entered under 1671. Lord Edmond Fitzmaurice accordingly says that it was written in that year, and his opinion is confirmed by Sir Peter Pett, who calls the Political Arithmetick a "manuscript discourse in the year 1671— 2". But Petty's list is not infallible. It enters under 1654 the Discourse against the Transplantation into Connaught published in 1655, and under 1671 the Anatomia Politica Hiberniae, which was not finished before the close of 1672. The date 1671 is, perhaps, that at which Petty began the Political Arithmetick. He was still working upon it at the end of 1672, and internal evidence points to its completion not earlier than 1676. This internal evidence is drawn from three passages whose indications pretty closely coincide: 1st, the expenditure of the King of France "in any of these last seven years" is compared with his revenue "as the same appears by the book entitled The State of France... printed anno 1669"; 2nd, "since the year 1636, the taxes and public levies... have been prodigiously greater,... yet the kingdoms have increased in their wealth and strength for these last forty years"; 3rd, "his Majesty's navy is now triple or quadruple what it was forty years since, and before the Sovereign was Built." The "Sovereign of the Seas" was launched 14 October, 1637. These three passages, which all point to 1676 or 1677, occur in the Rawlinson MS. as well as in the undated Southwell MS., and the 1690 edition. The opinion that the Political Arithmetick was completed at a date later than the Political Anatomy is also confirmed by the larger estimate of the population of Ireland which the Arithmetick makes.

Of the numerous MSS. of the Political Arithmetick, by far the most important is that bound in the same volume with the MS. Treatise of Ireland, and called by Lord Edmond Fitzmaurice the Neligan MS. The history of this MS. is similar to that of the Southwell MS. of the Political Anatomy already traced. It was given to Sir Robert Southwell by Petty and remained in Southwell's family until purchased by Thorpe at the De Clifford sale in 1834. It passed into Dr Neligan's possession, and after his death it was bought for the British Museum becoming Additional MS. 21,128. In view of its history, I call it the Southwell MS., and refer to it in the footnotes as S. This MS. is not so neatly written as the Southwell Political Anatomy; the ink is similar but the paper is of a different size, and it has one similar and one different watermark. The corrections are far more numerous, and are unmistakably in Petty's hand. It may be the very same MS. which Petty corrected for Southwell in March, 1681 and wished to have compared with "what goeth abroad." If it be the same, Petty 's wish is at length fulfilled: the readings of the Southwell MS. are now compared with the text that went forth in 1690 wherever the differences between them are significant. But mere variations in spelling and minor grammatical differences (like "hath" for "has") are disregarded, and the punctuation of the MS. is noted only where it gives the passage a meaning different from that of the printed version. All Petty's corrections are noted.

Among the remaining MSS. perhaps the most interesting is one endorsed "Pettys Pl. Arithmetic I take to be Corrected by Sr Wm himself having formerly seen a good deal of his Hand Writing," now among the Rawlinson MSS. in the Bodleian Library. The MS. is in two hands, that of the second copyist beginning with chapter five. Petty's corrections are few compared with those in the Southwell MS., and most of them are merely formal, such as changing "300,000" to "300 Thousand." The more important variations marked R, are given in the foot notes. A transcript of the Political Arithmetick, presented by Willoughby, is in the Library of Trinity College, Dublin. It contains no corrections by Petty. A transcript in quarto, made for Essex, is, or was, at Ashburnham Place, and the British Museum has, in addition to the Southwell MS., a comparatively worthless copy, unintelligently abridged. Besides these, a MS. of the Political Arithmetick was presented by Petty to the King and both Sir Joseph Williamson and Sir Peter Pett had MSS. of it.

Manuscript copies of the Political Arithmetick being thus circulated among Petty's friends, soon after its composition, they seem to have urged him to publish it at once. A letter to Southwell in reply to some such request was once in the possession of Thomas Thorpe, who described it as discussing the printing [reprinting] of the Treatise of Taxes, the Polltical Arithmetick, and the translation of the 104th psalm, "which Petty here expresses his reluctance to be printed." The unauthorized reprinting of the Treatise of Taxes in 1679 apparently convinced Petty that it was safer to have his books printed under supervision, for he subsequently wrote to Aubrey, 12 July, 1681, that he was not forward to print the Political Arithmetick but did wish that what went abroad might be compared with the copy in Southwell's possession, which he had corrected in March. In this letter there is no hint of the reason for nonpublication which Lord Shelbume advances, and Petty's care to secure a good text indicates that he expected the book to be published soon. Nearly a year after the letter to Aubrey, Petty came to London, where he remained until the summer of 1683, being occupied about the reform of the Irish revenues. It was probably about this time that he wrote the dedication of the Political Arithmetick to the King, and presented his Majesty with a copy of the book in MS. He appears, however, presently to have abandoned the project of publication, and there can be little doubt that the ill-printed edition of the Political Arithmetick which was soon anonymously issued under the title of England's Guide to Industry, appeared without his consent.

After Petty's death the demand for an authentic edition of the Political Arithmetick was renewed, and Lady Petty, who was executrix of her husband's will, asked Southwell's advice in the matter. Sir William himself, so she wrote, would not suffer the book to be printed, wherefore she was very loath to do it upon any account whatsoever, unless it were to prevent a greater evil. She was told, however, that five hundred false copies were in circulation and that the book would be published to disadvantage unless she authorized the printing of it. Southwell's reply is not preserved, but inasmuch as the Political Arithmetick was issued in 1690 with a dedication written by Lady Petty's son, it may be inferred that her scruples were at length overcome.

TO THE

KING'S

Most Excellent

MAJESTY.

SIR,

WHilest every one meditates some fit Offering for Your Majesty, such as may best agree with your happy || Exaltation to this Throne; I presume to offer, what my Father long since writ, to shew the weight and importance of the English Crown.

It was by him stiled Political Arithmetick, in as much as things of Government, and of no less concern and extent, than the Glory of the Prince, and the happiness and greatness of the People, are by the Ordinary Rules of Arithmetick, brought into a sort of Demonstration, He was allowed by all, to be the Inventor of this Method of Instruction; where || the perplexed and intricate ways of the World, are explain'd by a very mean peice of Science; and had not the Doctrins of this Essay offended France, they had long since seen the light, and had found Followers, as well as improvements before this time, to the advantage perhaps of Mankind.

But this has been reserved to the felicity of Your Majesty's Reign, and to the expectation which the Learned have therein; and if while in this, I do some honor to the Memory of a good Father, I || can also pay Service, and some Testimony of my Zeal and Reverence to so great a King, it will be the utmost Ambition of

,

Your Majesty's Most Dutiful

and Most Obedient Subject,

Shelborne.

PREFACE.

Forasmuch as Men, who are in a decaying condition, or who have but an ill opinion of their own Concernments, instead of being (as some think) the more industrious to resist the Evils they apprehend, do contrariwise become the more languid and ineffectual in all their Endeavours, neither caring to attempt or prosecute even the probable means of their relief. Upon this Consideration, as a Member of the Common- Wealth, next to knowing the precise Truth in what condition the common Interest stands, I would in all doubtful Cases think || the best, and consequently not despair, without strong and manifest Reasons, carefully examining whatever tends to lessen my hopes of the publick Welfare.

I have therefore thought fit to examin the following Perswasions, which I find too currant in the World, and too much to have affected the Minds of some, to the prejudice of all, viz.

That the Rents of Lands are generally fall'n; that therefore, and for many other Reasons, the whole Kingdom grows every day poorer and poorer; that formerly it abounded with Gold, but now there is a great scarcity both of Gold and Silver; that there is no Trade nor Employment for the People, and yet that the Land is under-peopled; that Taxes have been many and || great; that Ireland and the Plantations in America and other Additions to the Crown, are a Burthen to England; that Scotland is of no Advantage; that Trade in general doth lamentably decay; that the Hollanders are at our heels, in the race of Naval Power; the French grow too fast upon both, and appear so rich and potent, that it is but their Clemency that they do not devour their Neighbors; and finally, that the Church and State of England, are in the same danger with the Trade of England; with many other dismal Suggestions, which I had rather stifle than repeat.

'Tis true, the Expence of foreign Commodities hath of late been too great; much of our Plate, had it remain'd Money, would have bet-||ter served Trade; too many Matters have been regulated by Laws, which Nature, long Custom, and general Consent, ought only to have governed; the Slaughter and Destruction of Men by the late Civil Wars and Plague have been great; the Fire at London, and Disaster at Chatham, have begotten Opinions in the Vulgus of the World to our Prejudice; the Nonconformists increase; the People of Ireland think long of their Settlement; the English there apprehend themselves to be Aliens, and are forced to seek a Trade with Foreigners, which they might as well maintain with their own Relations in England. But notwithstanding all this (the like whereof was always in all Places), the Buildings of London grow great and glorious; the American Planta-||tions employ four Hundred Sail of Ships; Actions in the East-India Company are near double the principal Money; those who can give good Security, may have Money under the Statute- Interest; Materials for building (even Oaken-Timber) are little the dearer, some cheaper for the rebuilding of London; the Exchange seems as full of Merchants as formerly; no more Beggars in the Streets, nor executed for Thieves, than heretofore; the Number of Coaches, and Splendor of Equipage exceeding former Times; the publique Theatres very magnificent; the King has a greater Navy, and stronger Guards than before our Calamities; the Clergy rich, and the Cathedrals in repair; much Land has been improved, and the Price of Food so reasonable, as that Men refuse || to have it cheaper, by admitting of Irish Cattle; And in brief, no Man needs to want that will take moderate pains. That some are poorer than others, ever was and ever will be: And that many are naturally querulous and envious, is an Evil as old as the World.

These general Observations, and that Men eat, and drink, and laugh as they use to do, have encouraged me to try if I could also comfort others, being satisfied my self, that the Interest and Affairs of England are in no deplorable Condition.

The Method I take to do this, is not yet very usual; for instead of using only comparative and superlative Words, and intellectual Arguments, I have taken the course (as a Specimen of the Political A-||rithmetick I have long aimed at) to express my self in Terms of Number, Weight, or Measure; to use only Arguments of Sense, and to consider only such Causes, as have visible Foundations in Nature; leaving those that depend upon the mutable Minds, Opinions, Appetites, and Passions of particular Men, to the Consideration of others: Really professing my self as unable to speak satisfactorily upon those Grounds (if they may be call'd Grounds), as to foretel the cast of a Dye; to play well at Tennis, Billiards, or Bowles, (without long practice,) by virtue of the most elaborate Conceptions that ever have been written De Projectilibus & Missilibus, or of the Angles of Incidence and Reflection.||

Now the Observations or Positions expressed by Number, Weight, and Measure, upon which I bottom the ensuing Discourses, are either true, or not apparently false, and which if they are not already true, certain, and evident, yet may be made so by the Sovereign Power, Nam id certum est quod certum reddi potest, and if they are false, not so false as to destroy the Argument they are brought for; but at worst are sufficient as Suppositions to shew the way to that Knowledge I aim at. And I have withal for the present confined my self to the Ten principal Conclusions hereafter particularly handled, which if they shall be judged material, and worthy of a better Discussion, I hope all ingenious and candid Persons will rectifie the Errors, Defects, and || Imperfections, which probably may be found in any of the Positions, upon which these Ratiocinations were grounded. Nor would it misbecome Authority it self, to clear the Truth of those Matters which private Endeavours cannot reach to.||

THE

Principal Conclusions

OF THIS

TREATISE

ARE,

CHAP. 1. That a small Country, and few People, may by their Situation, Trade, and Policy, be equivalent in Wealth and Strength, to a far greater People, and Territory. And particularly, How conveniences for Shipping, and Water Carriage, do most Eminently, and Fundamentally, conduce thereunto.

Pag. 1 [249]

Chap. II. That some kind of Taxes, and Publick Levies, may rather increase than diminish the Common-Wealth.

pag. 35 [268]

Chap. III. That France cannot, by reason of Natural and Perpetual Impediments, be more powerful at Sea, than the English, or Hollanders.

51 [278]

Chap. IV. That the People, and Territories of the King of England, are Naturally near as considerable, for Wealth, and Strength, as those of France.

pag. 64 [284]

Chap. V. That the Impediments of Englands Greatness, are but contingent and removeable.

pag. 87 [298]

Chap. VI. That the Power and Wealth of England, hath increased above this forty years.

pag. 96 [302]

Chap. VII. That one tenth part, of the whole Expence, of the King of England's Subjects; is sufficient to maintain one hundred thousand Foot, thirty thousand Horse, and forty thousand Men at Sea, and to defray all other Charges, of the Government: both Ordinary and Extraordinary, if the same were regularly Taxed, and Raised.

pag. 101 [305]

Chap. VIII. That there are spare Hands enough among the King of England's Subjects, to earn two Millions per annum, more than they now do, and there are Employments, ready, || proper, and sufficient, for that purpose.

pag. 104 [307]

Chap. IX. That there is Mony sufficient to drive the Trade of the Nation.

pag. 110 [310]

Chap. X. That the King of England's Subjects, have Stock, competent, and convenient to drive the Trade of the whole Commercial World.

pag. 112 [311]

ERRATA.

PAge 7. line 25. read the Rent. p. 8. l. 21. r. a part. p. 20. l. 3. r. for cheap. p. 21. l. 14. r. cold, moist. p. 26. l. 7. r. that Church. p. 32. l. 7. r. yearly profit. l. 18. r. to be the value. p. 47. l. 4. r. fifty thousand. l. 28. r. sixteen thousand. p. 49. l. 13. r. the said half together. p. 52. l. 6. r. should bring. p. 59. l. 24. r. they coast. p. 72. l. 8. r. or above. p. 91. l. 9. r. Exotics. p. 95. l. 13. r. paying for.

Chapter I

That a small Country and few People, by its Situation, Trade, and Policy, may be equivalent in Wealth and Strength, to a far greater People and Territory: And particularly that conveniencies for Shipping and Water-Carriage, do most Eminently and Fundamentally conduce thereunto.

THis first principal Conclusion by reason of its length, I consider in three Parts; whereof the first is, That a small Country and few People, may be equivalent in Wealth and Strength to a far greater People and Territory.

This part of the first principal Conclusion needs little proof; forasmuch as one Acre of Land, may bear as much Corn, and feed as many Cattle as twenty, by the difference of the Soil; some parcel of Ground is naturally so defensible, as that an Hundred Men being pos-|[2]|sessed thereof, can resist the Invasion of Five Hundred; and bad Land may be improved and made good; Bog may by draining be made Meadow; Heath-land may (as in Flanders) be made to bear Flax and Clover-grass, so as to advance in value from one to an Hundred; The same Land being built upon, may centuple the Rent which it yielded as Pasture; one Man is more nimble, or strong, and more patient of labor than another; one Man by Art may do as much work, as many without it; viz. one Man with a Mill can grind as much Corn, as twenty can pound in a Mortar; one Printer can make as many Copies, as an Hundred Men can write by hand; one Horse can carry upon Wheels, as much as Five upon their Backs; and in a Boat, or upon Ice, as Twenty: So that I say again, this first point of this general Position, needs little or no proof. But the second and more material part of this Conclusion is, that this difference in Land and People, arises principally from their Situation, Trade, and Policy.|[3]|

To clear this, I shall compare Holland and Zealand, with the Kingdom of France, viz. Holland and Zealand do not contain above one Million of English Acres, whereas the Kingdom of France contains above 80.

Now the Original and Primitive difference holds proportion as Land to Land, for it is hard to say, that when these places were first planted, whether an Acre in France was better than the like quantity in Holland and Zealand nor is there any reason to suppose, but that therefore upon the first Plantation, the number of Planters was in Proportion to the quantity of Land; wherefore, if the People are not in the same proportion as the Land, the same must be attributed to the Scituation of the Land, and to the Trade and Policy of the People superstructed thereupon.

The next thing to be shewn is, that Holland and Zealand at this day, is not only an eightieth part as rich and strong as France, but that it hath advanced to one third or thereabouts, which I think will appear upon the Ballance of the following particulars, viz. |[4]|

As to the Wealth of France, a certain Map of that That the Kingdom, set forth Anno 1647. represents it to be fifteen Millions, whereof six did belong to the Church, the Author thereof (as I suppose) meaning the Rents of the Lands only: And the Author of a most Judicious discourse of Husbandry (supposed to be Sir Richard Weston,) doth from reason and experience shew, that Lands in the Netherlands, by bearing Flax, Turneps, Clover-grass, Madder, &c. will easily yield 10l. per Acre; so as the Territories of Holland and Zealand, should by his account yield at least Ten Millions per annum, yet I do not believe the same to be so much, nor France so little as abovesaid, but rather, that one bears to the other as about 7, or 8 to 1.

The People of Amsterdam, are one third of those in Paris or London, which two Cities differ not in People a twentieth part from each other, as hath appeared by the Bills of Burials and Christnings for each. But the value of the Buildings in Amsterdam, may well be half that of Paris, by reason of the Foundations, Grafts, and Bridges, which |[5]| in Amsterdam are more numerous and chargeable than at Paris. Moreover the Habitations of the poorest People in Holland and Zealand are twice or thrice as good as those of France; but the People of the one to the People of the other, being but as thirteen to one, the value of the housing must be as about five to one.

The value of the Shipping of Europe, being about two Millions of Tuns, I suppose the English have Five Hundred Thousand, the Dutch Nine Hundred Thousand, the French an Hundred Thousand, the Hamburgers, and the Subjects of Denmark, Sweden, and the Town of Dansick two Hundred and Fifty Thousand, and Spain, Portugal, Italy, &c. two Hundred and Fifty Thousand; so as the Shipping in our case of France to that of Holland and Zealand, is about one to nine, which reckoned as great and small, new and old, one with another at 8l. per Tun, makes the worth to be as Eight Hundred Thousand Pounds, to Seven Millions, and Two Hundred Thousand Pounds. The Hollanders Capital in the East-India Company, is worth above Three |[6]| Millions; where the French as yet have little or nothing.

The value of the Goods exported out of France into all Parts, are supposed Quadruple to what is sent to England alone; and consequently in all about Five Millions, but what is exported out of Holland into England is worth Three Millions; and what is exported thence into all the World besides, is sextuple to the same.

The Monies Yearly raised by the King of France, as the same appears by the Book intituled (The State of France) Dedicated to the King, Printed Anno 1669. and set forth several times by Authority, is 82000000 of French Livers, which is about 6½ Millions of Pounds Sterling, of which summ the Author says, that one fifth part was abated for non-valuers or Insolvencies, so (as I suppose) not above Five Millions were effectually raised: But whereas some say, that the King of France raised Eleven Millions as the 1/5 of the effects of France; I humbly affirm, that all the Land and Sea Forces, all the Buildings and Entertainments, which we have heard by common Fame, to have been |[7]| set forth and made in any of these seven last Years, needed not to have cost six Millions Sterling; wherefore, I suppose he hath not raised more, especially since there were one fifth Insolvencies, when the Tax was at that pitch. But Holland and Zealand, paying 67 of the 100, paid by all the United Provinces, and the City of Amsterdam paying 27 of the said 67; It follows that if Amsterdam hath paid 4000l. Flemish per diem, or about 1400000l. per annum, or 800000l. Sterling; that all Holland and Zealand, have paid 2100000l. per annum: Now the reasons why I think they pay so much, are these, viz.

1. The Author of the State of the Netherlands saith so.

2. Excise of Victual at Amsterdam, seems above half the Original value of the same, viz.

Ground Corn pays 20 Stivers the Bushel, or 63 Gilders the Last; Beer 113 Stivers the Barrel, Housing 1/6 of Rent, Fruit 1/8 of what it cost; other Commodities 1/7, 1/8, 1/9, 1/12; Salt ad libitum, all weighed Goods pay besides the Premisses a vast summ; now if the expence of the People of Amsterdam at a medi-|[8]|um, and without Excise were 8l. per annum per annum, whereas in England 'tis 7l. then if all the several Imposts above named, raise it Five Pound more, there being 160000 Souls in Amsterdam, the summ of 800000l. Sterling per annum will thereby be raised.

3. Though the expence of each head, should be 13l. per annum; 'tis well known that there be few in Amsterdam, who do not earn much more than the said expence.

4. If Holland and Zealand pay p. an. 2100000l. then all the Provinces together, must pay about 3000000l. less than which summ per annum, perhaps is not sufficient to have maintained the Naval War with England, 72000 Land Forces, besides all other the ordinary Charges of their Government, whereof the Church is there apart: To conclude, it seems from the Premisses, that all France doth not raise above thrice as much from the publick charge, as Holland and Zealand alone do.

5. Interest of Money in France, is 7l. per cent. but in Holland scarce half so much. |[9]|

6. The Countries of Holland and Zealand; consisting as it were of Islands guarded with the Sea, Shipping, and Marshes, is defensible at one fourth of the charge, that a plain open Country is, and where the feat of War may be both Winter and Summer; whereas in the others, little can be done but in the Summer only.

7. But above all the particulars hitherto considered, that of superlucration ought chiefly to be taken in; for if a Prince have never so many Subjects, and his Country be never so good, yet if either through sloth, or extravagant expences, or Oppression and Injustice, whatever is gained shall be spent as fast as gotten, that State must be accounted poor; wherefore let it be considered, how much or how many times rather, Holland and Zealand are now above what they were 100 years ago, which we must also do of France: Now if France hath scarce doubled its Wealth and Power, and that the other have decupled theirs; I shall give the preference to the latter, even although the 9/10 increased by the one, should not exceed the one half gained by the other, |[10]| because one has a store for Nine Years, the other but for one.

To conclude, upon the whole it seems, that though France be in People to Holland and Zealand as 13 to 1, and in quantity of good Land, as 80 to one, yet it is not 13 times richer and stronger, much less 80 times, nor much above thrice, which was to be proved.

Having thus dispatched the two first Branches of the first Principal conclusion; it follows, to shew that this difference of Improvement in Wealth and Strength, arises from the Situation, Trade, and Policy of the places respectively; and in particular from Conveniencies for Shipping and Water Carriage.

Many Writing on this Subject do so magnifie the Hollanders as if they were more, and all other Nations less than Men (as to the matters of Trade and Policy) making them Angels, and others Fools, Brutes, and Sots, as to those particulars; whereas I take the Foundation of their atchievements to lie originally in the Situation of the Country, whereby they do things inimitable by others, and have advantages whereof others are incapable. |[11]|

First, The Soil of Holland and Zealand is low Land, Rich and Fertile; whereby it is able to feed many Men, so as that Men may live near each other, for their mutual assistance in Trade. I say, that a Thousand Acres, that can feed 1000 Souls, is better than 10000 Acres of no more effect, for the following reasons, viz.

1. Suppose some great Fabrick were in Building by a Thousand Men, shall not much more time be spared if they lived all upon a Thousand Acres, then if they were forced to live upon ten times as large a Scope of Land.

2. The charge of the cure of their Souls, and the Ministry would be far greater in one case than in the other; as also of mutual defence in case of Invasion, and even of Thieves and Robbers: Moreover the charge of the administration of Justice would be much easier, where Witnesses and Parties may be easily Summoned, Attendance less expensive, when Mens Actions would be better known, when wrongs and injuries could not be covered, as in thin peopled places they are. |[12]|

Lastly, those who live in Solitary places, must be their own Soldiers, Divines, Physicians, and Lawyers; and must have their Houses stored with necessary Provisions (like a Ship going upon a long Voyage,) to the great wast, and needless expence of such Provisions. The value of this first convenience to the Dutch, I reckon or estimate to be about 100000l. per annum.