Water interactions

Front matter

©2022 The Author(s)

This is an Open Access book distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives Licence (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0), which permits copying and redistribution in the original format for non-commercial purposes, provided the original work is properly cited. (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). This does not affect the rights licensed or assigned from any third party in this book.

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Contents

Preface scx o. eek e Eur er wer eka E ree e Re e ate XV Chapter 1 Introduction — setting the scene... eese 1 l1 Where. We ate Today sic serris sede eR pL tU RE e ep Rr 1 L2. How WeGotHereé.ossilerrete x eed Re EX ERES E N xe 2 135 “Goins from, Here... slduac e py ee a RUPEE ERR e RPESRE 4 L4 .Sonie SCenarlO8 sspe ee eaaa PIRA RU A I S RE PUERO CR 4 14.1 Fossil fuels |... oos scade d Rer ete es 5 L42. JRo0d sve Gat RAE ULIS Ote US 6 LAA- ECONOMICS: diaeta aeter uo UN reis ete dep. 7 1.5. Overview of the Book ..:..450c0gs cesses e re Pepe bod deren 7 Chapter 2 Systems thinking veo eR e ERR SEE VER RR 11 21 “Systemic: Approach i. icr eb cee eds bo E Rae 12 2:2. Feedback: eos svwatee spa OO ean ee saw A eb PE a as 15 2.3. Wicked Problems: o oneni iena e RS Re RPSCPER 15 24. JHyperobjects-c. ue etre teet ximo puede adde eds 16 vi

Chapter 3 Climate today sss RR Binds oA Pee wea US 19 5.1 The 1992 RIO Conference eisers terier Eeee aioa ee 21 35,9. QClimate.PIOneers 2 ior Rp ERE GPCH RHEIN UE der 26 5.5. The CO;Budget....enc4 i gead bU pese dade ete dee ee od 28 3.6. The .COP26 Agreements... oet evt IPDTUESEERLPORMEREES 29 57 Deforestation... cc04 coveot TENE EER E PEM tR eee a Keeley ARA 31 3.8 Actions Needed sectie irpan ereton iina aE AEAEE E 34 Chapter 4 Global warming impacts |... 35 42 Weathervs Climate .2 2... .cc4000heeoun ih E egre Geueeeaes 37 45. Extreme Weathefc. esee opu wr ctt Shia SO ac E RN VOR ER ams 38 44 Temperaturë c oueoeer ces xe rer Sarees Goda EUR a ES ee a ee 42 45. ‘Rossby Waves + soo ois E eane et ERR ae c PRU te eae 45 46- Droüghis:.. cad ir uee 3i $44 Ya edn oe haa E eed xe 46 4/8. “Precipitation: «4 deris Re wPPPRSESOD ATP Que br SRI Y a ES 48 4:9- Methai: esee nnnc te aree een en aetna doe std 49 4135 Actions Needed «0.06 e056. 484 nce RR ee EY ER Meee eed oe 55 Chapter 5 51 .HowWeGotLHetre. voe eps es trece ed as oU Fes 59 511 (Drinking Water i... igo oret pR Ore dede Pes 59 DU. SANAN: euo as erac estas aeg o da Rut iE RS RU cs 60 5.1.3. Water stress ledere erin RH eee abu E UR eS 60 5:2.1. Water quantity icis oe Ee e e SEE I NER GAY eats 61 5.2.2. Water quallly «erret teed eet cides Oe dee peni 65 5.2.8. Water conflicts... iio nex ker eat HU e aad ERAS 67

Contents vii

Preface

The desire to understand was the key driving force to write this book. The world is a complex place with a hodgepodge of interacting problems and possibilities. We are facing complex problems like global warming, climate change, water scarcity, droughts, floods, food crises, energy limitations, air pollution, and absurd economic inequalities between nations and people. Complex problems cannot be solved by looking at one component at a time. Most incidents are connected to others. In our world of specialization, solutions require cooperation, mutual respect, and understanding what to expect from other specialists.

The aim of this book is to demonstrate and describe how climate change, water, energy, food, economics, and lifestyle are intimately interconnected. We - all of us in the global village - depend on each other. This has become so apparent during the pandemic from 2020 onwards. Global warming and its impact on climate will affect every continent and nation and there is no vaccine. We must understand these interconnections and act accordingly.

Deniers do not see the connections or do not wish to understand: rain has fallen for the first time on record at the Greenland Summit Station, the highest point on the Greenland Ice Sheet (3216 metres). On 14 August, 2021, the temperature remained above freezing for about nine hours. The warm air caused extreme rain on the ice sheet - the heaviest rainfall there since record keeping began in 1950, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado. Rain in Iceland is another anomaly where deniers do not recognize projections, couplings to climate or further explanations; the rain can be considered just a fun fact. Isolated from fires in Siberia, floods in Germany, glacial melt, calving of icebergs the size of states, hurricane seasons getting longer and longer, outgassing of methane in the tundra, droughts, overwhelming cold snaps, coral bleaching, fires in the rain forests, and then a little strange rain would be nothing but odd weather. So long as all these events

© 2022 The Author. This is an Open Access book chapter distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licence (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0), which permits copying and redistribution for noncommercial purposes with no derivatives, provided the original work is properly cited (https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). This does not affect the rights licensed or assigned from any third party in this book. The chapter is from the book Water Interactions: A Systemic View, Gustaf Olsson (Author.)

xvi Water Interactions - A Systemic View are separated from one another, they can all be explained away. But taken as a whole, they can only be attributed to a fundamental change on our planet.

Over the years there have been several proposals for specific design solutions, control methods, or operational guides in terms of green technology, water and energy efficiency, food production, geoengineering methods, and space settlements on Mars to solve the environmental and resource problems of a finite Earth. Recalling the famous phrase attributed to Einstein, ‘we cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them; we must become aware of the close couplings. An integrated approach to face the complex challenges is necessary. This includes not only innovative technical solutions but several non-technical issues too. It's equally important to address political, organizational, and economic topics. Changes in our attitudes and lifestyles are crucial if we wish to create a more sustainable use of natural resources. Saving one MW (‘negawatt’) is cheaper than producing one. There is a sense of urgency when we see dwindling water resources in many places and when the increasing use of energy will further aggravate climate change.

Our situation today is not an accident - it is the consequence of the way we think and act. We have failed for decades to act, having listened to scientific evidence of climate change and its causes. It is crucial when getting to know the context, to see the connections, listening not only to lobbyists but to people that are affected by the changes. The Covid-19 pandemic has taught us that we have an interconnectedness and mutual responsibility towards one another and towards our Earth. Caring for our fellow citizens and caring for our environment are the same thing. As expressed by Chief Oren Lyons (Native American Faithkeeper of the Turtle Clan, member of the Indigenous Peoples of the Human Rights Commission of the UN, and professor of American Studies at University of Buffalo, New York): ‘Man sometimes thinks he's been elevated to be the controller, the ruler, but he's not. He's only part of the whole. Man's job is not to exploit, but to oversee, to be a steward. Man has responsibility, not power.

We will describe several examples of our exploitation of nature and our selfdestructive behaviour. Again, Oren has articulated: 'The la says if you poison the water, you'll die. The law says that if you poison the air, you'll suffer. The la says if you degrade where you live, you'll suffer ... If you don’t learn that, you can only suffer. There's no discussion with this law,’

It has been said many times that we have to listen to science to understand dangers and connections. However, we also must look for and recognize dangers that are not described by natural sciences: greed, apathy, and selfishness. Science cannot provide a moral compass for our actions. This must be achieved by cultural and spiritual transformations and then we have to recognize how our economic systems and our lifestyle are intimately connected to climate, water, energy, and food.

The mission of the book is to describe how various objects are related to each other. Unless we understand these couplings, we cannot even start solving the complex problems we face. Various solutions or approaches to solutions presented here will probably not provide any innovative new answers to the

Preface xvii water, energy, food, and economy challenges that we are facing. This herculean task is far too unrealistic for an individual. However, understanding the couplings is an important beginning.

The IPCC Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report was released only a few weeks before the completion of this manuscript. It adds further evidence of the enormous threat that the world is facing from climate change but does not change any of the conclusions and statements made in this book. Our attention concerning the current climate crisis and resource challenges must not be pushed into the background because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. There is a rapidly closing window for climate change action.

Vrángó, Swedish west coast archipelago March 2022 G.O.

Acknowledgements

For decades I have had the privilege to learn from so many people. They have encouraged me, corrected me, and widened my perspective. I have learnt a lot by guiding 23 PhD and hundreds of MSc students in Sweden, and from several other PhD students while a guest professor at Tsinghua University, Beijing, China; Technical University of Malaysia; and at universities in Johannesburg and Cape Town, South Africa.

Allan R. Hoffman, former Senior Analyst, US Department of Energy, was a most influential source of knowledge when I started studying the water-energy nexus. We have remained in contact for more than a decade, and he has generously shared his knowledge and offered me feedback on my ideas and given me new perspectives.

Gianguido Piani was already my co-author more than 30 years ago. He is one of these exceptional renaissance style people with a wide knowledge, not only in technology, but in humanities and language. Having lived in many countries working as an energy and automation specialist, he has given me plenty of new outlooks and a lot of constructive feedback.

Lars Gertmar, my professor colleague at Lund University, Sweden, since the early 1990s, has generously spent a lot of effort to review, correct, and challenge me, given his extensive experience in all kinds of aspects of energy transition, from both industrial and academic environments.

Rune Andersson, professor emeritus in global health and infectious diseases, University of Gothenburg (Góteborg, Sweden), has kindly given me feedback on all the health aspects discussed in the book.

Cello Vitasovic, Los Angeles, USA and Pernille Ingildsen, Denmark, have been my close collaborators for a long time. I first met Cello when he was a PhD student more than 40 years ago. Pernille was my PhD student more than 20 years ago. Our cooperation has continued over the years and resulted in several publications. Both Cello and Pernille have given me a lot of inspiration, joy, new perspectives, and courage to proceed with this work, and have through the writing project offered me many good ideas on how to make the content more relevant.

XX Water Interactions - A Systemic View

Lawrence Jones, Vice President International Programs, Edison Electric Institute, Washington DC, USA, and I have had regular contacts for more than two decades. Lawrence has a true global perspective and knowledge that is a key prerequisite to solve complex problems. His experience and feedback have been invaluable to me in my writing.

Francisco J. Márquez-Fernández, Lund University, has been a great support, given his electrical engineering background. We have penetrated many issues related to the book in our discussions.

Nenibarini Zabbey, University of Port Harcourt, Nigeria, is not only a great colleague since a decade. He has given me a lot of insight in the costs of oil exploration. He is a courageous role model for water professionals.

Mia Engstad and Mikael Engstad in Sweden made me aware of and demonstrated the potential of regenerative farming. This motivated me to study this crucial topic and gave me new perspectives on food production.

Jing Liu has managed to use his scientific knowledge in biotechnology and automation in combination with his leadership of a successful company (BPC Instruments, Lund, Sweden). I have learnt a lot from him during two decades of cooperation.

Margareta Ingelstam, Swedish author and educator, is a pioneer and veteran in the work on peace and nonviolence and a great role model. During the past year I have had the fortune to work closely together with her to explore how experiences from the peacebuilding movement can be applied to education and empowerment on Climate Justice and Climate Security.

And all of you that helped with your conversations, ideas, and encouragement (in alphabetic order): Per Duregard, Lars Franne, Ulf Jeppsson, Leif Nilsson, Lars Odén, Lars Gunnar Sundin (all from Sweden), Zaini Ujang (Malaysia), and Peter Vanrolleghem (Canada).

I had no plan to write a book like this when Mark Hammond, Books Commissioning Editor at IWA Publishing, in 2021 encouraged me to write some extension of my previous books Water and Energy and Clean Water Using Solar and Wind. One probably must be foolhardy to accept, but I could not resist the temptation to try. I wish to thank the cooperative and friendly staff at IWAP.

Kirsti, my patient, incomparable wife, miraculously loves me despite my odd habits of work. Regularly I ask her advice how to describe various phenomena concerning climate, water, energy, and lifestyle. Without her support and understanding I could not have finished this work. And more essential, she provides me with a more complete perspective of life.

And you, my children and grandchildren, you have motivated me to write the book. I tried my best, thinking of your future.

Prologue - Some experiences in my lifetime

What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun. Ecclesiastes 1:9

The awareness that Mother Earth has limited resources is not new. During my life I have gradually learnt how nature, resources, industrial development, and lifestyle are interconnected. I have discovered that at the age of 80+ years I see events and experiences in life in context in a way that I didn't when I was younger. This prologue is a subjective narrative from my lifetime and how I experienced pathways toward today concerning the state of water, energy, climate, population, and food. My aim is to set the scene of today, providing some background information for the rest of the book.

I have lived a privileged life. My family was not wealthy, a typical middleclass Swedish family. Still, compared to most people in this world we have been fortunate. I was born in 1940 in Sweden, in the second year of World War II. Finland was fighting the Soviet Union; some 70 000 Finnish children were brought to Sweden to escape the war (my wife was one of them). Germany had invaded Norway and Denmark, while Sweden managed to escape getting involved in the war. The German offence in Western Europe continued. The Battle of Britain was initiated by Hitler. A Swedish textbook on the German language had the text ‘Der Führer hat Ordnung geschaffen’ (The leader Adolf Hitler has created order). Towards the end of the 1940s the text was changed to ‘Gott hat die Welt geschaffen’ (God has created the world).

1940 global population: 2.4 billion Global CO, concentration: = 280* + 20=300 ppm (parts per million or mg/l) *= the pre-industrial level xxii Water Interactions - A Systemic View

There was a great shortage of gasoline in Sweden during the war and towards the end of the year 1940 all private consumption of gasoline for cars was forbidden. The cars had to be fuelled with wood gas. Towards the end of the war in 1945 I was sufficiently old to remember the wood gas container mounted on the back of our car. There was a special smell of burning and my father had some dirty gloves to handle the container. Fossil fuel consumption was dominated by coal, and our apartment building was heated by coal for the whole decade. I recall how coal was delivered to our building in sacks made of jute fabric. The delivery men were really dirty. Later, when coal was replaced by oil it was praised as a truly clean solution for heating. I was reminded of my childhood when I was working at Tsinghua University in Beijing after 2006. Then the university was still heated by coal. However, all coal-powered energy now has been replaced by natural gas in Beijing.

Many years after my childhood, I studied the geopolitical importance of oil and particularly how energy and oil capacity was a decisive factor in World War II operations. Trucks, tanks, cars, and airplanes needed gasoline. Refined oil was used for making TNT in bombs and synthetic rubber for tyres as well as a lubricant for all kinds of machinery. The American oil industry played a remarkable role by supplying the Allied forces with oil. During the 1950s the USA had provided 5096 of the global oil supply. Oil tankers had been easy targets for German submarines between the Mexican Gulf and the US East Coast. In the early years of World War II two pipelines were built from Texas to the East Coast. They were protected from enemy attack. Oil from the USA provided some 85% of all the oil - around 1.1 billion (10?) m? - used by the Allied Nations during World War II. An apparent reason for the German Army operations in northern Africa led by General Erwin Rommel was to capture the Suez Canal. This would ensure the route to the oil fields of the Middle East. A major driving force for Hitler to invade the Soviet Union in 1941 was to capture the Soviet oil fields in the Caucasus Mountains. This would have given Germany the necessary oil to fuel the German war machine. The German Field-Marshall Karl Gerd Von Rundstedt admitted after the war that German deficiency in oil was a key reason for losing the war.

Also, the War in the Pacific was fundamentally a war over oil resources. Japan lacked its own oil supplies. The USA had been alarmed by Japanese aggression in Asia and all US oil shipments to Japan were ordered to cease in August 1941, four months before Pearl Harbour. Japan invaded colonial Indonesia in March 1942, occupying the Dutch oil fields. For the rest of the war American submarines waged unrestricted attacks against Japanese oil tankers in the Pacific.! Today, as we expand solar and wind, the geopolitical importance of oil ought to decrease.

Even if Sweden was spared from the war there were several consumer restrictions. Private citizens had ration stamps for meat, coffee, sugar, and many other food products. I can vividly recollect my mother telling us to appreciate some special food.

Prologue - Some experiences in my lifetime xxiii

Before I was 5 years old we once travelled some 500 km to the west coast of Sweden. My father was in the military protecting the Swedish border and my mother brought my two elder brothers and me for a short vacation at the seaside. Since travelling was limited also after the end of the war this was felt like an exclusive experience.

In 1948 the family had purchased a little house for summer vacations, located only 8 km away from our town apartment. This meant we all could use bicycles, even if I was only 7 years old. I have clear memories related to water, energy and food. Our town had no biological wastewater treatment plant, and most of the untreated effluent water was flowing into the lake Hjálmaren where we used to swim. My older brother developed serious eczema caused by the polluted water and could not swim for the whole summer. We were reminded all the time to turn off the light when we left any room. Beef was a luxury that we sometimes could get on Sundays.

Since my childhood there has been an incredible development in mobility, which is also reflected in my own life. The family trips until I was almost 15 years were limited to one or two 200 km trips per year to my grandparents. A good friend in my hometown won a competition and earned a trip to Brazil in 1955. This got the attention of the local newspaper and the sensational information that she should bring swimwear in the Swedish winter! My first visit outside Scandinavia took place in 1964, during my fourth year at the Royal Institute of Technology, when we made a study tour by train to Paris and Geneva. Charter flights made travelling by air affordable and in the 1960s we could fly to the Canary Islands in 8 hours in propeller-driven airplanes. Since 1970 I made at least one intercontinental flight every year until I had around 200 flight hours in a year. This made me realize that I was part of the climate problem. Now I have minimized flying, and every trip has to be highly motivated from a climate point of view.

By 1950 I can recall the grown-ups talking about the industrial development after the war. Smokestacks became symbols of development. However, we became aware of air pollution quite early. Close to my hometown an oil shale industry had been established during the war since all import of oil was restricted. The furnaces in Kvarntorp produced as much as 100 000 m? of oil annually. We could smell the air pollution and we saw the slag heap growing. The ash was hot when it was dumped on the heap, some 600°C, so the burning hill emitted a very particular smell. This childhood memory gave me some understanding of pollution caused by fossil fuel extraction. The hill is more than 100 metres high and is now an attraction, being the highest point in the county of Narke in mid-Sweden.

1950 global population: 2.54 billion.

Global CO, concentration: Y 280+ 28=308 ppm xxiv Water Interactions - A Systemic View

During the 1950s the cold war influenced a lot of discussions and fear of a nuclear war was obvious. However, in 1955 a landmark conference was organized by UN, the ‘Conference on the Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy’. This Geneva meeting was the largest scientific meeting ever held, with an estimated 25 000 participants. For me personally it determined my early career. Nuclear power was apparently going to save the world and 9 years later I got my first employment at the Swedish State Power Board (now Vattenfall) as a nuclear engineer.

I comprehended the geopolitical power of oil for the first time in 1956. The Suez crisis started in October, when Israeli armed forces pushed into Egypt toward the Suez Canal after Egyptian president Nasser had nationalized the Canal that controlled the import of two thirds of the European oil. This created a gasoline crisis in Sweden and elsewhere. No private cars were allowed to be used from Saturday night until Monday (Saturday were working days at that time). Our teenager group enjoyed the car-free weekends and the opportunity to walk anywhere in the middle of the main road.

Alarming accidents in Japan got the world's attention in 1956. A lot of people had been seriously sick and even died due to severe mercury poisoning. For years we had noticed with admiration how Japan had raised itself from the catastrophe of the war and developed industrial production at a rate never seen before. Suddenly this picture became stained. Years later we understood the reasons behind and the chain of processes that triggered the tragedy. The diseases and deaths were caused by methylmercury - an extremely toxic organometallic cation [CH4Hg]* - in the industrial wastewater from a chemical factory in Minamata, located on the west coast of the southern Japanese island of Kyushu. The plant had been in operation since 1952 and continued its production until 1968. Some of the mercury sulfate in the wastewater bioaccumulated and biomagnified in shellfish and fish in the Bay and the sea. The local population ate the seafood and got mercury poisoning. Almost 2000 people had died, and several thousand people were the victims. For more than a decade the authorities neglected the problems and did little to prevent the epidemic. The Minamata disaster was a wake-up call that reckless industrial production has a huge price, most often not paid by the industry owners or the customers.?

By the end of the 1950s we were experiencing great optimism about the future. I have a vivid memory of 4 October, 1957, when the Soviet Union launched Sputnik. This was the inauguration of the Space Age, and for a 16-year-old boy this was the realization of science fiction. The satellite circled Earth once every hour and 56 minutes. It was clearly visible before sunrise and after sunset. Our local newspaper published a daily update of the times when Sputnik would be visible. The park near our home was packed with people waiting to see Sputnik. My mother did not believe that man should be in space, so she considered the whole spectacle as fake, at least for the first few weeks. Sputnik initiated the space race, and the USA were caught off-guard by the Soviet technological achievement. John F. Kennedy was elected president in 1960 and became the great hero among young people. Moreover, he declared to 'send a man safely to moon before 1970’.

Prologue - Some experiences in my lifetime XXV

1960 global population: 5.0 billion Global CO, concentration: ~ 280 4-56 — 516 ppm (the first CO, measurements were initiated by Charles David Keeling at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, March, 1958)

The 1960s was also a decade when Earth's limitations were realized and debated.

I have childhood memories of how we used DDT at home to spray in the closets to get rid of the common clothes moth. The memory of the smell is distinct. It was considered an efficient way to protect our clothes. In 1962 Rachel Carson published her revolutionary book Silent Spring. It documented the indiscriminate use of pesticides and accused the chemical industry of spreading disinformation, and public officials of accepting the industry's marketing claims unquestioningly. There are several similarities between this discussion, the dispute about the tobacco industry, and today's debate around climate change and the fossil fuel industry.

In Sweden, much less known internationally, the author Elin Wagner (1882- 1949) had published the book Fred med jorden (Peace with the Earth) already in 1940, during World War II. She wrote about ‘the demands from health and conscience' and criticized the exploration of nature, agricultural land, and human resources, long before ecology and environment were recognized by the general public. Since the World War I she had shown in more than 30 books and numerous articles that three views are closely related: gender equality, peace, and our environment. They depend on each other. Inequality causes war, war destroys human beings, and the environment is ruined if we believe that we can dominate and exploit nature.

In 1965 the Sholapur district in Maharashtra, India, suffered a severe drought having had no rain for 5 years, forcing people to move, causing a crisis in food production, and emergency slaughter of cattle. The Maharashtra Government contacted the Swedish Covenant Church (Svenska Missionsfórbundet) to ask for help. A cooperative effort was initiated, called ‘1000 wells for India’ where the Swedes collected money in their churches and sent volunteers to help. One of the pioneers was Oscar Carlsson together with his wife Ingrid, working in education in India.

Oscar became the leader of a foundation called Sholapur Well Service (SWS). On top of the well digging and drilling the little workshop manufactured hand pumps. Oscar was also an inventor and gradually developed a better pump design, the SWS pump, later pictured on an Indian stamp with the text Safe Water. Well number 1000 was completed in 1974. Lead by the Hindustani Covenant Church more than 3000 wells had been xxvi Water Interactions - A Systemic View completed in 1986. The pump was recognized by UNICEF as a most reliable and cost-effective hand pump, called India Mark II. More than 5 million pumps have been produced and have been used all over India and in more than 50 other countries. Oscar never filed for a patent but wanted the pump to be freely available to anybody in need. He was the first individual to be awarded ‘The Swede of the year in the World' in 1968. I had the privilege getting to know Oscar. In 1981 I got the opportunity to visit Sholapur - invited by another Swedish couple, Eva and Georg Smedberg, working unselfishly for the nonprivileged people - to attend the ceremony in a village where a new pump had been installed. Hundreds of villagers had gathered around the well. To see the first flow of water coming out from the hand pump is one of my most unforgettable moments.

Of course, electric pumps made it possible for so many more people to get access to water. However, replacing hand pumps with electric pumps has created a new problem of overuse.