Trust and Terror

Front matter

TRUST AND TERROR |

Social Capital and the Use of Terrorism” — as a Tool of Resistance Pigs a

Ammar Shamaileh kwa

Introduction

Trust, Terror, and The Arab Spring: Egypt, Libya, and Syria Theory: The Relationship between Trust and Terror

Islamist Political Mobilization in Egypt, Libya, and Syria The Syrian Protester’s Dilemma

Generalized and Particularized Trust and Support for Terrorism: Evidence from Five Arab States

Generalized Interpersonal Trust and the Prevalence of Domestic Terrorist Activity: A Cross-Country Study

Conclusion

Appendix A: Ancillary Analyses for Chapter 3 Appendix B: Ancillary Analyses for Chapter 6 Appendix C: Ancillary Analyses for Chapter 7 References

Index

100 114

117 123 127 130 141

List of illustrations

Figures

3.1

7.4

Prisoner's Dilemma (Self-Interested)

Prisoner's Dilemma (Other-Regarding) Cooperating with Outsiders

Delegated Retribution (Self-Interested)

Delegated Retribution (Other-Regarding)

The Cost of Retribution

Approved Cartoon

Rejected Cartoon

The Illusion of Power

Counting Down the Days

Hitching a Ride with Qaddafi

Predicted Probabilities for Generalized and Particularized Trusters

Generalized Trust and Domestic Terrorism

Trust Above/Below 25% and Domestic Terrorism Economic Development and Domestic Terrorism Government Performance and Domestic Terrorism

Tables

Two-Player Game Payoffs Support for Terror — Summary Statistics

Support for Terror — Ordered Probit Dependent Variable:

Support for Terrorism

Scenario 1: Not Generally Trusting — Scenario 2: Generally Trusting

First Differences — Only Generalized Trust Domestic Terror — Summary Statistics

List of illustrations xi

7.2 Domestic Terror — OLS Regressions with Robust Standard Errors Dependent Variable: Domestic Terrorist Incidents 109 7.3 Domestic Terror — Two-Stage Least-Squares Regression (Second-Stage Results) Dependent Variable: Domestic

Terrorist Incidents 111 7.4 Domestic Terror — Two-Stage Least-Squares Regression

(First-Stage Results) Dependent Variable: Trust 112 A.1 Arab Barometer Key Survey Questions 123 A.2 Additional Robustness Checks Dependent Variable: Support

for Terrorism 125 A.3 Ordered Logit Regression Dependent Variable: Support

for Terrorism 126 A.4 Predicted Probabilities 126 A.5 Two-Stage Least-Squares Regressions (First-Stage Results)

Dependent Variable: Trust 128

A.6 Two-Stage Least-Squares Regressions (Second-Stage Results) Dependent Variable: Domestic Terrorist Incidents 129

Acknowledgments

First and foremost, I would like to thank Jens Grosser for the immense support he has provided me during this project and throughout mv career. Without him, neither this book nor any other scholarly achievement I may accomplish would be possible. He has stood with me through both the good times and the pitfalls that I found myself in during the nascent stages of my academic career, and I am forever indebted to him for his guidance and support. Moreover, the substantive advice he has provided me along the way has greatly enhanced the quality of the work that I have produced.

I would also like to thank Eric Coleman, David Siegel, Mark Souva, and Dmitry Ryvkin for the fantastic feedback they provided me during the early stages of this project. In particular, I would like to thank Eric Coleman for pushing me to think more carefully about the nature of trust; David Siegel for insisting that I reconsider the cases that I had originally intended to analyze, and to more thoroughly conceptualize social capital; Mark Souva for his advice regarding the communication of the ideas within the manuscript and broadening my discussion of the literature; and Dmitry Ryvkin’s fantastic methodological advice. Beyond the assistance they provided me with regard to this project, I benefited from the profound insight and guidance I received in their classrooms, while meeting with them in their offices and through reading their own research. In addition, I would like to thank Sabri Ciftci, Michael Wuthrich, Risa Brooks, Eddie Hearn, Suzanne Kirayoglu, Brad Gomez, Charles Barrilleaux, William Berry, Rob Carroll, Xiaoli Guo, Marius Radean, Jason Gainous, David Buckley, Timothy Weaver, Laura Moyer, Melissa Merry, Rodger Payne, Jason Abbott, Kristopher Grady, Sherri Wallace, and the departments of political science at Florida State University and the University of Louisville for the helpful suggestions and support that they have provided me.

While all of the individuals noted above played a crucial role in my scholarly development, it was my family who made a career in academia a possibility for me. It was my mother, Mayada, who nurtured my love of reading throughout the years and supported my expensive taste in obscure books as a teen; my brother, Amro, who stayed up late at night arguing

Acknowledgments xiii with me about theoretical minutiae; mv sister, Lelas, whose work ethic motivated me to push mvself; mv father, Atef, whose candor never left me wondering where he stood; and mv partner, Hala, who encouraged me to take a break from work in order to finish mv dissertation at the expense of our financial wellbeing. Each of these familv members has contributed to both mv academic and personal development.

There are also a number of individuals who plaved a direct role in helping to make this book possible. Among the most important are the anonymous interviewees who provided me with insights that could not have been gleaned otherwise. Beyond these individuals, I also was able to learn a lot from the people I interacted with in Syria, Jordan, and the West Bank in more casual settings as I developed this project. I would also like to thank Ali Farzat for allowing me to use his cartoons in my manuscript.

Finally, I would like to thank all of the people at Routledge and Taylor & Francis, as well as those associated with the Conceptualising Comparative Politics book series. I was astounded by the efficiency and responsiveness of Natalja Mortensen and Lillian Rand, and am indebted to them for their consistent support. The editors of the book series, Anthony Spanakos and Francisco Panizza, were also very responsive and professional, but I am particularly thankful for them pushing me to focus on the big picture while revising this manuscript. Their input, as well as the input of the two anonymous reviewers, significantly improved the final manuscript. I am also indebted to Jaya Chowdhury, Ruth Bradley, and the production team at Routledge for their guidance and assistance in refining the manuscript. In addition, I would like to thank the book series’ advisory board — Collin Hay, Courtney Jung, Todd Landman, Mark Lichbach, Shinasi Rama, Vivien Schmidt, Till Förster, and Zheng Yongnian — and all of the other individuals who had a hand in making this book possible.

While all of these individuals helped improve the final manuscript, any errors remaining in this book are my own.