Science of Societal Safety

Front matter

Trust: Interdisciplinary Perspectives 2

Seiji Abe Mamoru Ozawa Yoshiaki Kawata Editors

Science of Societal Safety

Preface

The automobile is a convenience of civilization. Accidents that they cause, however, take more than a million lives over the world each year. The Tangshan earthquake in 1976 caused 240,000 to 650,000 deaths in China, and the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake killed as many as 280,000 people. The 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001 to the US World Trade Center and Pentagon left about 3000 people dead. Every year, accidents, natural disasters, terror attack, wars, and other causes leave a large number of victims.

Societal safety science aims at preventing accidents and disasters that threaten human societies, reducing the damages caused by such events, rescuing the victims, and promoting recovery and reconstruction of the disaster-struck areas. It is a new field of study that contributes to the enhancement of societal safety through academic fusion of study fields in natural science, social science, and humanities.

International communities have recognized the importance in taking academic approaches to problems in societal safety. Societal safety science, however, has not quite yet established itself as a new field for studying problems in safety. Kansai University, in Osaka, Japan, proposed the field, for the first time, in 2009 and established a faculty and a graduate school with the same title. The facts tell us that societal safety science is a leading field in the studies of disaster prevention. Countries in northern Europe, however, had proposed a similar research field called societal safety in the late 1990s. Our undergraduate and graduate schools use the name societal safety science that attached “sciences” to the title “societal safety.”

A new study field needs a sufficient accumulation of researches in the field by specialists. Upon such research accomplishments, the establishment requires publication of an exhaustive and systematic textbook. This book is the first introductory textbook publication for those that study societal safety science for the first time.

When the GDP per capita is small and the country is poor, the societies look to the administration for securing clothing, food, and residence for the people, building infrastructures, and targeting economic growth. For some advanced countries, the years from the end of World War II to the mid-1960s were such times, and the priority was placed on quantitative expansion rather than enhancing quality of living.

vi Preface

Then after the period of high growth, advanced countries accomplished economically wealthy societies in the latter half of the 1960s. After the oil shock, infrastructures like roads and highways, water supply and sewage, and housing matured, and then the social demands turned their interests to quality than quantity and securing safety for the people. In the academia, Ulrich Beck published Risk Society (SAGE Publications Ltd., 1992) and discussed that modern societies forced to emphasize production and distribution risks instead of those of wealth, and James Reason, well known in the field of accident theory, published Managing the Risks of Organizational Accidents (Ashgate, 1997).

As we described above, Kansai University, for the first time in Japan, opened the Faculty of Societal Safety Sciences and the Graduate School of Societal Safety Sciences in 2010. A 2000 report “For the Establishment of Safety Sciences” by the Science Council of Japan contributed to the idea of building a new faculty. The report stated:

“Safety Engineering has made great accomplishments for realizing safety through engineering efforts. Simple engineering efforts, however, are now facing difficulties in dealing with the enormous sizes of technical products and globalization of our living environments. We now need to establish a field of Safety Sciences to counter safety problems from a wider standpoint beyond simple engineering approaches.”

This book of 5 parts and 19 chapters is the English edition of our book published in Japanese in March 2018 from Minerva Shobo. Part I “Human Societies and Societal Safety Sciences” gives overviews of what societal safety sciences aim at, development of scientific technologies and changes in human societies, how people are coping with risks in the modern societies, and how safety engineering and studies of disaster prevention and risk management developed. Part II “Events that Threaten Human and Its Societies” explains natural and social disasters and their histories, environmental risks, wars, crimes, and terrorisms. Part I “Risk Analysis and Management” discusses problems related to risk, like methods of risk analysis, risk management, risk communication, crisis management, and so on. Part IV “Social Mechanisms for Disaster Management” analyzes public systems for disaster prevention, reduction, and mitigation, government activities for disaster management, private systems for such purposes, and systems for supporting disaster victims. Part V “For Advancement of Societal Safety Sciences,” in the end, discusses the future of societal safety sciences through governance and agreement formation for societal safety.

Societal safety sciences tackle a big diversity of problems including natural disasters, accidents, environmental destruction, food safety, illnesses including pandemics, crimes and international terrorism, and information security. Translating this book into English, therefore, is only successful with not just high abilities in English as a language but also through work by someone with skills and knowledge to understand these problems in their own special fields. The translator of this book, Dr. Kenji Iino, met the task beautifully.

Preface Vii

This book is the first systematic textbook in societal safety sciences. The authors will be greatly delighted if it spreads internationally and helps the world make steps forward in building safer societies.

Finally, we would like to express our gratitude to Professor Takashi Inoguchi for his valuable suggestions in publishing this book. We are also grateful to Springer Japan and Minerva Shobo for allowing the publication of the English version Science of Societal Safety: Living at Times of Risks and Disasters of the Japanese book Shakai Anzengaku Nyumon.

Takatsuki, Osaka, Japan Seiji Abe September 1, 2018 Mamoru Ozawa Yoshiaki Kawata

Part I Human Societies and Societal Safety Sciences Seiji Abe, Mamoru Ozawa, and Hideyuki Shiroshita

Advancement in Science and Technology and Human Societies. . . .

Hiroshi Nishimura, Emiko Kanoshima, and Kazuhiro Kono

Shoji Tsuchida, Seiji Kondo, and Kenji Koshiyama

Toshihiro Kawaguchi and Tadahiro Motoyoshi

Part II Events That Threaten Human and Its Societies Mamoru Ozawa

Koji Ichii, Yoshinari Hayashi, Tomofumi Koyama, and Tomoyuki Takahashi

Takahiro Nakamura, Emiko Kanoshima, Tomofumi Koyama, Hiroshi Nishimura, and Mamoru Ozawa

Toshio Takatorige, Yukio Hirose, and Shingo Nagamatsu

Shingo Nagamatsu

Part II Risk Analysis and Management

Eiki Yamakawa and Toshihiro Kawaguchi

Yoshinari Hayashi and Katsuyuki Kamei

Seiji Kondo, Yukio Hirose, and Hideyuki Shiroshita

Katsuyuki Kamei

Part IV Social Mechanisms for Disaster Management Kazuhiko Takano, Koji Ichii, Shozo Nagata, and Eiichi Yamasaki

Tomofumi Koyama, Seiji Abe, Seiji Kondo, Yoshihiro Okumura, Hideyuki Shiroshita, and Toshio Takatorige

Mashiho Suga, Kinzo Kuwana, Shingo Nagamatsu, Takahiro Nakamura, and Kazuhiko Takano

Tadahiro Motoyoshi

Part V For Advancement of Societal Safety Sciences Yukio Hirose

Yoshiaki Kawata

Contents

Contributors

Seiji Abe Faculty of Societal Safety Sciences, Kansai University, Takatsuki, Osaka, Japan

Yoshinari Hayashi Faculty of Societal Safety Sciences, Kansai University, Takatsuki, Osaka, Japan

Yukio Hirose Faculty of Societal Safety Sciences, Kansai University, Takatsuki, Osaka, Japan

Koji Ichii Faculty of Societal Safety Sciences, Kansai University, Takatsuki, Osaka, Japan

Katsuyuki Kamei Faculty of Societal Safety Sciences, Kansai University, Takatsuki, Osaka, Japan

Emiko Kanoshima Faculty of Societal Safety Sciences, Kansai University, Takatsuki, Osaka, Japan

Toshihiro Kawaguchi Faculty of Societal Safety Sciences, Kansai University, Takatsuki, Osaka, Japan

Yoshiaki Kawata Faculty of Societal Safety Sciences, Kansai University, Takatsuki, Osaka, Japan

Seiji Kondo Faculty of Societal Safety Sciences, Kansai University, Takatsuki, Osaka, Japan

Kazuhiro Kono Faculty of Societal Safety Sciences, Kansai University, Takatsuki, Osaka, Japan

Kenji Koshiyama Faculty of Societal Safety Sciences, Kansai University, Takatsuki, Osaka, Japan

Tomofumi Koyama Faculty of Societal Safety Sciences, Kansai University, Takatsuki, Osaka, Japan xi xii Contributors

Kinzo Kuwana Faculty of Societal Safety Sciences, Kansai University, Takatsuki, Osaka, Japan

Tadahiro Motoyoshi Faculty of Societal Safety Sciences, Kansai University, Takatsuki, Osaka, Japan

Shingo Nagamatsu Faculty of Societal Safety Sciences, Kansai University, Takatsuki, Osaka, Japan

Shozo Nagata Faculty of Societal Safety Sciences, Kansai University, Takatsuki, Osaka, Japan

Takahiro Nakamura Faculty of Societal Safety Sciences, Kansai University, Takatsuki, Osaka, Japan

Hiroshi Nishimura Faculty of Societal Safety Sciences, Ķansai University, Takatsuki, Osaka, Japan

Yoshihiro Okumura Faculty of Societal Safety Sciences, Kansai University, Takatsuki, Osaka, Japan

Mamoru Ozawa Faculty of Societal Safety Sciences, Kansai University, Takatsuki, Osaka, Japan

Hideyuki Shiroshita Faculty of Societal Safety Sciences, Kansai University, Takatsuki, Osaka, Japan

Mashiho Suga Faculty of Societal Safety Sciences, Kansai University, Takatsuki, Osaka, Japan

Tomoyuki Takahashi Faculty of Societal Safety Sciences, Kansai University, Takatsuki, Osaka, Japan

Kazuhiko Takano Faculty of Societal Safety Sciences, Kansai University, Takatsuki, Osaka, Japan

Toshio Takatorige Faculty of Societal Safety Sciences, Kansai University, Takatsuki, Osaka, Japan

Shoji Tsuchida Faculty of Societal Safety Sciences, Kansai University, Takatsuki, Osaka, Japan

Eiki Yamakawa Faculty of Societal Safety Sciences, Kansai University, Takatsuki, Osaka, Japan

Eiichi Yamasaki Faculty of Societal Safety Sciences, Kansai University, Takatsuki, Osaka, Japan

Abbreviations

Al AIDS AMEDAS BCP CAA CAO CIV COP COSO CSR DDT DMAT DHS ERM FAO FDMA

FEMA GCP GDP GIAJ GIROJ GIS GLP GMP GPS GTD HERP HIV HLW

Artificial intelligence

Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome

Automated meteorological data acquisition system Business continuity plan

Consumer Affairs Agency, Government of Japan Cabinet Office of the Government of Japan

Crisis impact value

Conference of the Parties

Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission Corporate social responsibility Dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane

Disaster medical assistance team

US Department of Homeland Security

Enterprise risk management

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Fire and Disaster Management Agency of Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Government of Japan

Federal Emergency Management Agency

Good clinical practice

Gross domestic product

General Insurance Association of Japan

General Insurance Rating Organization of Japan Geographical information system

Good laboratory practice

Good manufacturing practice

Global positioning system

Global Terrorism Database

Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion Human immunodeficiency virus

High-level radioactive waste xiii

MOD MOE NCPTSD

NCTSN NILIM NIMBY NOx NPO NPP NRC NTSB OSHMS PCB PDCA

International Atomic Energy Agency International Civil Aviation Organization Intercontinental express

International Commission on Radiological Protection Incident command system

Information and communication technology International Electrotechnical Commission International Labour Office

Internet of things

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change International Organization for Standardization Intelligent transportation systems International Transportation Safety Association International Telecommunication Union Japanese Industrial Standards

Japanese Industrial Standards Committee Japan Legal Support Center

Japan Railways

Japan Transport Safety Board

Life-cycle cost

Life Insurance Association of Japan

Government of Japan

Japan of Japan Ministry of Defense, Government of Japan Ministry of the Environment, Government of Japan

Veterans Affairs National Child Traumatic Stress Network

Not in my backyard

Nitrogen oxides

Nonprofit organization

Nuclear power plant

US Nuclear Regulatory Commission

National Transportation Safety Board

Occupational safety and health management systems Polychlorinated biphenyl

Plan, do, check, act

Abbreviations

Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Government of Japan Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology,

Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Government of Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Government of

Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Government

National Center for Posttraumatic Stress Disorder, US Department of

National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management

Abbreviations

PFA

PM PRA PRTR PTSD SARS SCJ SPR

SSJ

TB

TBT TEPCO TMI UNEP UNISDR UNODC USACE VC WHO WTO

Psychological first aid

Particle matter

Probabilistic risk assessment

Pollutant release and transfer register Posttraumatic stress disorder

Severe acute respiratory syndrome

Science Council of Japan

Skills for psychological recovery Seismological Society of Japan Tuberculosis

Technical barriers to trade

Tokyo Electric Power Company

Three Mile Island

United Nations Environment Programme United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime US Army Corps of Engineers

Volunteer center

World Health Organization

World Trade Organization

XV

Chapter 1 What Do Societal Safety Sciences Aim at? iv Seiji Abe, Mamoru Ozawa, and Hideyuki Shiroshita

Abstract Societal safety sciences are new academic systems of interdisciplinary studies that combine specialized fields of social science and humanity in addition to those of science and technology for the purposes of preventing accidents and disasters that threaten human society, containing their severity and frequencies, reducing damages, rescuing the victims, and recovering and reconstructing the disaster areas. This chapter explains the position of societal safety sciences in issues related to our safety and outlines their methodologies and scopes.

Keywords Accident - Disaster - Incident - Risk - Societal safety

1.1 Is the Unexpected and the Unpredictable on the Steady Increase in the Twenty-First Century?

1.1.1 Unexpected Accidents

Every person wants to lead a safe and happy life. Advancements in science and technology have made our society convenient and comfortable. On the other hand, however, a variety of accidents and events take place to threaten our safety.

About 1.3 million people (2015) die annually in Japan. The Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW) published in its “2017 Vital Statistics of Japan” (MHLW 2017) that the first cause of death was malignant neoplasms (cancer) followed by heart disease in the second place, then by other diseases of pneumonia, and cerebrovascular disease. Among the causes of death, “unexpected accident” ranks number six or so each year.

S. Abe (È<) - M. Ozawa - H. Shiroshita Faculty of Societal Safety Sciences, Kansai University, Takatsuki, Osaka, Japan e-mail: sabe @kansai-u.ac.jp

© The Author(s) 2019 3 S. Abe et al. (eds.), Science of Societal Safety, Trust: Interdisciplinary Perspectives 2, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-98 1-13-2775-9_1

4 S. Abe et al.

Unexpected accidents are causes of death listed in the 10th revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-10. Version 2010) by the World Health Organization (WHO) including “transport accidents”; “accidental suffocation”; “slipping, tripping, stumbling, and falls”; “accidental drowning and submersion”; and so on (WHO 2010). The death toll due to unexpected accidents include victims of earthquakes or tsunami and those who died of food poisoning during their normal lives, and the total figure reached as high as 38,306 in 2015. In other words, among annual deaths in Japan, about three out of a hundred are due to unexpected accidents. As we will explain later, unexpected accidents in societal safety sciences are not just natural disasters or accidents, but they also include a wide range of events like terrorism, war, influenza pandemics, and drug toxicity. Reducing the number of deaths caused by unexpected accidents is one of the primary targets of societal safety sciences.

MHLW translated “transport accidents” by WHO to the Japanese phrase “traffic accidents” commonly used narrowly for accidents involving automobiles (traffic accidents on roads). The wide meaning of traffic accidents in Japan also includes those with railway, aircraft, and watercraft. “Vital Statistics of Japan” by MHLW uses the phrase “traffic accident” in this wide sense. In this book, we use the word traffic accidents to mean automobile accidents in the narrow sense and stick to the original phrase by WHO “transport accidents” for all transportation-related accidents including automobiles.

The historic transition of deaths due to unexpected accidents shows an annual count about 20,000, i.e., about 2% of the total deaths, in the late 1800s to the early 1930s but jumped above 30,000 before World War II. During the high-growth period of the mid-1950s to mid-1970s, the large number of traffic accidents pushed the deaths by unexpected accidents up, and in the mid-1960s to the early 1970s, the count exceeded 40,000. In the mid-1970s to the early 1990s, the number dropped to about 30,000; however, it came back up to about 40,000 in the later 1990s and has stayed at this level till today.

The current death count of about 40,000 annually seems significantly larger than the 20,000 in the late 1800s to the early 1930s; however, we must recognize that the population back then was about 40-50 million, i.e., less than half of our population now. The ratio of deaths due to unexpected accidents among the total death count, however, at about 3% now is much higher than the 2% back then. The higher rate is probably due to the large number of post-World War II transport accidents including traffic accidents that were almost none back then.

A major natural disaster temporarily boosts up the deaths caused by unexpected accidents high. In fact, the year of the Great Kanto earthquake, 1923, saw 71,322, about 2.8 times the number in the previous year; the year 1995 of the Great Hanshin- Awaji earthquake marked 45,323, a little over 9200 more than the previous year; and 2011 with the Great East Japan earthquake had a sudden increase of over 20,000, compared to other years, leaving 59,416 dead.

1 What Do Societal Safety Sciences Aim at? 5 1.1.2 Unexpected Accidents and Societal Safety

In 2010, MHLW published “Mortality Statistics from Accidents” with detailed analysis of unexpected accidents from 1995 to 2008 (MHLW 2010). It was the second publication of this type following the 1984“Mortality Statistics from Accidents and Adverse Effects.” These statistical data are effective in understanding the detail of unexpected accidents.

Reviewing the accidental deaths in 2008 by type, “suffocation” by, for example, choking on food, ranked first with 9419. Then “traffic accident (transport accident)” at 7499, “fall” at 7170, and “drowning” at 6466 followed. These four types of accidents caused over 70% of the total number of accidental deaths. Other accidental death types in 2008 were 1452 due to “smoke inhalation or exposure to fire” and 895 caused by “poisoning from or exposure to hazardous material.”

During post-War Japan, transport accidents stayed at the first type of cause of accidental deaths for an extended time. At its peak in 1970, the transport accident deaths exceeded 20,000 annually, amounting to 55% of the entire count. Today, the number of traffic accident caused deaths has dropped significantly to about 1/3 of the number back then.

In general, transport accidents occur away from home; however, about 40% of accidents of deaths of other types take place in home, and about 80% of those victims are elderlies at 65 or over. The breakdown of types of in-house accidental deaths was 85.3% fire, 63.1% drowning (mostly in bathtubs), 58.2% poisoning, 42.4% suffocation, and 35.7% falls. These numbers indicate that home, where safety and security have to be assured, is, in fact, the place where the biggest dangers hide.

By the way, some point out that the numbers of accidental deaths in MHLW’s statistics are underestimated and that they should be greater in reality. For example, the real number of accidents during medical treatment is unknown and such type of death counts is unknown. The real number of accidental deaths may well exceed 40,000; however, published data from MHLW make a certain powerful measure for evaluating the degree of societal safety.

1.2 Alleviating and Living with Disasters?

1.2.1 Purpose of Societal Safety Sciences

As we live our daily lives, we are surrounded by a number of possible hazards including earthquake, transport accidents, fires, food poisoning, environmental contamination, and health disorders.

6 S. Abe et al.

If we look around us, there are a great number of highly capable and complex industrial products. We take the high convenience these products offer for granted without knowing their detailed structures or operational principles. Machines, however, fail. Some industrial products, like an automobile, can turn into a deadly weapon if we mishandle them. Once an industrial product has some kind of failure, in the worst case, we may not only lose our lives, but it can cause damage to lives and properties of others.

The 1995 Great Hanshin-Awaji earthquake and the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake took away large numbers of lives and properties, and they destroyed the infrastructures. During the Great East Japan earthquake, tsunami waves attacked the Tokyo Electric Power Company-owned Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), and loss of the nuclear reactor core cooling function led to devastating core meltdowns. We have been repeatedly exposed to disasters caused by natural phenomena, that we have no control over, like earthquakes, tsunami, typhoons, and torrential rain. Japan is a “country of earthquakes” with about 20% of all magnitude 6 or bigger earthquakes in the world occurring in and around Japan.

Industrial products, various machinery and apparatus are called artificial products. In general, events that cause bodily injury or property damage are “accidents.” When sizes and capacities of artificial products are large, the magnitudes of suffering grow accordingly.

James Reason categorized accidents into two types: an “individual accident” that causes effects only on individuals and an “organizational accident” that affects the entire organization or the society (Reason 1997).

On the other hand, damages caused by natural phenomena like earthquakes or typhoons are generally called “natural disasters.” We call accidents that take place while at work “labor accidents.” In Japan, we sometimes call such accidents “industrial disasters,” that is, to call an accident a disaster. In Europe and the USA, they are called work accidents or occupational accidents.

The purposes of “societal safety sciences” involve preventing accidents and disasters that threaten human society from occurring, controlling their magnitudes and frequencies, reducing damages caused, saving the victims, and promoting recovery and reconstruction of disaster-struck areas. Problems that societal safety sciences face are all not simple with complex facets. For analyzing the processes and recommending policies for resolving and improving problems, as we will detail later, we need interdisciplinary approaches that combine not only the fields of engineering, but also specialized fields of law, economics, sociology, psychology, science, information technology, social and occupational medicine, and all.

1.2.2 Hazards, Incidents, Accidents, and Disasters

Physical or chemical factors or dangerous sources that cause accidents or disasters are called “hazards.” Earthquake hazards, for example, are the inter-plate forces. The hazard of poisoning accidents from incomplete combustion is carbon monoxide

1 What Do Societal Safety Sciences Aim at? 7

(CO) produced during combustion processes. Whether a hazard directly or indirectly causes damage to humans or the society depends on its size, strength, environment, and intervention with social organizations or human.

An “incident” is an event of temporary minor damage to human, society, or an organization caused by a hazard. Incidents include narrow escapes that are worth investigating their causes (Reason 2008) to events of major damages like human death or injury or loss of property values caused by not avoiding such critical crises. When, especially, damages to people or their properties are serious, we call such cases accidents. For example, a near miss between airplanes is an incident because there were no human or physical damage, whereas, if they actually collide, it is an accident. Accidents vary in their magnitudes from small ones to those that lead to hundreds of victims. Especially, NPP accidents that spatially affect wide areas for extended long times are sometimes called mega-accidents or mega-disasters.

As we will discuss in Chap. 6, suffering and damages to the human society caused by natural phenomena are called “natural disasters.” This book, in contrast, calls human-caused disasters, like aviation accidents, NPP accidents, or major explosions, “social disasters.” The phrase social disaster has a different meaning in English, and in Europe and the USA, such accidents are called “man-made disasters.”

A disaster that affects a nation, beyond what a social organization can handle, is called a “mega-disaster.” When the disaster causes huge sorrow and destruction to the society, we sometimes call such an event a “catastrophe.”

1.2.3 Reducing and Coping with Risks?

Hazards, whether they affect us or not, are always around us. They are hard to control and suppress in case of natural disasters. Preparatory actions to prevent incidents causing hazards from developing into accidents or disasters are “disaster prevention,” and suppressing the severity and spread of damages after accidents or disasters that have taken place is called “disaster mitigation.” For example, setting automatic train stops (ATS) on railways are acts of disaster prevention to prevent collision or derailing. Seatbelts and airbags in cars are types of disaster mitigation for reducing the severity of human suffering in case of collision accidents.

Human and material resources our societies possess are finite. In modern society, social agreements determine where and how to distribute the resources. These agreements take certain quantitative scales for their settlements. “Risk” is one of the concepts that affect these agreements. The International Organization for Standardization (ISO) and International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) define risk as the “effect of uncertainty on objectives” (ISO/IEC 2014). Risk is a quantitative measure that depends on projected magnitudes of damages and their probabilities of occurrence. Risk is the sum of products of the magnitude and chance of events; however, in some cases it is determined just by the size of damage or frequency.

8 S. Abe et al.

ISO further defines “safety” to mean freedom from intolerable risk. Here, freedom from intolerable risk does not necessarily mean zero risk, but it evaluates minor dangers as risk and, however in turn, allows certain level of risk (Slovic et al. 2000). The society determines the tolerable range of risk which varies depending on time and cases.

Direct comparison of different measures is difficult. Risk is a method of relative evaluation among a variety of measures. “Risk assessment” is the safety of systems or their parts by, for example, identifying relative weaknesses. There are two types of risk assessment: “deterministic risk assessment” and “probabilistic risk assessment” (Lee and McCormick 2011).

Deterministic risk assessment qualitatively evaluates risks of accidents and disasters with conformance or other qualities to safety standards. Probabilistic risk assessment, on the other hand, evaluates risks associated with a system or its specific part with all scenarios that lead to accidents or disasters from hazards by calculation based on reliabilities of parts, elements, and operator interventions related to each scenario. Probabilistic risk assessment is often used for evaluating risks with complex systems like NPPs or airplanes.

Scenarios in probabilistic risk assessment are generally called an “event tree.” The safety and reliability of an entire system largely depend on probabilistic reliability of each elements of the system as well as the construct of the event tree. Probabilistic risk assessment, thus, requires evaluating errors, that is, the uncertainty evaluation of the risk assessment itself. In that sense, probabilistic risk assessment works well in identifying weaknesses of a system instead of as a tool in evaluating the safety of an entire system.

1.3 Building Safe and Secure Society Together

1.3.1 Events That Threaten Human and Examining Them

We do not call a tsunami attack on a deserted island a disaster. The same applies to a major avalanche in an uninhabited forest area. When the event affects people or the society, it is an accident and a disaster.

Figure 1.1 shows issues that societal safety sciences handle among problems that pose threats to people or their societies. They cover a large variety from accidents and natural disasters to terrorism and wars. In facing these issues, we have to not only analyze the characteristics, features, and structures of them but also have to propose policies to resolve and improve them.

We cannot select or control sizes or regions of natural disasters, like torrential rain; thus, we need to quickly evacuate disaster-struck areas to avoid dangers. Nevertheless, no matter how urgent the situation may be, whether the people actually

1 What Do Societal Safety Sciences Aim at? 9 fire transportation accident

explosions plant accidents

nuclear accidents industrial accidents collapsing infrastructure accidents with machines & consumer products medical ea p henomena data fabrication scam consumer crimes violent rimes information leakage accident prevention & mitigation disaster prevention & mitigation People, society cybercrime cyberattack environment elderly storm surge torrential rain flooding h ki h earthqual tsunami (gal) sediment disaster disasters volcano eruption control & prevention k energy & water conflicts p territorial disputes security assurancg regional conflicts terrorism religious war economic policies air, soil & water pollution ozone layer destructiop waste environmenta climate change Néestructio hazardous chemical substance financial crises restructuring

food poisoning non-regular employees growing food fraud BSE global chain reaction of economic crises genetically modified food widening gap between rich & poor economic crisis crime. social preventio: confusio : network malfunction measure:

deteriorating social security system higher welfare dependency infection AIDS phytotoxicity dementia health problems caused by hazardous elderly caused accident chemical substances

Fig. 1.1 Topics in societal safety science evacuate the area or not depends on past individual experiences and their psychological states. Quite a number of people, in fact, ignore evacuation orders by local administration offices. Such reality suggests that authorities have to consider psychological factors in deciding whether to enforce evacuation. On the other hand, matters for saving disaster victims and supporting reconstruction of disaster-struck areas relate to socioeconomic evaluation, legal systems, and financial constraints; thus, they require approaches from economics and public administration.

Preparing against a large-scale tsunami disaster, like the one that hit during the Great East Japan earthquake, takes an enormous amount of budget for hardware preparation. If we want to reduce the hardware preparation cost, we have to build software measures, like educating the residents about disaster prevention and clarifying the evacuation routes, and, at the same time, prepare improved systems for resident notification and develop procedures for helping those that require assistance. Such preparations require not just engineering knowledge but also specialized knowledge over a wide range of specialties. The same applies to accidents as well. Airplanes are means of transportation through the air, and damage to their engines or fuselages caused by aging, poor maintenance or bird strikes, as well as stalls due to pilot error or turbulence can immediately lead to their falls. Preparing against them means to have knowledge in not only aviation engineering, mechanical engineering, and human engineering but additionally in biology for countering bird strikes and public administration for safety regulations. Dealing with problems that surround societal safety, thus, requires not only revealing the physical and chemical mechanisms of accidents and disasters but also studying human, social, and economic environments that the problems relate to.

10 S. Abe et al. 1.3.2 Societal Safety Sciences as a Field of Synthetic Science

Conventionally, academic fields that study natural disasters include civil engineering and architecture, and those that study accidents and industrial safety are engineering fields of mechanical, chemical, safety, and so on. All these specialized fields handle disaster and safety issues with engineering methodologies. In modern days, complex and diversified problems in safety revealed limitations with such engineering approaches alone. Yoichiro Murakami advocated “safety studies” (Murakami 1998) to cover a wide range of safety issues including drug toxicity, medical accidents, and food safety in addition to those industrial safety concerns like nuclear accidents. In fact, the Science Council of Japan (SCJ), in February of 2000, published the following recommendation (SCJ 2000). “Safety engineering has made large contributions in realizing safety from engineering standpoints. With such changes, however, of our technology growing much larger and our living environment globalizing, simple engineering analytic approaches alone are facing difficulty in handling safety problems. We now need to construct “safety studies,” an academic field that deals with safety problems from a wide viewpoint beyond the conventional scope of safety engineering.”