Parallel chapters from the first and second editions of An essay on the principle of population

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Preface

The following Essay owes its origin to a conversation with a friend, on the subject of Mr. Godwin's Essay, on avarice and profusion, in his Enquirer. The discussion, started the general question of the future improvement of society ; and the Author at first sat down with an intention of merely stating his thoughts to his friend, upon paper, in a clearer manner than he thought he could do, in conversation. But as the subject opened upon him, some ideas occurred, which he did not recollect to have met with before; and as he conceived, that every, the least light, on a topic so generally interesting, might be received with candour, he determined to put his thoughts in a form for publication.

The Essay might, undoubtedly, have been rendered more complete by a collection of a greater number of facts in the elucidation of the general argument. But a long and almost total interruption, from very particular business, joined to a desire (perhaps imprudent) of not delaying the publication much beyond the time that he originally proposed, prevented the Author from giving to the subject an undivided attention. He presumes, however, that the facts which he has adduced, will be found, to form no inconsiderable evidence for the truth of his opinion concerning the future improvement of

xi x ii PREFACE.

mankind. As the Author contemplates this opinion at present, little more appears to him to be necessary than a plain statement, in addition to the most cursory view of society, to establish it.

It is an obvious truth, which has been taken notice of by many writers, that population must always be kept down to the level of the means of subsistence ; but no writer, that the Author recollects, has inquired particularly into the means by which this level is effected : and it is a view of these means, which forms, to his mind, the strongest obstacle in the way to any very great future improvement of society. He hopes it will appear, that, in the discussion of this interesting subject, he is actuated solely by a love of truth ; and not by any prejudice against any particular set of men, or of opinions. He professes to have read some of the speculations on the future improvement of society, in a temper very different from a wish to find them visionary ; but he has not acquired that command over his understanding, which would enable him to believe what he wishes, without evidence, or to refuse his assent to what might be unpleasing, when accompanied with evidence.

The view which he has given of human life has a melancholy hue \ but he feels conscious, that he has drawn these dark tints, from a conviction that they are really in the picture ; and not from a jaundiced eye, or an inherent spleen of disposition. The theory of mind which he has sketched in the two last chapters, accounts to his own understanding, in a satisfactory manner, for the existence of most of the evils of life ; but whether it will have the same effect upon others, must be left to the judgment of his readers.

PREFACE. xiii

If he should succeed in drawing the attention of more able men, to what he conceives to be the principal difficulty in the way to the improvement of society, and should, in consequence, see this difficulty removed, even in theory, he will gladly retract his present opinions, and rejoice in a conviction of his error.

CONTENTS. 1

Chap. I

Question stated. — Little prospect of a determination of i(, from the enmity of the opposing parties. — The principal argument against the perfectibility of man and of society has never been fairly answered. — Nature of the difficulty arising from population. — Outline of the principal argument of the essay. page i

Chap. II

The different ratios in which popidation and food increase. — The necessary effects of these different ratios of increase. — Oscillation produced by them in the condition of the loiver classes of society. — Reasons why this oscillation has not been so much observed as might be expected. — Three propositions on which the general argument of the essay depends. — The different states in which mankind have been known to exist proposed to be examined with reference to these three propositions. p. g

Chap. III

The savage or hunter state shortly reviewed. — The shepherd state, or the tribes of barbarians that overran the Roman Empire. — The superiority of the power of poptdation to the means of subsistence, the cause of the great tide of Northern Emigration.

1 The original tables of contents are given in order to display the character of the portions of the two Essays not reprinted.

Chap. IV

State of civilized nations. — Probability that Europe is much more poptdous now than in the time of Julius Ccesar. — Best criterion of population. — Probable error of Hume in one of the criterions that he proposes as assisting in an estimate of population. — Slow increase of population at present in most of the states of Europe. — The two principal checks to population. — The first, or preventive check, examined with regard to England. p. 19

Chap. V

The second, or positive check to poptdation examined, in England. — The true cause why the immense sunt collected in England for the poor does not better their condition. — The powerful tendency of the poor laws to defeat their own purpose. — Palliative of the distresses of the poor proposed. — The absolute impossibility from the fixed laws of our nature, that the pressure of want can ever be completely removed from the lower classes of society. — All the checks to population may be resolved into misery or vice. p. 24

Chap. VI

New colonies. — Reasons of their rapid increase. — North American Colonies. — Extraordinary instance of increase in the back settlements. — Rapidity with which even old states recover the ravages of war, pestilence, famine, or the convulsions of nature.

Chap. VII

A probable cause of epidemics. — Extracts from Mr. SusmilcWs tables.

— Periodical returns of sickly seasons to be expected in certain cases. — Proportion of births to burials for short periods in any country an inadequate criterion of the real average increase of population. — Best criterion of a permanent increase of poptdation.

— Great frugality of living one of the causes of the famines of China and Indostan. — Evil tendency op' one of the clauses in Mr.

CONTENTS. xvii

PitCs Poor Bill. — Only one proper way of encouraging population. — Causes of the happiness of nations. — Famine the last and most dreadful mode by which nature represses a redundant population. — The three propositions considered as established. p. 39

Chap. VIII

Mr. Wallace. — Error of supposing that the difficulty arising from population is at a great distance. — Mr. Condorcet 's sketch of the progress of the human mind. — Period when the oscillation, mentioned by Mr. Condorcet, ought to be applied to the human race.

Chap. IX

Mr. Condor eel's conjecture concerning the organic perfectibility of man, and the indefinite prolongation of human life. — Fallacy of the argument, -which infers an unlimited progress from a partial improvement, the limit of which cannot be ascertained, illustrated in the breeding of animals, and the cultivation of plants.

Chap. X

Mr. Godzuin's system of equality. — Error of attributing all the vices of mankind to human institutions. — Mr. Godwins first answer to the difficulty arising from population totally insufficient. — Mr. Godwins beautiful system of society supposed to be realized. — Its utter destruction simply from the principle of population in so short a time as thirty years. p. 46

Chap. XI

Mr. Godzuin's conjecture concerning the future extinction of the passion between the sexes. — Little apparent grounds for such a conjecture. — Passion of love not inconsistent either with reason or virtue.

Chap. XII

Mr. Godzvirts conjecture concerning the indefinite prolongation of human life. — Improper inference drawn from the effects of mental stimulants on the human frame, illustrated in various instances.

xviii CONTENTS.

— Conjectures not founded on any indications in the past, not to be considered as philosophical conjectttres. — Air. Godwin 's and Mr. Condor cet' 's conjecture respecting the approach of man towards immortality on earth, a curious instance of the inconsistency of scepticism.

Chap. XIII

Error of Mr. Godwin in considering man too much in the light of a being ?7ierely rational. — In the compound being, man, the passions ivill always act as disturbing forces in the decisions of the understanding. — Reasonings of Mr. Godwin on the subject of coercion.

— Some truths of a nature not to be communicated from one man to another.

Chap. XIV

Mr. Godwin's five propositions respecting political truth, on which his zvhole work hinges, not established. — Reasons we have for supposing, from the distress occasioned by the principle of population, that the vices, and moral weaknesses of man can never be wholly eradicated. — Perfectibility, in the sense in which Mr. Godwin uses the term, not applicable to man. — Nature of the real perfectibility of man illustrated.

Chap. XV

Models too perfect, may sometimes rather ii7ipede than promote improvement. — Air. Godwin's essay on avarice and profusion. — Impossibility of dividing the necessary labour of a society amicably among all. — Invectives against labour may produce present evil, with little or no chance of producing future good. — An accession to the mass of agricultural labour must ahoays be an advantage to the labourer.

Chap. XVI

Probable error of Dr. Adam Smith in representing every increase of the revenue or stock of a society as an increase i?i the funds for the maintenance of labour. — Instances where an increase of wealth can have no tendency to better the condition of the labouring poor.

— England has increased in riches without a proportional increase

CONTENTS. xix

in the fzmds for the maintenance of labour. — The state of the poor in China zaould not be improved by an increase of wealth from manufactures.

Chap. XVII

Question of the proper definition of the wealth of a state. — Reason given by the French Economists for considering all manufacturers as unproductive labourers, not the true reason. — The labour of artificers and manufacturers sufficiently productive to individuals, though not to the state. — A remarkable passage in Dr. Price's two volumes of observations. — Error of Dr. Price in attributing the happiness and rapid population of America, chiefly, to its peculiar state of civilization. — No advantage can be expected from shutting our eyes to the difficulties in the way to the improvement of society.

Chap. XVIII

The constant pressure of distress on man, from the principle of population, seems to direct our hopes to the future. — State of trial inconsistent with our ideas of the foreknowledge of God. — The world, probably, a mighty process for awakening matter into miitd. — Theory of the formation of mind. — Excitements from the wants of the body. — Excitements from the operation of general laws. — Excitements from the difficulties of life arising from the principle of population.

Chap. XIX

The sorrozvs of life necessary to soften and humanize the heart. — The exciteijtents of social sympathy often produce characters of a higher order than the mere possessors of talents. — Moral evil probably necessary to the production of moral excellence. — Excitements from intellectual wants continually kept up by the infinite variety of nature, and the obscurity that involves metaphysical subjects. — The difficulties in Revelation to be accounted for upon this principle. — The degree of evidence which the scriptures contain, probably, best suited to the improvement of the human faculties, and the moral amelioration of mankind. — The idea that mind is created by excitements, seems to account for the existence of natural and moral evil.

AN ESSAY ON THE PRINCIPLE OF POPULATION.

Chapter I

Question stated. — Little prospect of a determination of it, from the enmity of the opposing parties. — The principal argument against the perfectibility of man and of society has never been fairly answered. — A r alure of the difficulty arising from population. — Outline of the principal argument of the essay.

The great and unlooked for discoveries that have taken place of late years in natural philosophy ; the increasing diffusion of general knowledge from the extension of the art of printing ; the ardent and unshackled spirit of inquiry that prevails throughout the lettered, and even unlettered world ; the new and extraordinary lights that have been thrown on political subjects, which dazzle and astonish the understanding ; and particularly that tremendous phenomenon in the political horizon the French Revolution, which, like a blazing comet, seems destined either to inspire with fresh life and vigour, or to scorch up and destroy the thinking inhabitants of the earth, have all concurred to lead able men into the opinion, that we were touching upon a period big with the most important changes, changes that would in some measure be decisive of the future fate of mankind.

It has been said, that the great question is now at issue, whether man shall henceforth start forwards with accelerated velocity towards illimitable, and hitherto unconceived imb 1 provement ; or be condemned to a perpetual oscillation between happiness and misery, and after every effort remain still at an immeasurable distance from the wished -for goal.

Yet, anxiously as every friend of mankind must look forwards to the termination of this painful suspense ; and, eagerly as the inquiring mind would hail every ray of light that might assist its view into futurity, it is much to be lamented, that the writers on each side of this momentous question still keep far aloof from each other. Their mutual arguments do not meet with a candid examination. The question is not brought to rest on fewer points ; and even in theory scarcely seems to be approaching to a decision.

The advocate for the present order of things, is apt to treat the sect of speculative philosophers, either as a set of artful and designing knaves, who preach up ardent benevolence, and draw captivating pictures of a happier state of society, only the better to enable them to destroy the present establishments, and to forward their own deep-laid schemes of ambition : or, as wild and mad-headed enthusiasts, whose silly speculations, and absurd paradoxes, are not worthy the attention of any reasonable man.

The advocate for the perfectibility of man, and of society, retorts on the defender of establishments a more than equal contempt. He brands him as the slave of the most miserable, and narrow prejudices ; or, as the defender of the abuses of civil society, only because he profits by them. He paints him either as a character who prostitutes his understanding to his interest ; or as one whose powers of mind are not of a size to grasp anything great and noble ; who cannot see above five yards before him ; and who must therefore be utterly unable to take in the views of the enlightened benefactor of mankind.

In this unamicable contest, the cause of truth cannot but suffer. The really good arguments on each side of the question are not allowed to have their proper weight. Each pursues his own theory, little solicitous to correct, or improve it, by an attention to what is advanced by his opponents.

The friend of the present order of things condemns all political speculations in the gross. He will not even condescend to examine the grounds from which the perfectibility of society is inferred. Much less will he give himself the trouble in a fair and candid manner to attempt an exposition of their fallacy.

The speculative philosopher equally offends against the cause of truth. With eyes fixed on a happier state of society, the blessings of which he paints in the most captivating colours, he allows himself to indulge in the most bitter invectives against every present establishment, without applying his talents to consider the best and safest means of removing abuses, and without seeming to be aware of the tremendous obstacles that threaten, even in theory, to oppose the progress of man towards perfection.

It is an acknowledged truth in philosophy, that a just theory will always be confirmed by experiment. Yet so much friction, and so many minute circumstances occur in practice, which it is next to impossible for the most enlarged and penetrating mind to foresee, that on few subjects can any theory be pronounced just, that has not stood the test of experience. But an untried theory cannot be advanced as probable, much less as just, till all the arguments against it have been maturely weighed, and clearly and consistently confuted.

I have read some of the speculations on the perfectibility of man and of society with great pleasure. I have been warmed and delighted with the enchanting picture which they hold forth. 1 ardently wish for such happy improvements. But I see great, and, to my understanding, unconquerable difficulties in the way to them. These difficulties it is my present purpose to state ; declaring, at the same time, that so far from exulting in them, as a cause of triumphing over the friends of innovation, nothing would give me greater pleasure than to see them completely removed.

The most important argument that I shall adduce is certainly not new. The principles on which it depends have been explained in part by Hume, and more at large by Dr. Adam Smith. It has been advanced and applied to the present subject, though not with its proper weight, or in the most forcible point of view, by Mr. Wallace : and it may probably have been stated by many writers that I have never met with. I should certainly, therefore, not think of advancing it again, though I mean to place it in a point of view in some degree different from any that I have hitherto seen, if it had ever been fairly and satisfactorily answered.

The cause of this neglect on the part of the advocates for the perfectibility of mankind is not easily accounted for. I cannot doubt the talents of such men as Godwin and Condorcet. I am unwilling to doubt their candour. To my understanding, and probably to that of most others, the difficulty appears insurmountable. Yet these men of acknowledged ability and penetration, scarcely deign to notice it, and hold on their course in such speculations, with unabated ardour and undiminished confidence. I have certainly no right to say that they purposely shut their eyes to such arguments. I ought rather to doubt the validity of them, when neglected by such men, however forcibly their truth may strike my own mind. Yet in this respect it must be acknowledged that we are all of us too prone to err. If I saw a glass of wine repeatedly presented to a man, and he took no notice of it, I should be apt to think that he was blind or uncivil. A juster philosophy might teach me rather to think that my eyes deceived me, and that the offer was not really what I conceived it to be.

In entering upon the argument I must premise that I put out of the question, at present, all mere conjectures ; that is, all suppositions, the probable realization of which cannot be inferred upon any just philosophical grounds. A writer may tell me that he thinks man will ultimately become an ostrich. I cannot properly contradict him. But before he can expect to bring any reasonable person over to his opinion, he ought to show that the necks of mankind have been gradually elongating ; that the lips have grown harder, and more prominent ; that the legs and feet are daily altering their shape ; and that the hair is beginning to change into stubs of feathers. And till the probability of so wonderful a conversion can be shown, it is surely lost time and lost eloquence to expatiate on the happiness of man in such a state ; to describe his powers, both of running and flying ; to paint him in a condition where all narrow luxuries would be contemned ; where he would be employed only in collecting the necessaries of life; and where, consequently, each man's share of labour would be light, and his portion of leisure ample.

I think I may fairly make two postulata.

First, That food is necessary to the existence of man.

Secondly, That the passion between the sexes is necessary, and will remain nearly in its present state.

These two laws ever since we have had any knowledge of mankind, appear to have been fixed laws of our nature ; and, as we have not hitherto seen any alteration in them, we have no right to conclude that they will ever cease to be what they are now, without an immediate act of power in that Being who first arranged the system of the universe ; and for the advantage of his creatures, still executes, according to fixed laws, all its various operations.

I do not know that any writer has supposed that on this earth man will ultimately be able to live without food. But Mr. Godwin has conjectured that the passion between the sexes may in time be extinguished. As, however, he calls this part of his work, a deviation into the land of conjecture, I will not dwell longer upon it at present, than to say, that the best arguments for the perfectibility of man are drawn from a contemplation of the great progress that he has already made from the savage state, and the difficulty of saying where he is to stop. But towards the extinction of the passion between the sexes, no progress whatever has hitherto been made. It appears to exist in as much force at present as it did two thousand, or four thousand years ago. There are individual exceptions now as there always have been. But, as these exceptions do not appear to increase in number, it would surely be a very unphilosophical mode of arguing, to infer merely from the existence of an exception, that the exception would, in time, become the rule, and the rule the exception.

Assuming, then, my postulata as granted, I say, that the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man.

Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence only increases in an arithmetical ratio. A slight acquaintance with numbers will show the immensity of the first power in comparison of the second.

By that law of our nature which makes food necessary to the life of man, the effects of these two unequal powers must be kept equal.

This implies a strong and constantly operating check on population from the difficulty of subsistence. This difficulty must fall some where ; and must necessarily be severely felt by a large portion of mankind.

Through the animal and vegetable kingdoms, nature has scattered the seeds of life abroad with the most profuse and liberal hand. She has been comparatively sparing in the room, and the nourishment necessary to rear them. The germs of existence contained in this spot of earth, with ample food, and ample room to expand it, would fill millions of worlds in the course of a few thousand years. Necessity, that imperious, all-pervading law of nature, restrains them within the prescribed bounds. The race of plants, and the race of animals shrink under this great restrictive law. And the race of man cannot, by any efforts of reason, escape from it. Among plants and animals its effects are waste of seed, sickness, and premature death. Among mankind, misery and vice. The former, misery, is an absolutely necessary consequence of it. Vice is a highly probable consequence, and we therefore see it abundantly prevail ; but it ought not, perhaps, to be called an absolutely necessary consequence. The ordeal of virtue is to resist all temptation to evil.

This natural inequality of the two powers of population, and of production in the earth, and that great law of our nature which must constantly keep their effects equal, form the great difficulty that to me appears insurmountable in the way to perfectibility of society. All other arguments are of slight and subordinate consideration in comparison of this. I see no way by which man can escape from the weight of this law which pervades all animated nature. No fancied equality, no agrarian regulations in their utmost extent, could remove the pressure of it even for a single century. And it appears, therefore, to be decisive against the possible existence of a society, all the members of which should live in ease, happiness, and comparative leisure ; and feel no anxiety about providing the means of subsistence for themselves and families.

Consequently, if the premises are just, the argument is conclusive against the perfectibility of the mass of mankind.

I have thus sketched the general outline of the argument ; but I will examine it more particularly ; and I think it will be found that experience, the true source and foundation of all knowledge, invariably confirms its truth.

Chapter II

The different ratios in which population and food ittcrease. — The necessary effects of these different ratios of ittcrease. — Oscillation produced by them in the condition of the lower classes of society. — Reasons why this oscillation has not been so much observed as might be expected. — Three propositions on which the general argument of the essay depends. — The different states in which mankind have been known to exist proposed to be exa??iined with reference to these three propositions.

I said that population, when unchecked, increased in a geometrical ratio ; and subsistence for man in an arithmetical ratio.

Let us examine whether this proposition be just.

I think it will be allowed, that no state has hitherto existed (at least that we have any account of) where the manners were so pure and simple, and the means of subsistence so abundant, that no check whatever has existed to early marriages ; among the lower classes, from a fear of not providing well for their families ; or among the higher classes, from a fear of lowering their condition in life. Consequently in no state that we have yet known, has the power of population been left to exert itself with perfect freedom.

Whether the law of marriage be instituted or not, the dictate of nature and virtue, seems to be an early attachment to one woman. Supposing the liberty of changing in the case of an unfortunate choice, this liberty would not affect population till it arose to a height greatly vicious ; and we are now supposing the existence of a society where vice is scarcely known.

In a state therefore of great equality and virtue, where pure and simple manners prevailed, and where the means of subsistence were so abundant, that no part of the society could have any fears about providing amply for a family, the power of population being left to exert itself unchecked, the increase of the human species would evidently be much greater than any increase that has been hitherto known.

In the United States of America, where the means of subsistence have been more ample, the manners of the people more pure, and consequently the checks to early marriages fewer, than in any of the modern states of Europe, the population has been found to double itself in twenty-five years.

This ratio of increase, though short of the utmost power of population, yet as the result of actual experience, we will take as our rule ; and say,

That population, when unchecked, goes on doubling itself every twenty-five years, or increases in a geometrical ratio.

Let us now take any spot of earth, this Island for instance, and see in what ratio the subsistence it affords can be supposed to increase. We will begin with it under its present state of cultivation.

If I allow that by the best possible policy, by breaking up more land, and by great encouragements to agriculture, the produce of this Island may be doubled in the first twenty-five years, I think it will be allowing as much as any person can well demand.

In the next twenty-five years, it is impossible to suppose that the produce could be quadrupled. It would be contrary to all our knowledge of the qualities of land. The very utmost that we can conceive, is, that the increase in the second twenty-five years might equal the present produce. Let us then take this for our rule, though certainly far beyond the truth ; and allow that by great exertion, the whole produce of the Island might be increased every twenty-five years, by a quantity of subsistence equal to what it at present produces. The most enthusiastic speculator cannot suppose a greater increase than this. In a few centuries it would make every acre of land in the Island like a garden.

Yet this ratio of increase is evidently arithmetical.

It may be fairly said, therefore, that the means of subsistence increase in an arithmetical ratio.

Let us now bring the effects of these two ratios together.

The population of the Island is computed to be about seven millions ; and we will suppose the present produce equal to the support of such a number. In the first twenty-five years the population would be fourteen millions ; and the food being also doubled, the means of subsistence would be equal to this increase. In the next twenty-five years the population would be twenty-eight millions ; and the means of subsistence only equal to the support of twenty-one millions. In the next period, the population would be fifty- six millions, and the means of subsistence just sufficient for half that number. And at the conclusion of the first century, the population would be one hundred and twelve millions, and the means of subsistence only equal to the support of thirty-five millions ; which would leave a population of seventy-seven millions totally unprovided for.