The true law of population shewn to be connected with the food of the people

Front matter

ALBERT R. MANN LIBRARY

New York State Colleges

of

Preface

In venturing to bring a third and enlarged edition of the following work before the public, its author has little of prefatory matter to adduce. Having, from the first, aimed to build an hypothesis upon the sure foundation of a multitude of facts, all pointing one way and all corroborating each other, his sole attempt in the present volume has been to add to the number of these facts. Without such a foundation is this, theory, however plausible, is of little value. In his quest of materials, therefore, the author has not been sparing of research; and with the more prominent proofs of the universality of the principles laid down, he has not hesitated to note the minutest truths that seem to bear upon the question. Of the theory itself, as originally put before the world, he has nothing to retract nor to alter ; nor has he anything to add to it. To the principles of increase

IV PKEFACB.

and of decrease amongst mankind, as well as throughout the animal and vegetable world, as originally stated in the first edition of this Essay, he entirely adheres. The additions made are those of corroborative facts only, to the store of which time is constantly adding.

In the Postscript of the present edition, the reader will find brief replies to the objections brought against this theory, since the period of its first publication. These objections are embodied in the Report upon the first edition of this work, laid before the French Institute by M. Villerme, and in an article in a recently published number of the new series of the "Westminster Review," since republished separately. How far such objections have succeeded in invalidating any portion of this work the reader must judge ; and in his reader's hands the author confidently leaves the final decision.

Newcastle-upon-Tyne, August 1st, 1853.

Preface To The First Edition

Of the following work, the author may justly affirm, that perhaps no treatise, embodying a theory of a novel and, at first sight, somewhat singular nature, was ever begun with fewer prejudices or preconceived notions relative to it, on the part of the writer. It was indeed purely by accident that the author was brought upon the train of thought, which being pursued in all its ramifications, resulted in the present work. He by no means intends, of course, to assert that he had not at one time or other examined the various theories that have been put forth on the puzzling subject of Population, nor to deny that

VI PREFACE TO he may have been bewildered by some and staggered by others. Still, for many years, this subject and the various views of it by various writers, had been put aside as it were by him, as matters with regard to which he was neither prepared to record an assent or dissent : nor was his scepticism lessened by the following admonition : — Happening, in the presence of a relative, long since deceased, remarkable both for the sagacity and extended benevolence of his general views on philosophical subjects, to draw some of those startling, though not illogical, conclusions which seemed to flow from theories then recently broached as to this subject, and much in vogue at the time, the reply was this: — "Depend upon it, my dear nephew, that you and *I may safely decline to yield an implicit assent, though we may not on the instant be able to refute them, to views, from which consequences such as you have drawn, legitimately flow. Though I may not live to see it, nor you, a time will yet come when this mys-

THE FIRST EDITION. VU

tery will be unveiled ; and when, a perhaps now mysterious, but, beyond doubt, a beneficent law will be discovered, regulating this matter, in accordance with all the rest that we see of God's moral government of the world." This judgment, delivered with a solemnity and earnestness rather unusual with the speaker, made a deep impression, and from that time forward, and for many years after, the author regarded the question of population as one of those insoluble problems which are put in his way to humble the intellectual pride of man, but at the same time to stimulate his inquiry into the laws of his own nature and of the creation around him, with a humble reliance that, as heretofore, everything which shall be unfolded will only show forth, more and more, the wisdom and benevolence of the great Architect of all things.

Chance, the author of these sheets has already said, led him to stumble upon the chain of reasoning which, with its results, he now venviii PREFACE TO

tures to lay before the Public. It may on that account probably be more easy to be believed by his readers, that, entering upon his researches without any preconceived opinions or views as to the shape which they were to take, or the goal at which they were to arrive, he followed the clew of evidence with the sole wish of arriving, if possible, at the truth, unembarrassed by any accompanying considerations as to the bearings of that truth when discovered ; being well convinced, where they are the bearings of truth, they must be good. In the course of this inquiry, however, be it . begun under what circumstances it might, it has certainly been impossible for an inquirer not to perceive, from time to time, that the positions necessarily arrived at sometimes as necessarily involved considerations connected with the general policy of nations, and the acts of governments. This could not be avoided, because this is involved in the nature of the subject itself. When, however, the author has deemed it proper to draw collateral

THE FIRST EDITION. IX

conclusions, as requisite to the full and complete elucidation of his subject, he has adhered to the rule of only deducing such general conclusions as were plainly requisite for that purpose. Even of such conclusions he has drawn as few as possible ; partly from the conviction that to load a general argument with minute collateral inference is ill judegd in the reasoner who does so ; and partly from a wish to keep his essay clear of those party conclusions, or political feelings, which, often as they have assisted to mar philosophical discussion, have never yet advanced it one single step.

Although, however, he disclaims any regard foreign to that for the truth, which ought to actuate all writers, as mingling itself with his piirsuit of the truth as to this question, the author yet is not disposed to deny that he felt both strengthened and encouraged in this course by the discovery that, as he proceeded step by step, the facts, as they unfolded themselves,

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accorded with his general convictions of the benevolence of the Deity, and the wonderful providence by which, under the agency of an unseen law, unrecognised and unthought of, the happiness of mankind is often regulated and achieved upon a scale of moral government, of which the human eye can only see portions, and which the human intellect can only comprehend in part. It has, indeed, ever been his creed that the philosophy, which is in admitted accordance with that benevolence which is the first attribute of that great Being, whose ways, however, are of necessity often inscrutable by His creatures, has at all events the weight of a priori recommendation in its favour; for, although that which may, to imperfect observers, seem to militate against God's providence may be true, that which accords with it must, as far as such accordance is concerned; and it must ever be the case with paradoxes which seem exceptions to the laws of Providence, that they involve in themselves a contradiction

THE FIRST EDITION. XI

which, on the first showing, destroys their own existence; because, upon the postulate of the goodness of God, all reasoning, moral or physical, is ultimately and proximately founded, nor can such exist in connection with its denial.

The concluding chapter of this volume will be found to treat of a class of subjects as to which the writer is avowedly unlearned. The considerations there detailed were rather forced upon than sought by him ; and being so, he did not deem there was either impropriety or arrogance in describing views which may very possibly turn out to be erroneous and fanciful, provided they were uncontradicted by the writings of those versed in such knowledge, and qualified to speak with authority on questions of physiology. As far as the author can ascertain, he has not, in entertaining the peculiar notions there detailed, run counter to any fact laid down and admitted by physiologists or nosologists ; and, therefore, neither xii PREFACE TO

coming, nor desirous to come, in collision with any one, he may be readily pardoned for having, perhaps rashly, taken up views which, if they are unfounded, are at all events innocuous, inasmuch as, if not scientific in themselves, they do not seem to interfere with the science of others. If they do not help the author's argument, he trusts they may not hurt it, being in themselves perfectly extrinsic ; and if true, only calculated to account for facts which have been already demonstrated.

Having commenced this work in a spirit of calm and candid inquiry, the author has judged it proper, if not necessary, to keep his style somewhat in accordance with his subject-matter, and to write plainly, upon a dry, though important question. He is an inquirer, and not a partisan ; and therefore, happily, as he deems it, excused from attempting either to recommend his theme by eloquence or the artifices of rhetoric, or to adorn it by the extraneous

THE FIRST EDITION. xiii

ornaments of figurative or florid composition. He trusts the judicious reader will not permit this to operate to his disadvantage, but the contrary ; and whilst treating a subject like this now under discussion, he cannot but think that he who would judge of his book from the ornaments of style it might or may not contain, is adopting a criterion little less strange, on such an occasion, than that of Heliogabalus, who is said to have formed his opinion of the City of Rome from the great quantity of cobwebs that were found in it.

In fine, this book is not addressed to any persons professing any particular set of opinions, philosophical, religious, or political ; but to the thinking, the candid, and the good of all sects, persuasions, and parties, whosoever and wheresoever they may be. In their hands the writer respectfully leaves it, assured that,, whatever the judgment of the Public may be as to its matter and argument, his motives will be respected and xiv PREFACE TO THE FIRST EDITION.

his attempt unblamed, even by those by whom its failure, if a failure it be, may not be lamented.

It may be proper, in conclusion, to add, that the present volume has in part owed its existence to the attention which an outline of the theory now attempted to be established, given in Blackwood's Magazine for March 1837, under the title of "A Letter to the Right Honourable Lord Brougham," excited at the time of its publication. The author can only hope that the call which was at that time made for his more mature opinions upon the subject, in an enlarged form, may not remain unechoed now that the call is responded to by him ; and that the attention which was awarded to the sketch' of 1837, may not be refused to the volume of 1841.

Newcastle-upon-Tyne, March Oth, 1841.

Some additional collateral Considerations, and

Addenda 322

POSTSCRIPT To the Second Edition i

POSTSCRIPT To the Third Edition . xx j

THE

TRUE LAW OF POPULATION.

Chapter I. A Few Introductory Statements And Reflections

The Law of Population is undoubtedly one of the most important questions that can be submitted to human reason. On a cursory or superficial view, it may seem to be the contrary of this. Whilst so much of the earth remains uncultivated and untouched by the hand of man, and whilst that which is so touched is so imperfectly dealt with, it may appear rather a curious than a natural anxiety to sum up the actual or probable numbers of mankind, and still more so

B to anticipate evils from a superflux of population. Jo the near and patient inquirer, however, appearances are different.

If it be true that the inhabitants of any country or of all countries tend perpetually by their increase to outstrip their means of subsistence, the evil consequences of such a state of things must, at all times and continually, be felt with more or less of severity ; it is of no avail to say that the earth can or will, if properly cultivated, afford ample subsistence for all that have ever yet lived upon its surface. It has not been so cultivated; the increase of food, so far from having been pushed up to those limits which some writers have, and perhaps not improperly, assigned as the highest possible, has in most countries been little better than stationary. The question is, therefore, Has the tendency of living beings rapidly to increase been existing through all this foregone period, unchecked by anything but the mere want of corresponding subsistence for those who should be bornl If it has, then, as it appears to the author, a constant state of suffering, more or less mitigated by various national circumstances, must have existed in all times past, or nearly so. If it has not (as the author of thi? volume affirms it has not), the onus is to show what other principle has operated to check population from time to time, to prove the existence of such a principle, and to point out the times, the places, and the mode of its operation. To establish and explain this principle is the object of the following sheets. The immense importance of the subject, may, it is hoped, excuse and help to overcome the dryness of some of the details ; nor will the candid reader, on a topic at once so mysterious, and hitherto unexplained, suffer himself to be startled or turned aside by the apparent strangeness of the first enunciations of views on this subject (as the author conceives), nearly altogether new, and of facts certainly brought together and laid before the public in their present form for the first time.

It can hardly be expected of any one writing of matters so abstruse, that he should extract from them other entertainment than such subjects are in themselves calculated to produce. He can only, as a matter of prudent adventure, attempt to place the different points in as clear a light as possible, and with as little waste as may be, of the time and patience of his readers : elucidating where he can, all that is naturally involved or dark, and curtailing where he can, all that is naturally diffuse or voluminous.

B 2

It is not necessary, nor would it indeed expedite the purposes of clear arrangement . or lucid reasoning, to state in this part of the present work the accidental causes which led the author to the following inquiry. Suffice it at present to say, these causes were the result of another inquiry, so far collaterally bearing upon the subject now under discussion, as to throw a sudden light upon its fundamental principles, including as it did, a portion of the proofs of the reality, of those principles. Nor was the author dissatisfied, but quite the contrary, with the manner in which he was thus accidentally led to the road which he has followed. In matters of reasoning, it is upon the whole better to discover a track accidentally than after search for it ; because in the former case the imagination is in abeyance, and unconcerned in the result.

When men eagerly seek for a theory, they are too prone to hope they have found the true one, and it is needless to say that we are too ready to believe that which we earnestly wish. A discovery by accident, on the other hand, comes recommended only by itself: as no credit is sought for sagacity, and no reward for ingenuity expected, fancy, at all events, is not moved to interfere. The pleasure which alone is due to the discovery of truth, is not so liable to be given to that self-love which deceives us into the idea that such discovery is ours as matter of merit, because it has come unsought, and of course unanticipated. Such was the case with the contemplation of natural facts which led the author to attempt this exhibition of them, and being so, he trusts the remark is neither irrelevant nor useless.

In order to come in the clearest and fairest manner to the subject of this essay, the author deems the following to be the most advisable course. To state, first, in the tersest and at the same time, most lucid manner he can, the law by which he supposes population to be governed and regulated ; next, to prove the existence and operation of this law from such facts as he has collected, which in his opinion tend to demonstrate either or both of these points. The great general law then, which, as it seems, really regulates the increase or decrease both of vegetable and of animal life, is this, that whenever a species or genus is endangered, a corresponding effort is invariably made by nature for its preservation and continuance, by an increase of fecundity or fertility; and that this especially takes place whenever such danger arises from a diminution of proper nourishment or food, so that consequently the state of deploy tion, or the deplethoric state, is favourable, to fertility ; and that on the other hand, the plethoric state, or state of repletion, is unfavourable to fertility, in the ratio of the intensity of each state, and this probably throughout nature universally, in the vegetable as well as the animal world ; further, that as applied to mankind this law produces the following consequences, and acts thus : —

There is in all societies a constant increase going on amongst that portion of it which is the worst supplied with food ; in shorty amongst the poorest.

Amongst those in the state of affluence, and well supplied with food and luxuries, a constant decrease goes on. Amongst those who form the mean or medium between these two opposite states — that is to say, amongst those who are tolerably well supplied with good food, and not overworked, nor yet idle — population is stationary. Hence it follows that it is upon the numerical proportion which these three states bear to each other in any society that increase or decrease upon the whole depends.

In a nation where the affluence is sufficient to balance, by the decrease which it causes amongst the rich, the increase arising from the poor, population will be stationary. In a nation highly and generally affluent and luxurious, population will decrease and decay. In poor and ill-fed communities, population will increase in the ratio of the poverty, and the consequent deterioration and diminution of the food of a large portion of the members of such communities. This is the real and great law of human population, and to show that it unquestionably is so, must be the aim of the following pages.

In bringing forward the great variety of facts bearing upon this important inquiry, the author will begin with those exhibited by the vegetable kingdom ; he will next proceed to the animal creation, wherein the same principle is more distinctly developed, ending with the human world, the numbers composing which he will prove to ebb and flow as one or other of the different states he has described more or less prevails ; offering, in conclusion, such general reflections as are necessary completely to elucidate his scheme, and to show not only its wonderful agreement with the state of the world, as it is known to exist and to have existed, but its admirable unison with the wisdom and goodness of that divine Providence which " saw all that it had made," and saw that all was " very good," until marred by the wickedness, the folly, the error, or the ignorance of man.

OF POPULATION.

CHAPTEE II.

THE LAW OF INCREASE AND DECREASE IN THE VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL KINGDOMS.

Turning now to the vegetable kingdom, the author would point to the acknowledged existence of this principle in the theory and practice of all Horticulturists, Gardeners, and others engaged in raising trees, shrubs, flowers, and vegetables. It is a fact, admitted by all gardeners as well as botanists, that if a tree, plant, or flower, be placed in mould, either naturally or artificially made too rich for it, a plethoric state is produced, and fruitfulness ceases. Upon trees, the effect of strong manures and over-rich soils is, that they run to superfluous wood, blossom irregularly, and chiefly at the extremities of the outer branches, and almost or entirely cease to bear fruit.

With flowering shrubs and flowers the effect is, first, that the flower becomes double, and loses its power of producing seed ; next, it ceases almost even to flower. If the application of the stimulus of manure is carried still further, flowers and plants become diseased in the extreme, and speedily die ; thus, by this wise provision of Providence, the transmission of disease (the certain consequence of the highly plethoric state, whether in plants, animals, or in mankind) is guarded against, and the species shielded from danger on the side of plenty. In order to remedy .this state when accidentally produced, Gardeners and Florists are accustomed, by various devices, to produce the opposite or deplethoric state ; this they familiarly denominate " giving a check." In other words, they put the species in danger in order to produce a correspondingly determined effort of nature to ensure its perpetuation, and the end is invariably attained. Thus, in order to make fruit trees bear plentifully, Gardeners delay or impede the rising of the sap by cutting rings in the bark round the tree. This to the tree is the production of a state of depletion, and the abundance of fruit is the effort of nature to counteract the danger. The fig, when grown in this climate, is particularly liable to drop its fruit when half matured. This, Gardeners now find can be prevented by pruning the tree so severely as to give it a check ; or, if grown in a pot, by cutting a few inches from its roots all round so as to produce the same effect. The result is, that the tree retains, and carefully matures its fruit.

In like manner, when a gardener wishes to. save seed from a gourd or cucumber, he does not give the plant an extra quantity of manure or warmth. He does just the contrary : he subjects it to some hardship and takes the fruit that is hast fine-looking, foreknowing that it will be filled with seed, whilst the finest fruit are nearly destitute. Upon the same principle, it is a known fact, that after severe and long winters the harvests are correspondingly rapid and abundant. Vines bear most luxuriantly after being severely tried by frost ; and grass springs in the same extraordinary manner. After the long and trying winter of 1836-7, when the snow lay upon the ground in the northern counties until June, the spring of grass was so wonderful as to cause several minute experiments by various persons. The result was, that in a single night of twelve hours the blade of grass was ascertained frequently to have advanced full three-quarters of an inch ; and wheat and other grain progressed in a similar manner.

Aware of this beautiful law of preservation, the Florist, when he wishes to ensure the luxuriant flowering of a greenhouse or hothouse shrub or plant, exposes it for a time to the cold. The danger caused by the temperature, too low for the nature of the species of plant, is followed invariably by an effort of nature for its safety, and it flowers luxuriantly ; and if a seed-bearing plant, bears seed accordingly.

There is another curious modification of this law exhibited by the vegetable creation, and this is, that immediately before the death, or the sudden cessation of fruitfulness of a tree or shrub, it is observed generally to bear abundantly. This is remarkably the case with the pear and apple when the roots touch the harsh, cold blue clay, or any other soil inimical to the health of the tree. It is a last effort to preserve and perpetuate the species, and is the effect of that state of depletion through which the tree passes to sterility and death.

The singularly close analogy which these facts bear to that which can be proved, and indeed is well known to take place with the human female, when fed on insufficient food, or when married too near the usual period of cessation of fertility, will be more fully adverted to in the proper place. In the meantime, what can he more pleasing than to contemplate this beautiful provision of the Governor of all things, by which fruitfulness is increased when the danger arises from insufficient nourishment for the plant or vegetable, and, on the other hand, decreased when the peril springs from a surplusage of what is needful. Thus carefully is the species guarded from extinction by want on one hand, and by implanted disease and vitiated and irregular vegetation on the other — a two-fold distribution of extremes, with a medium of average and moderate fruitfulness between them ; that happy mean being disturbed only for a time to ensure as far as possible a return to it.

Turning our attention now to the animal creation, this law will be found to be still more distinctly developed, as well as more generally observed and acted upon.

The practical evidence of the farmer, the grazier, and the breeder of horses, is here corroborated by, and, in its turn, helps to prove, the theories of the Physiologist and Natural Historian ; whilst, with the human animal, these theories are again demonstrated, both by the theories and practice of the Physician and Pathologist.

There cannot be a doubt that, with the animal creation — including in that term birds and quadrupeds (of the habits of fish we know little or nothing) — .fecundity is totally checked by the plethoric state, when induced, and increased, and rendered doubly certain, by the existence of the deplethoric or lean state ; whilst a moderated prolificness is the effect of the state between the two. This is more or less the case even with the most prolific animals. The rabbit and the swine are extraordinary in this respect ; yet every schoolboy knows that the doe, or female rabbit, and every farmer and breeder knows that the sow will not conceive if fed to a certain height of fatness; and that the number of the progeny is generally in the ratio of the leanness of the animal. All cattle-breeders know the same law to be especially true in the cases of the mare, the cow, and the ewe, with which leanness is indispensable to conception ; and upon their knowledge of this truth they invariably act. In the mare this is sometimes evinced in an extraordinary degree. A friend of the author, who, being of the medical profession, is peculiarly observant of all cases of this nature, has assured him that he has known a highly-bred blood mare, which, for a length of time, appeared to be incurably barren, and from which the owner was naturally very desirous to obtain a breed, rendered fertile, and ultimately the dam of a numerous progeny, by being put literally to the plough and cart, fed sparingly, and worked down to a state of extreme leanness and temporary exhaustion, by this unusual employment.

In the sheep, however, this principle of increase or decrease is most nicely developed. It is invariably found that, if over-fed, sterility is the consequence. On the other hand, in accordance with the leanness of the animal, a produce of one, two, or three lambs takes place. Upon their knowledge of this fact the improvers of the breed of this animal are accustomed to act. In order to afford the best chance of a perfect animal, it is believed that a produce of one lamb at a birth is desirable ; and this the breeders of sheep contrive to secure by apportioning the food of the ewe to such a nicety, that, avoiding sterility on one hand, and a double or triple birth on the other, a single lamb is almost invariably the offspring of the animal so limited. Of the effect of " condition" upon the fertility of animals, this seems to be one of the strongest of all possible proofs. It is also a fact known to all stock-farmers, that during severe seasons, when food is scarce, most lambs are, on the average, produced. Mild, open winters are not favourable to the increase of sheep, because, during such winters, grass is plentiful.

The conflicts that take place amongst all wild grazing animals at the time of rutting or breeding are no doubt intended for the same end — to lower their condition to the prolific point.

Upon birds the same state of plethora produces similar defertilising effects. This is well known to be the case with domestic poultry, of which the little familiar French fable of " Une Femme et sa Poule" is an amusing evidence. The good dame, desirous of an increased supply of eggs, crams the poor pullet with double rations of grain. The hen, as well she may, becomes enormously fat (fort grassej, and the consequence is, that not another egg will she lay. With other domesticated fowls, similar causes are known to produce similar effects. Tame pigeons will not increase if pampered with an unlimited quantity of food ; and to stop the produce of the pigeon-house it is equally effectual to cram them with victuals or to deny it altogether ; in which latter case, inexpert in the art of catering or feeding, they are compelled to wander so long and far in search of it, and are altogether so ignorant of their duty, that they cannot supply their young ones ; in the former they have none to supply.