Learning from Resilience Strategies in Tanzania

Front matter

Learning from Resilience Strategies in Tanzania

An outlook of International Development Challenges

Pascaline Gaborit and Donath Olomi (Eds)

Part II: Resilience to Global Challenges and to Climate Change

Chapter 4: Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) and Local Supply Chains: Prospects on Poverty Reduction,

Trust and Sustainability 00.0.0... ccecceseeceeseneeeeeneeees

FELIX ADAMU NANDONDE, PHD AND PASCALINE GABORIT PHD

8 Table of Content

Chapter 5: Vulnerabilities and Resilience to Climate Change in Tanzania sicciassistnhiccninivancinnccusnnsiess 155

PASCALINE GABORIT PHD

Chapter 6: Forests’ Management and Protection in

PROF. MAGRETH S. BUSHESHA AND PASCALINE GABORIT PHD

Chapter 7: An Account on the Resilience of Tanzanias Private Sector jssniccdrciomrailadiiatniamiimanide 211

Chapter 8: Civic Participation and Water Governance in the Kiroka Village of Tanzania 0.0.0.0... ccc eeseeeseeeeees 235

SAIDA S. FUNDI PHD

Chapter 9: Conflict Prevention, Dialogue and

Pror. ÉLISE FERON PHD AND CÆCILIE SVOP JENSEN

Part III: The Role of Women between Vulnerability and Resilience

Chapter 10: From Women to Gender and Intersectionality: Rethinking Approaches to

PROF. ÉLISE FÉRON PHD (TAMPERE PEACE RESEARCH INSTITUTE)

Chapter 11: Minority Participation of Women in Economic

Table of Content

Chapter 12: Women in the Informal Sector in Tanzania:

The Case of Dar Es Salaam City 0.00.0... ccecceeeneetees

CONSTANTINE GEORGE, CORNEL JOSEPH PHD AND Corman T. Msoka PHD

Contributions and Acknowledgements ...s.sssssssssssessesssesssssrssssssrsse

Introduction Chapter PASCALINE GABORIT PHD

“There is hope in every African village” Bertrand Ginet Co-Founder Pilot4dev

This chapter is the introduction from a multi-faceted collective book, gathering multi-disciplinary research and analysis of several researchers. It approaches the different resilience strategies in Tanzania, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic This collective research considers theoretical concepts such as resilience, gender equality, conflicts prevention and climate change.

Tanzania has been considered a model for development, peace and stability despite the arrival of refugees from neighbouring countries, and the potential tensions linked to the economy or to climate change. Although it has accessed the rank of Middle-Income Country, the country is at a crossroad still facing several challenges. The needs remain important in terms of health facilities, water, sanitation, climate adaptation, the development of civil society and poverty alleviation. At least 26.4 % of the population still lives in poverty’. An important part of the population works in the informal sector in both urban and rural areas. The relations between the private sector and the public government have been stormy, while analysis on women’s resilience strategies, climate adaptation, conflict prevention, multinationals/supply chains, or on the informal sector offer vastly different angles of approach. In 2020, the COVID pandemic has come as a shock worldwide, and has raised many questions on how the different regions and countries could adapt and develop resilience strategies in an unpredictable context. This collective book is not only about Tanzania, but about what we can learn from resilience strategies in Tanzania. It provides in alternance chapters based on empirical field studies and more theoretical chapters.

This introduction chapter first approaches resilience as a multi-disciplinary concept explaining why Tanzania is of particular interest in terms of research on resilience strategies (1). Then, a general description of the country is provided addressing the transformation needs of the country

According to the world development indicators database the poverty headcount ratio at 1.90 dollars a day was still 49,1 % in Tanzania in 2016 and the shock created by the COVID pandemic (2). Finally, this introduction chapter will present the objectives of this research book (3), its methodology as well as its structure and content.

1. Resilience as a Multi-disciplinary Concept

Resilience is a cross-disciplinary concept referring to the ability to cope, recover and build back from stress, shocks, and crisis. Originated from the world of physics and sciences where it merely meant “bounce back”, it has been eventually applied to psychology, and has since then been widely used in other areas such as disaster management. Its use as a concept in policy discourse has been exponential since the 2000s (Brassett et al., 2013; Brinkmann et al., 2017). The soaring use of the concept of resilience in policies can be interpreted as a progressive acceptance that “sustainability” will not be an easy path, and that societies, economies, cities, organizations still need to cope with disruptions. In that sense, resilience is associated to a decrease in the faith towards continuous progress, especially in the areas of climate related disasters, economy, stability and development.

In the field of economics, the concept of resilience presents the advantage of considering the ability to recover from severe crises linked to exogenous factors, and to minimize the risks of recession (Hallegate, 2014). Economic resilience has been iconized by the country of Singapore which has been able to resist to the 2008 economic crisis, despite its remarkably high economic and territorial interdependence. This has been called the ‘Singapore paradox’ (Briguglio et al., 2008). In a Research paper dated from 2008 (Briguglio et al., 2008), the United Nations University explicitly links the concept of Resilience to Vulnerability. The authors of the paper define economic vulnerability as ‘the exposure of an economy to exogeneous shocks, arising out economic openness, while economic resilience is defined as the policy-induced ability of an economy to withstand or recover from such shocks’ (Briguglio et al., 2008). This definition links economic resilience to four broad areas identified as main factors-namely macroeconomic stability, microeconomic market efficiency, good governance and social development. In the present book, we will not restrict the concept of resilience to its economic application. The research will embrace different aspects and areas such as socio-economic development and realities (Part I), the adaptation to climate change and other global challenges (Part II) and the role of women (Part III). We will therefore consider the broader definition: Resilience as a cross-disciplinary concept referring to the ability to cope, recover and build back from stress, shocks, and crises.

Resilience = through pillars and processes

Capacities

Stakeholders

Disciplines

Source: Adapted from Prof. Youssef Diab UGE Paris and Pascaline Gabork Pllotddey

Fig. 1: Resilience through pillars and processes (Adapted from Youssef Diab EIVP team 2020, Pascaline Gaborit Pilot4Dev.)

The concept of resilience however comes along with strong limitations: its undifferentiated use may transform it into a new ‘buzz word’, emptied of its substance (Brinkmann et al., 2017). For some authors it would be inherently “messy” in its application (Harris et al., 2017). Its misuse would come with a “negative side” such as the one to underestimate the impacts of damages and disasters (Mahdiani, 2020). For instance, in a context of pandemic, post-disasters or post-terror attacks, focusing on resilience can be in contradiction with grief and support to the victims. ‘Resilience seems to carry a productive ambiguity that both resists exact definition and allows for a spectrum of interactions and engagements between policy and the everyday which are as (seemingly) effective as they are (apparently) apolitical’ (Brassett et al., 2013, p. 221).

The concept also has been criticized as addressing both a process and an outcome, or as ignoring the questions of power and justice (Harris et al., 2017, Chapter Féron).

Indeed, a focus on resilience related to the anticipation of risks in policies or in practice may bring losers and winners as resilience actions can be performed at the expense of some groups or stakeholders. Some authors such as Ziervogel et al. (2017) also highlight the fact that ‘the level of acceptable risk can very much vary from one group to another, as can the level of exposure to the risk. This raises governance questions — who determines the acceptable levels of risks? Under what ground? Who benefits from resilience actions or policies’ operationalisation? The Covid-19 crisis has quite synthetized such dilemmas in many countries, on whether the health, the economy’s vulnerability, or the population wellbeing and freedoms should be prioritized as the most resilient response.

Even more of a concern — practitioners in the areas of development and humanitarian aid sometimes see this concept as a real threat. The tagline “Only the strong survive’ could sooner or later be replaced by ‘Only the resilient survive’ in the practice of disaster management and humanitarian aid. In the sector of security, people (as opposed to groups, states of communities) could be increasingly considered as responsible for developing a response (Brassett et al., 2013). The use of the term — in an international context in particular — can induce an ideology ‘affirming the responsibility of non-Western societies for their own threats and insecurities, whether from conflict, poverty or environmental devastation (Chandler, 2013, p. 279). It also raises subsequent related questions — what is the contrary of resilience: is it destruction? (...) What are the indicators for a possible assessment?

The complexity of the concept and its application should however not dismiss or disqualify the use of resilience as a concept. Its appropriate use can bring strength to risk management practices in an uncertain or unpredictable context. This means that advocating resilience should be well-thought and embed complexity. For example, policy and development programs with a focus on resilience should not replace prevention and assistance to vulnerable groups. Disasters resilient infrastructure should add up to and not replace early warning systems. We should not exclude what we could call a “Titanic Syndrome” or a vicious circle by which a focus on resilience would overshadow the necessity of any emergency response. Indeed, resilience should not mean less emphasis on the anticipation of risks.

We suggest several precautions and clarifications for the concept to be used: the fact that resilience can be applied as a system trait, as a process and as an outcome (Brassett et al., 2013), the growing emphasis on measuring resilience (Moser et al., 2019), the importance of resilience strategies in dealing with uncertainty or unpredictability, the necessity to address multiple and diverse interests and the integration of the risks’ anticipation in the analysis.

The UN Sendai Disaster Framework, adopted in 2015, is equally interesting to overcome all these questions, as it proposes a multiplesteps approach: prevention, preparedness, early warning, recovery and reconstruction. Although this Framework does not apply literally to all areas — like economic shocks — it has the advantage of countering possible misinterpretations. Authors such as Harris et al. (2017), have equally suggested the concept of “negotiated resilience” to address the concept in its complexity. They define it as a process that requires engagement with diverse actors and interests, and which will inevitably lead to possible diverse options and trade-offs. This concept of “negotiated resilience” is particularly interesting in the socio-economic area, as the economy entails many choices, options and reliance on macroeconomic policies. In contrast, the concept of “social-ecological” resilience defined by Beichler (2014) also presents the advantage of addressing the environmental and social issues but may be less relevant in a context of economic crisis or disasters’ management.

Throughout this book and as we move on from one chapter to the other, the concept of resilience will be taken in its broad definition. By focusing on strategies, it enables to cover the realities of different contexts and stakeholders. Our choice answers practical, but also cross-disciplinary reasons. We should admit that there are necessarily multiple interests, stakeholders and decision-making mechanisms at stake in advocating resilience strategies. Let’s illustrate this with environmental examples — the stakeholders working in the energy sector and the ones working in the water sector could have different views and interests on resilience strategies (Harris et al., 2017), the urban stakeholders will traditionally propose different resilience strategies than the ones involved in rural livelihoods. Even within cities boundaries, stakeholders active in residential areas will propose different resilience strategies than the

Tab. 1: Resilience in a nutshell and application to the book’s chapters

Resilience

Possible uses Disaster management including pandemics or floods, climate adaptation, economic shocks, external shocks including conflicts or emergency situations.

Critics Buzzword, covering both a process, a trait or an outcome, approach putting the responsibility on the impacted groups, may lead to a confidence excess and a decrease of risk anticipation (Titanic syndrome), may serve the interest of some groups and ignore the questions of power and justice.

Induced by the Importance of the concept to deal with uncertainty, shift from

use of the term understanding resilience to active resilience building, growing emphasis on transformation/changes, and on measuring resilience.

Orientations Negotiated resilience, economic resilience, socio-economic resilience, resilience to disasters, environmental resilience

Disciplines Social, environmental, climatic, economic architecture and

Covered infrastructure planning, engineering.

Source author ones involved in informal settlements. This co-existence of these multiple interests and views on resilience strategies is likely to be more important as the challenges are increasing.

The question of “build back better”, which is the latest stage of the steps approach to resilience, will lead to a diversity of options, solutions, debates and choices as there will not be one single path. The book will try to address resilience by covering different notions and understandings of the concept and its application depending on the priorities, scales, contexts, sectors or interests. Finally, by focusing on strategies it will reflect on the realities of different stakeholders.

The concept of resilience has the advantage of combining academic and practitioners’ expertise (Brassett et al., 2013), which is very much necessary in a research program such as the project Pilot 4 Research and Dialogue. It also connects different disciplines and presents the advantage of being cross-disciplinary (Beichler, 2014). The concept will guide us through the potentials and risks of the economy, faced with probably the largest world’s crisis known since the beginning of the 2000s. This publication’s objective is to base our analysis on experienced research and analysis in the country, and to identify broader thoughts and ideas on the resilience strategies and capacity to cope and recover from crises.

2. Tanzania at a Crossroad towards a More Sustainable Development Path

The project Pilot 4 Research and Dialogue is taking place in Tanzania. Tanzania is one of the largest countries in East Africa. According to the World Bank’s figures in 2016, the country’s population is very young: 45 % of the population is below the age of 15. The population is expected to reach 87.2 million in 2030. Currently with 58.2 million inhabitants, Tanzania’s population is widely dispersed with 70 % of the population living in rural regions and a density of 60 hab/km?.

Young people represent a strength for the country’s future, with 800,000 young people entering the labour force every year (World Bank Group, 2016). The country is endowed with rich natural resources and an important wildlife which are key elements for developing a sustainable and resilient model of development (Garcia et al., 2017). Tanzania has a presidential-parliamentary system. The political power has been centralized around the presidency since the independence in 1961. In March 2021, Samia Suluhu has succeeded to John Magufuli as sixth President of the United Republic of Tanzania. She is the first woman President of the country. The country is currently embarked in its second five Year Development Plan (FYDP) 2016/2017—2020/2021. The aim of the FYDP II is ‘to bring about fundamental improvements in Tanzanians’ lives’ with a focus on ‘nurturing industrialization for economic and human development’. The plan rests on three pillars ‘industrialization, human development, implementation and effectiveness’. The 3" Five Years Development Plan is being elaborated. Despite the difficulties in analysing the exact state of the art, these documents are an important framework for policies, as is the Tanzania Development Vision 2025 (TDV).

Despite the country acceding to the lower-middle-income status in 2019, which is an undeniable achievement, Tanzania remains a developing economy in terms of per capita income (Garcia et al., 2017). In 2019, the GDP per capita is indeed estimated to be around $959 (CIA, 2020). In the last decade, the country has reached high growth rates (6.8 % in average), based on its natural resources, and was one of the fastest growing economies globally (Garcia et al., 2017). Although around 65- 70 % of the Tanzanians are occupied in the sector of agriculture, other sectors have emerged: construction, wholesale and retail trade, public administration and manufacture contributed respectively to 12 %, 10 %, 7 % and 6 % of Tanzania GDP in 2016 (CIA, 2016).

The country has experienced several success stories in wildlife conservation programs both for land and marine ecosystems (Zeppel, 2011; Sullivan et al. 2014; Turner et al., 2014). Other success stories from the country include the soaring tourism sector — the country welcomed over 1.5 million visitors in 2019 — and a successful governance model for the mining sector, including a dialogue with the stakeholders and civil society (Bishagazi, 2020).

‘The improvement of education in the country has been remarkable. The primary schools’ enrolment rate has risen from 59 % in 2000 to 95 % in 2017 (Garcia et al., 2017). Net enrolment in secondary schools has also expanded quickly from 6 % in 2001 to over 30 % in 2011, even though the corollary is that 70 % of the children are not benefitting from a secondary education. Indeed, fees for primary schools have been abolished in 2001, as well as fees for secondary education in 2015. Although strong barriers remain in terms of modernization and equipment, poor rural households have benefitted from basic education to catch up with their urban counterparts (Garcia et al., 2017). UNICEE however, noticed that an important percentage of children remain out of school (around 2 million), that the learning skills efficiency remains insufficient, and that young girls face an important chance of school dropout’. This was equally highlighted by previous research reports (Johnson, 2011).

2.1. Tanzania’s Growing Economy and Transformation Needs

According to the main international institutions in the latest years and before the world crisis, the Tanzanian economy had shown positive trends, despite a slowdown over the two last years’. ‘Improvement would be subject to favorable international trends, prudent fiscal management,

Education | UNICEF United Republic of Tanzania World development indicators, world bank 2020 https://data.worldbank.org/country/Tanzania mitigation of financial sector vulnerabilities’, fair and consistent poverty alleviation, and implementation of reforms to improve the business environment .

Tanzania has been considered a model for development, peace and stability despite the arrival of refugees from neighbouring countries and the potential tensions created by climate change. The EU Index Inform disaster risks categorizes Tanzania as a country with a high vulnerability to natural hazards but low risks in terms of human conflicts’. From a Human Development point of view, the needs remain important in terms of health facilities, water, sanitation, education, the development of civil society and poverty alleviation. At least 26.4 % of the population lives in poverty, and according to the world development indicators database, the poverty headcount ratio at 1.90 dollars a day was still 49.1 % in 2016. An important part of the population is currently working in the informal sector in both urban and rural areas (Chapter Pallangyo).

In terms of exposure to hazards and vulnerabilities, the question of public health remains at stake with a strong prevalence of Malaria, among others. In its terminology, the UNDRR (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction) defines vulnerability as a set of conditions leading to exposure to hazards: ‘Conditions determined by physical, social, economic and environmental factors or processes which increase the susceptibility of an individual, a community, assets or systems to hazards’. Vulnerability encompasses concepts such as sensitivity or susceptibility to harm, and lack of capacity to cope and adapt (Butterfield, 2020). According to the World Health Organization in 2019 and the Severe Malaria Observatory’, Tanzania is among the ten countries with the highest malaria cases and deaths (3 % of the global cases, 13.4 % of cases in East and Southern Africa and 5 % of global deaths). Waterborne diseases, such as Typhoid and Cholera, are also a concern for the population. So far, Zanzibar has experienced 17 major cholera outbreaks since 1978, especially in areas with a chronic shortage of water and poor access to adequate sanitation (UNICEF). The Government’s efforts to improve access to safe drinking water and sanitation are challenged by climate

Tanzania Economic Outlook, African development Bank, 2020 https://www.afdb. org/en/countries-east-africa-tanzania/tanzania-economic-outlook

Project Pilot 4 Research and Dialogue. ° INFORM Risk — Dashboard (europa.eu)

‘Tanzania | Severe Malaria Observatory change factors, and the sea-level rise leading to the pollution of freshwater resources.

This book argues, throughout the pages, that the country has enough assets and resources to become a leader of sustainability and stability in the region. Tanzanias potential in terms of human resources and skills are tremendous, just as much as the challenges ahead.

Agriculture still employs 65-70 % of the population (World Bank Group, 2016). The sector mainly relies on a rainfed pattern. Therefore, it is very vulnerable to climate change, creating problems in terms of food security. The transformation from rainfed agriculture to irrigation agriculture remains an important challenge for the next few years (Teske et al., 2017). Access to electricity is equally a challenge — in 2014 only 11 % of the households were connected to the grid, and only 1 % was able to use the electricity for cooking (Duarte, 2015). Although the figures have increased, 35 million people still did not access electricity in 2019 (CIA, 2020). The reliance of the country to large hydropower energy supply makes it very vulnerable to climate change. In 2012 already, a drought period had caused severe disruption to the system (Teske et al., 2017; Garcia et al., 2017). The development of renewable energies represents an important opportunity to clamp down on deforestation (Teske et al., 2017; Garcia et al., 2017 chapters Gaborit, Bushesha et al.).

The country is indeed experiencing transformation needs in terms of forest conservation (Chapter Bushesha et al.) and challenges in climate adaptation (Chapter Gaborit). Indeed, most of the consumed energy comes from biomass and charcoal for household energy and cooking needs, leading to 100,000 to 125 000 ha of deforestation every year. The energy consumption is largely dominated by the consumption of biomass: 88 % of the total energy consumption is caused by the burn of biomass under the form of firewood and charcoal production for cooking in the rural areas (Duarte, 2015; Shaafsma et al., 2013; Rosa et al., 2018).

Just like other neighbouring countries, Tanzania is equally facing challenges related to governance, implementation of the tax system, fairness in tax harmonization, poverty alleviation, infrastructure, agricultural modernization, access to facilities in remote areas and job opportunities for the youth. Entrepreneurship and development are not only dependent on the skills development (Olomi, 2018), but also on the banking system to be more widely developed. Indeed, in a survey made by the World Bank Group, to the question “Do you have access to a bank account?”, only 23.4 % of the respondents have answered by the positive in urban areas, and this figure was only 5.1 % in rural areas (World Bank Group 2020, p. 49). In general, to the other question “Do you have access to a credit card or debit card?”, only 6.7 % of the respondents have answered by the positive. This makes it exceedingly difficult for entrepreneurs, micro-businesses, and young entrepreneurs to thrive.

Stability, security, and inclusiveness are part of the country’s long-term positioning. Development depends on infrastructure, trade, investment, and improvement of agriculture, food security, access to healthcare, education and poverty alleviation. Heavy infrastructure investments in rails, ports, and roads as part of the government’s investment plan were expected to be one of the main drivers of the GDP. However, the issue of resilience in terms of infrastructures to counter economic shocks and climate change remains important (Rudari et al. 2018; Winthrop et al., 2018). Some experts also pointed out the question of the difficulties in finalizing the current important public works’.

According to the World Bank Group (2015), “ Tanzania will look dramatically different by mi-century”. The country’s growing population will need to adapt to the already existing climate shifts, including rising temperatures, less predictable rainfalls and extreme weather events such as droughts, with spiralling effects on the agriculture sector.

Tanzanias population is estimated to grow, as well as urbanization. The population is expected to triple from 45 million in 2010 to 87.2 million in 2030 and 130 million in 2050’. By 2020, it already exceeded 59 million. Young people are a massive potential for development and represent an asset for macroeconomic reforms. A growing population will trigger increased demand for infrastructure, amenities, but also food and consumption. Finally, with the new current global challenges ahead, the question of development, fairness, and resilience will be at the heart of many national economies, including in Tanzania.

2.2. From Transformation Needs to COVID Shocks

The Covid-19 pandemic has affected the whole world’s economy while the prospects for Sub-Saharan African economies remain unknown (Teachout and Zipfel, 2020; Ataguba, 2020; Alon et al., 2020; Dangah,

Project Pilot 4 Research and Dialogue 2020 www.pilot4dialogue.com

World Bank Group Financing Climate-Resilient Growth in Tanzania, September 2015.

2020). Although European governments managed to limit the economic damages by launching recovery programs, sub-Saharan countries were shaken by massive public debt, and shortfalls in state revenue (Tharoor, 2020). The most vulnerable groups, and poor people living in the informal economies are facing deprivation. The UN’s World Food Programme (WFP) alerts against an increase in hunger and famine globally. At the same time, fatal health problems unrelated to Covid-19 also tend to increase (Tharoor, 2020; Teachout and Zipfel, 2020). Yet, the media focuses on Covid-19 while the researchers and journalists are hampered by the travel restrictions, making it difficult to find accurate data. As a result, evidence of the impacts of the pandemic on extreme poverty hunger and health (SDG 1,2,3) may be found only afterwards. According to the UN World’s Food program, around 135 million people worldwide faced acute food insecurity before the pandemic, and that number is expected to double in the next few years. According to the International Growth Center research, the containment measures in Sub-Saharan Africa in May 2020 have already pushed an additional 9.1 % of the population into extreme poverty (Teachout Zipfel).

The other development programs related to the implementation of the SDGs may slow down or be cut, along with the implementation of new priorities. This trend may affect water and sanitation programs (SDG6) and the fight against climate change (SDG13). NGOs and international organizations warn us against a reversal in the implementation of the SDGs (Tharoor, 2020), while development aid and international solidarity could stagger in the next few years.

Despite the country not experiencing a strict lockdown and while agriculture has been maintained, specific sectors such as tourism, interregional trade and private investments were affected. Some authors demonstrate how negative news can harm economic development, especially in the tourism sector (Besley, Fetzer, and Mueller 2020). Indeed, recent research papers show that in Tanzania, the COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected the lives of millions of people, especially in the areas of the agricultural sector, health, hospitality and tourism among other sectors.

According to the World Bank Group, general growth has remained perceptible: 6.1 % in 2019 due mainly to the rise in gold export’ prices (World Bank Group, 2020). A quick estimate by some research authors report that 60 % of Tanzanians would be at risk of losing their jobs due to the pandemic’s indirect consequences (Saleh, 2020). The negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic caused severe food insecurity, the decline in tourism, banking sector, education, health, among others driven in large part across the globe and Tanzania is no exception (Saleh, 2020; Adam et al., 2020). “The COVID-19 pandemic and policy responses to it, both nationally and globally confronts the low-income and lower-middle-income countries of Africa with an economic crisis, which is potentially bigger than anything most have ever had to deal with outside of war and civil conflicts’ (Adam et al., 2020, p. 19). The government's policy choices will depend on the evolution of the global situation in restoring global markets even though the protection of the most vulnerable populations may still be at stake during the recovery phase.

The restrictions have hardly hit the tourism sector which represented 26 % of the foreign income (World Bank Group, 2020) and it is expected that the hotel occupancy rate will decline from the 50.3 % average reported in 2019 (Saleh, 2020). Some prices of export goods have also been falling. For instance, from the beginning of 2020, prices for cotton and coffee have decreased by more than 10 % and 24 % respectively (Saleh, 2020). It is estimated that the major export destinations have slowed down for the key agricultural products, including fish, tobacco and coffee (Saleh, 2020). The local investors are expected to have less confidence and delay their investments (for instance, in the infrastructure or energy sectors). In general, agricultural exports have declined. The mining sector, which was a key success in the policy of national reappropriation of growth (while discouraging Foreign Direct Investment) in the years before COVID, is reported to face serious challenges such as the disruption of global supply chains, decrease of exportations and slowdown of operations by mining companies. Although it is too soon to have an exact estimate of the consequences on the economy, the elements above show that there is a risk of negative down spiralling for the whole economy.

In addition, the period of uncertainties has inevitably led to hesitations from the private sector while disruptions have hit the informal sector in food and goods’ supply. However, as still 65-70 % of Tanzanians are occupied in the agricultural sector, the damages may be more counted in terms of revenue loss, and in the risk that many Tanzanians would be thrust below the poverty line.

According to simulations from the 2018 World Bank Group

Households’ survey ‘an additional 500 000 Tanzanians could fall below the poverty line, particularly those in urban settings relying on self-employment and informal micro-enterprises (World Bank Group, 2020). The question of food security is also critical. According to figures from the UNICEF in 2015, more than 2.7 million Tanzanian children under 5 years of age were estimated to be stunted, and more than 600,000 were suffering from acute malnutrition, of which 100,000 were severe cases. This trend is severely linked with the impacts of climate change but could also be worsened in the current economic context impacted by the COVID 19 pandemic. Although it was not possible to find current studies for Tanzania, other studies focused on Kenya and Uganda show a net increase of food insecurity among the local populations (Kansiime et al., 2020). Other research reports noted an increase in Kenya's food prices, especially for maize, eggs, vegetables and milk (Ogenga and Baraza, 2020).