Russia and China

Front matter

Michat Lubina

Russia and China

A political marriage of convenience — stable and successful

Contents

Preface c e a dee c o OB d aa Bakes 9 IntrodUctiofi:. cce a te rt e DR RE D e RU e RE Ee de n 13 3. The Argument: 17th Century as the Model 2." The "Rüsstamldea, ei tse ta debt er stn 29 A. "Russia I ASIa ss eicere neq tes 38 5. China's SirocentricIsm..;.. oec tree e es eend 42 10. Yeltsin's Russia and his Policy Concepts... 51 LT. Putin and Putirism...: dee ie he edes 53 12..-Pütin-ànd. Chiría Jet n eere eee need 55 14. Xi Jinping and his “Chinese Dream"... 63 15- Putin And Xa ceci ie eR E RO AE 65 III. *Democratization of International Relations": I. “Soft Revisionists” .. iani cece sees sede sccesstes (essa cet eee teres 71 2:~ “Strategic: Screen" is usce tin tete e e e Itl teas 75 6. Russia and China in International Organizations, Groups, and Forums... essere etate recti denn 89

Part One. Geopolitics and Beyond

3. "Strategic Partnership” sciinte eien i 101 55: IL September 2001... reo decere 112 8. The Economic Crisis of 2008 and Its Consequences for Bilateral Relations 00... ceecescceseeesseceeeeceeceeeseceeeecaeeeceeeneees 126 9. The US Pivot to Asia and Its Impact 12. Embracing One Belt One Road: L. :Economic Relations... erecti citer c e Dee c 160 2. Economic Cooperation in 2000-2017: 3. The ESPO Oil Pipeline and the “Power of Siberia" Gas Pipeline; ie one nente eive e e Ede 168 4. "Trade Volume... iio eee ater tes 177 2x. DUMUNALY on sitse tin to misera idonee 183 IL Militàry Relations enerne erint de ea 184 Too AtinsSAale8:52 ce eee Reverend cur 185 3.. SUMMARY ote torre eee deae aeree e is E nore ipee 199 I. he Domestic Context c.i eere eerte 200 2. From Open to Closed Borders: The Russian Far East

5. Big Plans, Little Results: 3. Border Issues: "The Shanghai Five"... 238 AS “The USA MovesIn.: ener ec tte oon neni 239 PEN CUM Ek 264 3. China-Russia Ambiguity in Asia-Pacific... 266 4. Russia's Balancing Attempts... 268 5. Japan as the Balancer ertani a E E O 272 6. The Dream of the Concert of Asia... 275 7. Russia's Pivot to Asia... een eene nennen 279 RETELENCES set cete s ceetaseea teo ten sce dteeci Lom Ded dane Ed Cue qa 295 dE RD D RE 323

Preface

Everything that needs to be said has already been said. But since no one was listening, everything must be said again. André Gide

Sino-Russian relations have recently become much discussed, even popular, if not trendy. There is a certain logic in this fact. Because of objective reasons, such as the giant territories of the two countries, their position and political influence, geographical location, and economic and military potential, Sino- Russian relations are one of the most important global political issues. However, since their spectacular rapprochement in 2014, Sino-Russian relations drew even closer attention which increases the interest in researching the Moscow-Beijing dynamics.

The aim of this publication is to depict the sophisticated relationship between Russia and China from the USSR’s dissolution (1991) to the Silk Road Forum in Beijing (2017), and to present the growing asymmetry in their relations. It shows that the Russia-China relationship is pragmatic, a political “marriage of convenience” which serves as a means to increase their global influence. Russia and China are two different worlds, maybe even two different civilizations. They do do not trust each other; however, that does not stop them from developing relations and doing business together. Thus, they constitute a paradoxical relationship based on convience, yet successful and stable at the same time.

The last two decades were decisive for the character of Moscow-Beijing relations. For the first time in contemporary history, Russia faces a China stronger than itself — Beijing achieved a multidimensional advantage and became the senior partner. This book shows the origins of this process, presents how it happened and gives prognoses for the future. It explains that Beijing is implementing what may be described with a paradoxical phrase as "the asymmetric win-win” agenda: both sides gain, but it is China that wins more, much more. The book shows the possible consequences of this situation — “a return to the past" — and claims that despite this asymmetry, Sino-Russian relations will remain strong.

This book is a continuation of my PhD dissertation (“Growing asymmetry. Sino-Russian relations in 1991-2011"), published in Polish with the title *Niedzwiedz w cieniu smoka” (The Bear Overshadowed by the Dragon). This monograph, however, has undergone such major changes compared to the Polish edition that it has become a distinct book — around 35% of this book is

1 M.Lubina, NiedZwiedz w cieniu smoka. Rosja-Chiny 1991-2014 [The Bear Overshadowed by the Dragon. Russia-China 1991-2014], Krakow 2014.

entirely new. I supplemented the description for the period between 2015 and 2017, and I had to shorten this book from its initial 623 pages, which forced me to systematize and synthesize the contents and to highlight the most important aspects. Presenting the book to international readers deprived me of one of my assets — contrary to the Polish edition, this is not the first book on contemporary Sino-Russian relations. Thus, I needed to transform the contents, to eliminate many aspects well-known to international readers and to emphasize my original thesis: the "return to the past", to the 17th century model of Sino-Russian relations.

Therefore, in this book I will present Sino-Russian relations as the return to the past. Although the conditions and political decorum changed, a roughly similar model exists today. If one compares the 17th century relations between the two countries with the current ones, one can trace some striking similarities. The most important one being that China is much stronger in this relationship (like it used to be in the 17th century) and Russia accepts this fact (albeit quietly) and adheres to this situation by taking as many opportunities as possible. China's policy towards Russia today is a pragmatic equivalent of the 17th century Manchu politics, focused on having a long-lasting deal with Moscow in order to have it not endanger China's policies. This deal was made on Chinese terms, though with some benefits for Russia as well. Therefore, this is an adaptation of the 17th century model of relations: both countries benefit from their mutual relations, however, it is China that benefits more.

I am fully aware that some may not find this idea particularly innovative; it Is a platitude to say that history repeats itself. Yet, I believe that applying this very obvious idea to contemporary Russia-China relations is something new — to my best knowledge nobody did this before, at least not in a book or in a peer-review journal article. And in my book, I will try to prove the hypothesis that Russia-China relations came back to its initial stage. After all, I believe — as many Asians do — that the world is spherical and historical periods come around in cycles.

This book is a result of my fourteen years of study on Russia-China relations: first at Jagiellonian University at the faculties of the Russian Studies and the Far Eastern Studies, then at a scholarship in Beijing in 2009-2010, as well as during many visits to Russia (over a dozen since 2004) and China (annually since 2006), and innumerous discussions with Russian, Chinese and Western specialists in the field. That is why the list of acknowledgments would be too long, so I will limit myself to the people who supported me with this edition.

Writing this book would have been impossible without the support of my family, friends, and colleagues. I would like to thank especially Professor Salvatore Babones from University of Sydney who convinced me to publish this book in English and who helped me intellectually and technically with this work; to Barbara Budrich, my publisher, who has trusted an internationally unknown young Polish researcher and to Marcin Grabowski from Jagiellonian

University, whose support was instrumental in making the publication of this book possible. I would also like to express my gratitude to the Jagiellonian University’s Faculty of International and Political Studies for providing some sources for proofreading of this book, to Malgorzata Kmita who proofread it and to the three anonymous reviewers whose comments on my work helped me to improve it.

In my research career at Jagiellonian University, I benefitted from the support of Professor Adam W. Jelonek and the mentorship of Professor Bogdan Góralczyk from University of Warsaw. I owe my gratitude to Professor Roman Backer, Professor Joachim Diec and Professor Mieczysław Smolen, too. Conversations with Jacek Bartosiak, Andrzej Bolesta, Adrian Brona, Lukasz Fyderek, Stefan Hejnowicz, Robert Krzesaj, Marcin Kaczmarski, Piotr Leszezewicz, Aleksandra Lopinska, Patrycja Pendrakowska, Tomasz Pugacewicz, Radoslaw Pyffel, Jacek Ras, Karolina Schab, Chen Yurong, Li Fengling, Zhou Hong, Jiang Shixue, Chong Pin Lin, Kong Tianping, Chen Xin, Shen Wei, Cheng Yuchin, Li Zengwei, Deng Ketang, Cho Byoung-se, Fyodor Lukyanov, Oleg Timofeev, Luka Ezerski, Sanat Kushkumbaev, as well as my faculty colleagues at Jagiellonian University, had significant impact on the way I see Russia-China relations. Finally, I benefitted from the insights from researchers and individuals from Moscow, St. Petersburg, Vladivostok, Beijing, Harbin, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Seoul, Astana, Ashgabat, Prague, Paris, Oxford and Washington D.C.

Writing this book, as well as my entire career, would have been impossible without my wife, Magdalena Kozlowska, my great supporter, who remains my ultimate source of inspiration of what it means to be a world-class researcher.

Michat Lubina

This book has been completed in 2016, with last adjustments in May 2017