Are we ready!

Front matter

Class ikJM^

Book - VY^

Copyright N".

Contents

A Letter sdii

"■ II. An Attack on New York 11

III. A Bottled Navy 37

Chapter I

He was a clean-limbed, clean-minded, cleanblooded young American. By virtue of two very hard fists, one very active brain, and average American pluck, he had pounded his way to the top of his own particular pile. When I saw him last, he was slouched dejectedly on a narrow wooden bench in a little coop in the corner of a prize-ring enclosure in San Francisco — a much-battered youth, absently pressing the back of a swollen, bandaged hand against badly puffed lips. The usual bevy of fight experts were grouped around him, eyeing him critically, pumping questions at him. Finally they prodded him into speech. This is what he said : ''Aw, I never got started. He 's a mark. I'll knock his head off the next time I get him in a ring with me." Up to now, there

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has been no "next time." The mauhng the lad received shoved him from the top of the heap to the ranks of the "second-raters." He never got back. "Under-training, over-confidence, and carelessness" was the verdict of the "experts." He had the "class," they agreed, but the other lad "beat him to the punch."

All of which may or may not have anything whatever to do with the question of whether the United States of America is prepared for war with a first-class foreign power. It all depends on the way you look at it, or whether you bother yourself to look at it at all.

Since the present conflict in Europe demonstrated the terrific possibilities of international disputes and exposed the horrible perfection of modern scientific warfare, there is not one of us, it is probably safe to say, who has not had his moments of speculation, more or less vague, as to whether, just in case . . .

Our military experts for years, particularly since our trouble with Spain, when some rather startling difficulties presented themselves, in the way of putting where they were needed men and guns (and the things to put into men and guns), have been hammering and hammering on their arguments that we are not prepared for trouble, and that there is peril in our unpreparedness. Largely because these men are experts, perhaps, and therefore to the lay mind over-zealous and over-fearful, they have not been able to plant in the general run of us any very serious doubts as to our security here at home. We are a very young, a very busy, and a very confident people.

Whether or not our confidence and our sense of security are justified, it is a fact that investigation will immediately reveal facts previously not guessed at or at any rate not fully grasped. I set this fact down because it was only recently that I completed just such an investigation. It was undertaken for the purpose of placing before the non-professional, unexpert American the facts of our preparedness for war, as found by a writer who approached his task with no preconceived notions or theories of war save the universal American sentiment against militarism, and a conviction that mod-

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ern warfare will, some day, be looked upon as a wasteful and ridiculous means of expressing patriotism and advancing national hardihood, just as to-day we regard burning witches as a wasteful and ridiculous means of expressing faith and advancing religion.

If 200,000 fighting men of any first-class hostile power should be landed on our Pacific Coast to-night, we should have no course save regretfully to hand over to a foreign nation the rich empire west of the Rockies, with its cities, its harbors, and the wealth of its valleys and mountains.

If war were to be declared against us to-day, with portions of our regular army in the Philippines, Hawaii, Panama, and elsewhere, we could throw not more than 50,000 men into line of battle. With the utmost energy on the part of our officers, running our military machinery at top speed, it would take us at least six weeks to increase this force to 150,000 men.

A successful defense of our long coast line, in case of an attempted hostile invasion, would require at least 300,000 men backed by a trained field army of not less than half a million men. We are wholly unprepared to assemble any such defensive force.

Sudden invasion at this time would mean the certain loss of oxu- coast cities, to be regained only at an enormous cost of lives and treasure.

Of the very Hmited estimate of 1300 field guns for our army, we have only between 700 and 800 built. If all our guns were put into action at once, there is not enough ammunition in the country for an engagement lasting a single day.

These are all facts, agreed upon by the ablest mihtary minds of the nation. There are many more just as interesting.

Are they important.^

Is a trained force of 50,000 men within our borders ample at this time.^

Is an invasion of the United States possible or feasible.^

Could a foreign nation profit by it? If so, how.^

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On the premise that we can be forced into a war with a powerful, perfectly equipped, and thoroughly prepared foe and confronted with the immediate necessity of repelling an invasion, what then?

Can we provide an adequate defensive force, ready for action on short notice?

If not immediately, is it possible to provide against such an emergency in the future without adopting some sort of system of militarism, hateful to us, contrary to our best traditions? If so, how?

It all sounds a good deal like an examination paper. Well, perhaps it is. Perhaps the American people will find it worth while at this time to work out the answers.

The "first punch" is considered to be as important in the military art as it is in the manual of the prize ring. This, probably, was never more clearly shown than at the opening of the present war in Europe. That Wilhelm's first "straight right" was blocked, the» countered, was due to no lack of preparation, training, or agility on his part, but to the fact that the other fellow, if not wholly prepared, was suflficiently alert to be able to block, to weather the first furious assault, and to wait for an opening for a heavy counter.

The initial advantage of war is always with the aggressor.

Major-General Leonard Wood, former Chief

of StaflF of our army, in a recent interview I had

with him, illustrated this point this way : —

If an acquaintance has fully decided that it is necessary and advisable that he give you a thorough beating, he alone knows most of the vital details that go into what is coming your way. First of all, he knows of his decision. You do not. He knows precisely where he is going to hit you, when and how he will deliver the attack. You know none of this. What is more, he is not going to wait until you have begun to take boxing lessons. If you know that his attitude is not altogether friendly, you are lucky; and the best you can do is to keep your eyes open, your courage up, and your wind good.

Whether this great military man's illustration applies to the position of the United States among the nations of the world is of course de-

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batable. Whether we are hkely to become the object of the sinister designs of a foreign power is a subject which we have entrusted to the gentlemen and ladies whom we hire to keep their ears to the ground — our secret service and our diplomatic corps. This much, however, may be said: —

Since the close of the Civil War, when there were in the United States about 1,500,000 men under arms, to the present, when we have a mobile army of about 32,000 men ready, as a nation we have been steadily advancing our international position. Commercially, industrially, and politically we have been constantly becoming more important. Our responsibilities at home and abroad have increased in the ratio of our influence. Growing prosperity and power is a breeder of jealousies in nations as in men. Back of the European war is the latest demonstration of this.

Generally speaking, we are taking it for granted that because we do not want war we shall not have war. We argue: War is barbarous and futile. We are enlightened. Therefore we shall not have war. The world's market is an open market. If increased productiveness and enterprise mean broader competition, we will compete. We will not fight.

Generally speaking, we are taking it for granted that we do, and shall continue to, control the Pacific.

Generally speaking, we are taking it for granted that we shall continue successfully to uphold the Monroe Doctrine, regardless.

Generally speaking, a nation emerging as conqueror from the present struggle in Europe, itself based upon several things taken for granted, would look upon itself, and not without reason, as fully justified in taking over the work of development and culture in more or less undeveloped regions — South America, for example.

*'In the support of the Monroe Doctrine," a very able observer of international afiFairs said to me recently, "we must bear in mind that our stand has had the tacit support of Great Britain. Great Britain at present and for some years past has had a rather superior navy. We cannot see from where we sit how far the Euro-

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pean frog is going to jump. We can form no accurate picture of what Great Britain and her navy, or any other nation and its navy, not to mention armies and purses, are going to look like when this war is over."

The statement, with its inference, is no doubt open to debate. There is no reason for presenting here an argument for or against.

As a broad proposition, however, may it not be said that there is at least a possibiUty that while we, chock-full of confidence, happy, healthy, and prosperous, go blithely whistling up and down the highways of the world, some other fellow, not quite so care-free and a httle less opposed to a brawl, may be watching us with the cold eye of speculation?

Maybe there is a modern application of the hint that Solon dropped to Croesus: "If another king comes who has better iron than you, he will be master of all this gold."

Over in Europe we are getting daily proof of the fact that it is one thing to thumb one's nose at one's neighbor and quite another thing to watch one's eye.

CHAPTER II Suppose

Portland, Me., March 1^ — A destroyer arriving here with one of its funnels shot away, and half its crew dead or wounded, reports that in a terrific engagement on the east and west lines of trade, south of Newfoundland and off the Banks, the American main battle fleet has been partially destroyed by a superior squadron of the enemy. The surviving vessels are apparently seeking refuge in Boston and New York harbors, and Narragansett Bay.

Washington, March 12 — (Bulletin.) In a statement issued by the Government Press Bureau, the defeat of our main battle fleet is officially confirmed. The loss in ships and men is not given.

Bar Harbor, March 14 — A dispatch boat reports the presence of several war vessels, thought to be the enemy's scout cruisers, off

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the Massachusetts coast. A neutral steamship reports that the enemy's fleet has reassembled in large numbers.

Boston, March 14 — A scout cruiser, arriving here at midnight, reported having picked up a code wireless from the flagship of the enemy's fleet, carrying the information that the American fleet had been beaten and scattered, and instructing the movement of transports toward the Atlantic Coast.

Austin, Texas, March 14 — The Governor has refused to transmit the President's call for militia. Rumors of impending raids by Mexican irregulars are active along the border.

Washington, March 15 — Semi-official reports, from New England coast cities, only partially confirmed, indicate the approach of a large fleet of transports, under heavy convoy.

New York, March 16 — The official news of the defeat of our main battle fleet in an engagement off the Newfoundland Banks, followed by the arrival to-day of several of our smaller warships which crept into port, all badly crippled and carrying hundreds of dead and wounded.

has brought conditions here to the verge of panic. Frightful stories told by survivors, many of whom are in a state of hysteria, published in early editions of the evening papers, all indicate a disaster appalling in its extent.

Rumors that a bombardment from the sea is imminent persist. Because of the seemingly hopeless confusion, mobilization of the mihtia is proceeding slowly in spite of the utmost efforts of the military authorities.

Martial law has been declared. The Mayor has issued a proclamation advising banks and business houses to remove funds and valuables to Albany. Fear of bomb-dropping raids by aeroplanes launched from hostile warships has intensified the terror. Street illumination has been prohibited. New York will be in darkness to-night. Whole blocks of shops are closed and deserted. Looters have been ordered shot at sight.

The Croton water supply is unprotected. The city officials have asked the Government for regular troops.

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The tendency of civilians to rush frantically to arms without organization, trained oflBcers, or adequate equipment is increasing confusion and adding to the difficulty of preparing for a land defense. Motor vehicles are being commandeered for the transport of troops, equipment, and supplies. Station platforms are littered with baggage which cannot be moved. Every train leaving the city is choked with refugees. Two women have been killed in a crush at the Grand Central Station.

Boston, March 16 — A hundred or more persons, mostly women and children, were injured to-day, in a riot at the South Station. An unofficial report, published here, that Boston may expect a bombardment within the next forty-eight hours, has thrown the city into a panic. Thousands are leaving by rail, every description of vehicle, and on foot.

New York, March 16 — The commander of an armored cruiser, who brought his crippled vessel into port last night, is quoted in an evening paper as saying : "The nature of the engagement, in which the enemy was successful in his

U jVIADISON square, new YORK, AFTER AX AERIAL RAID

From a Drawing by Oliver Herford first purpose, to destroy and scatter our fleet, makes anything but the most general estimate of our losses impossible. That the disaster is complete there can be no doubt. The American fleet fought with the most desperate courage. We have lost our most powerful vessels. Our defeat can be attributed to our inferiority in number of ships, in speed, in number of heavy guns, to lack of battle practice, and to shortage of men. We were hopelessly outweighed at long-range fighting."

Washington, March 16 — Official Washington is stunned at the extent of our naval disaster as indicated in the fragmentary details confirmed up to this time. The official statement of our losses is not expected for several days. A comparison of reports makes it evident that a third of our fighting ships have been destroyed and that the rest have been so badly crippled that they cannot go into action until they are overhauled.

New York, March 16 — The central office of a press association reports that every important center on the Atlantic seaboard, from Galves-

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ton to Portland, is frantically appealing to the Government for troops.

Boston, March 16 — The hostile fleet has been picked up by a dispatch boat 150 miles off Cape Cod, headed west and steaming slowly. It could not be determined whether the fleet is making for Boston or New York. It is the evident purpose of the commander to conceal his objective until the troops reported to be approaching under convoy shall arrive.

Panama, March 16 — The Governor General has reported to Washington that steamers arriving at Colon have sighted hostile cruisers in the Caribbean. He has forwarded an urgent request that troops in the Canal Zone be increased and that an adequate ammunition supply be established at once. Preparations for the defense of the Canal are inadequate.

Washington, March 17 — Reports from various States indicate that the President's call for 500,000 volunteers has met with instant response. The greatest difficulty is being experienced in the effort to assemble, organize, and equip the recruits. It has developed that there are practically no officers available for organizing and training. The total lack of even a partially trained reserve for filling out the essential branches of an effective field force presents the gravest problems. There is an alarming shortage of cavalry, signal, engineering, hospital, and field artillery equipment. The total available supply is hardly adequate for the regular army and more or less complete mihtia organizations. Reports made public indicate that both the regular army and the militia are lacking in organization and equipment. All the available coast artillery reserves have been sent to the fortifications along the Atlantic Coast. This will supply about haK the men needed at the guns.

New York, March 17 — The mobilization of the regular army in the Albany district is complete. With the troops from the Mexican border, withdrawn in spite of vigorous protests by Texas authorities and by several border cities, a force of 20,000, organized as a full division, is concentrated in the military camps. One division of cavalry is en route,

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San Francisco, March 17 — A mass meeting was held here to-night to protest against the mihtia leaving California. The presence of what are believed to be hostile warships off the southern California coast is persistently rumored. The coast artillery has been brought to its full war strength. The artillery reserves have been brought in.

Washington, March 18 — It is the consensus of opinion of army and navy heads that the enemy intends to strike in the region between Washington and Boston. A high army officer, whose name is withheld, is quoted as expressing the belief that New York, because it is one of the most vulnerable of our large cities and would be most effective as a base of operations, and because, as the center of our arteries of commerce, its fall would have a paralyzing effect on the nation, has been selected for the initial attack.

Washington, March 18 — In spite of vigorous efforts to muster every available man during the two weeks that have elapsed since the President's call for militia, the figures made

O public to-day are startlingly low. Reports from every State are in, and indicate that the militia cannot be mobilized at more than forty per cent of its war strength. At the present rate of mobilization, and with several States refusing to allow militia to leave, it is estimated that at least six weeks must elapse before a force of 150,000 men can be concentrated for defense. Unless men who have had service in foreign armies come to our assistance, this force will remain untrained. The shortage of field artillery, cavalry, equipment, and trains is almost incredible. The greatest shortage is in field artillery, by far the most important auxiliary in infantry operations. This arm of the service has not sufficient ammunition at hand for more than a brief action. It has developed that New York has the only complete divisional organization. The total shortage, should the concentration of our available militia be accomplished, is estimated as follows: 80 batteries of field artillery; 70 troops of cavalry; 17 companies of engineers; 26 field hospitals; 30 ambulance companies; 12 ammunition

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trains; 12 supply trains; 12 pack trains. For the most part the miHtia is suppUed with a 3-inch Hght field gun only.

Washington, March 18 — All the Atlantic States, as well as Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, California, Oregon, and Washington, have flatly refused to allow their militia to leave. The President's military advisers are reported to be urging him to order the concentration of militia over the heads of those governors who are refusing to transmit his call. It is admitted that should such an order be resisted, it could be enforced only through process of law. The commanding officers of the North and South Atlantic districts are greatly exercised over the lack of coast-guard troops to protect the detached harbors, fire-control stations, and military works.

Harrisburg, March 18 — The Governor has agreed to send the Pennsylvania militia to the Albany region. The militia is practically without field artillery and other equipment necessary to field service.

Springfield, March 18 — The Massachusetts 20 militia has finally been ordered to Albany. It is poorly equipped. Its transportation is improvised, every description of vehicle having been pressed into its ammunition and supply trains. It is, necessarily, proceeding slowly.

Washington, March 18 — (Bulletin.) The President has ordered the militia of every State to mobilize in the Albany district.

New York, March 21 — An American scout cruiser, arriving here, reports having sighted a large fleet of transports approaching the eastern entrance to Long Island Sound.

Washington, March 21 — (Bulletin.) Under cover of a night fog, the coast artillery force on Fisher's Island was overpowered and the big guns rendered useless in a raid last night by a strong landing force of the enemy, according to an official statement issued by the Press Bureau to-day. A smaller force, with field guns brought from the warships, landed on the eastern side of Watch Hill, drove off the defenders of Fort Mansfield, and destroyed the mechanism of the guns, according to the same official report.

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New London, March 21 — (Bulletin.) A large number of troop ships under heavy convoy are entering Long Island Sound from the east. Troops are evidently about to be landed on the Connecticut shore east of here. Advance bodies of the hostile forces are momentarily expected. The city is rapidly becoming deserted. Terror-stricken inhabitants are leaving by hundreds.

Washington, March 21 — The following oflBcial statement has been issued by the War Department: "Troops in large force are being landed from the enemy's transports at a point east of New London. Advices from the vicinity of the invaded area are that United States regulars with a small force of militia offered a short resistance. They were driven back by the guns of the warships. With the hostile troops are being landed field artillery, several heavy guns, apparently of the siege type, and large quantities of supplies and ammunition. An aerial squadron has apparently been landed in Fort Pond Bay near Montauk Point, where the work of assembling aeroplanes is reported to be under way. Infantry and field artillery have also been landed at this point, according to the same report, indicating that the enemy plans a movement through Long Island. Telegraphic communication with New London has been severed. Reports froir. Waterford, Montville, and Chesterfield indicate that large bodies of troops are being pushed forward rapidly. The New York, New Haven & Hartford lines have been seized. It is evidently the enemy's intention to advance as rapidly as possible in order to hold the bridges toward New York. A strong detachment has been sent out in the direction of Boston with the apparent object of interrupting railroad communication toward Boston."

Philadelphia, March 23 — It is reported from the Delaware Capes that a large fleet, apparently composed of transports, cruisers, and battleships, is headed for the Chesapeake. By order of the Governor, the movement of the Pennsylvania militia has been suspended.

New York, March 23 —The delay in the advance of the Pennsylvania militia, caused by

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the rumor of a war fleet making for the Chesapeake, has caused the greatest embarrassment in the preparations for the defense of New York. The fleet reported in yesterday's dispatch is now known to consist of hght cruisers and colKers. No hostile move toward the Chesapeake is apparently under way, according to the latest advices from Washington.

Washington, March 23 — A Press Bureau statement contains the opinion of naval and military authorities that the enemy will not risk his ships against coast defense guns and there is no immediate prospect of a bombardment of New York from the sea. They believe that he intends moving through Connecticut to cut off Boston and to attack New York from the rear of its fortifications. This move will render the coast defenses powerless. The big coast guns cannot be trained inland and cover the harbor entrances only. They are practically unprotected against a land attack. If the surmised movement through Long Island is correct, it means that the defenses at Willet's Point and Fort Hamilton will soon be in the hands of the enemy. This would put Fort Slocum out of action and open up the eastern entrance to New York Harbor to small ships. The approach of additional troop transports is reported.

Boston, March 23 — Several hostile ships have fired long-range shots at Fort Revere, according to a dispatch from Gloucester. The Governor has requested that the Massachusetts militia be returned for the defense of Boston.

Washington, March 23 — The President has refused to allow the Massachusetts militia to return to Boston. Apparently he and his military advisers are convinced that the shots fired at Revere were intended to create panic and to weaken the defensive strength of our troops.

New York, March 24 — An aerial scout, who succeeded in reconnoitering over the Sound, reports the enemy's strength in the neighborhood of 150,000 men, with large quantities of field artillery, perfectly equipped supply, ammunition, and hospital trains, and several batteries of the heavy siege type. The force at

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Montauk Point, as nearly as can be estimated, is about a division of all arms. He observed several aeroplanes aloft apparently trying to locate American troops. He reports the main body of the hostile infantry pressing forward toward Saybrook.

Our forces are known to be advancing rapidly, and it is believed that a desperate attempt will be made to check the enemy's advance at the Connecticut River. It is believed that the closing days of the month will see the first battle of the war being fought along the river between Hartford and Saybrook. Our total strength consists of one division of regulars, a cavalry brigade, one division of New York militia, and an incomplete division of Ohio and Wisconsin militia. Small arms have been secured from the arsenal on Governor's Island and Frankf ord Arsenal at Philadelphia sufficient for 10,000 volunteers. Without organization or sufficient officers, these recruits have been rushed to the support of the little army advancing toward Saybrook.

Washington, March 27 — The following offi- 26 cial statement was issued by the Press Bureau at noon to-day: —

The enemy has forced a crossing of the Connecticut River at both Saybrook and Middletown. Our troops are being forced northward, and before further resistance will be possible, they will have to join with the New England militia. The hostile invading force numbers in the neighborhood of 150,000 men, with an overwhelming superiority in artillery and equipment. Transports with heavy reinforcements are reported to be approaching. The New York municipal authorities have been notified that a successful defense of that city seems impossible.

All of this is pure speculation, to be sure.

Nevertheless, the speculation has a basis in facts which cannot be disputed. I have shown the manuscript of this chapter to several military experts and all agreed that under the conditions which I have imagined, with the city's fate hanging on a bare 50,000 men, and an unorganized, unofficered, and poorly equipped

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force of volunteers, capture would be inevitable. They agreed that defense by citizens, under modern methods of warfare, would be hopeless, and pointed to the German operations in Belgium as proof of this. They agreed that a tremendous indemnity would doubtless be demanded, some placing it as high as $1,000,000,000, others still higher. None of them suggested that there was absurdity in the speculative treatment of the facts of our preparedness, and they were of one mind that if the events imagined should occur, the nation would face the immediate necessity of deciding whether it would pay an enormous monetary price for peace or whether it would enter into a long war to retake all that might be lost before hundreds of thousands of men and officers could be armed^ trained, equipped, and put into the field.

Among the men with whom I discussed this chapter was Henry L. Stimson, former Secretary of War. After a close study of the manuscript Mr. Stimson permitted me to quote him as follows: —

HENRY L. STIMSON

Secretary of War, 1911-1913

I have read "An Attack on New York." There is nothing said in it which is outside the bounds of modern mihtary possibihty. The facts with reference to our possible defensive force are accurately stated and the speculative treatment of them is logical.

The facts of our military preparedness, as they apply to the possibility of an attack on the Atlantic Coast, have an even more alarming bearing on any speculation touching the safety of our Pacific Slope.

Our General Staff and our War College have taken problem after problem, worked each one forward, backward, and sideways, conjured up every conceivable proposition touching attack and means of defense. In each case, eventually, the solution has been the same.

We cannot defend the Pacific Slope against a trained hostile force as small as 100,000 men.