Our competitors and markets: an introduction to foreign trade 1924

Front matter

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3 1761 rt “ ee”

American Business Series

Preface

THE purpose of this book is to serve as an introduction to acquaintance with the major foreign countries with which we have commercial relations. To fulfil this purpose, we must go beyond a mere categorical enumeration of the facts of commercial geography, such as size, population, customs, products, etc., and our procedure must be the direct reverse of classification or grouping. Each country is a problem in itself. One is of chief interest as a competitor in industry, and we wish to know whether its competition in the world’s markets is growing or declining. Another is valuable as a source of raw materials. A third is a market for our manufactures. Our trade relations with a fourth are disturbed by possibilities of political controversy; and so on. The facts of geography must find their place in relation to our particular interest in the country under consideration. The book is a commercial geography reduced to perspective.

The chief objection to this method of procedure is the great burden of responsibility placed upon the author in the selection of the most important points. This burden has, perhaps, been increased by his endeavor, while approaching each country with a mind open and unprejudiced, not to turn from a subject without having reached a definite opinion. To leave a question unsettled or to remain neutral is an invitation to slipshod or incomplete reasoning, a risk far more serious than that of arriving at a faulty conclusion after having presented definite arguments.

Probably no one will agree with all the conclusions reached — but so much the better! When the book is used as a college textbook, each point of controversy may be made the subject for a class debate or thesis work. The Synopsis vil

Vill PREFACE of Contents may be of assistance in the selection of subjects. The evidence in the text of the book may be supplemented or brought up to date by individual research. To learn the data of commercial geography, the student should use the index, supplying the figures from the text, and drawing appropriate maps. The study of countries not included here may be facilitated by reference to the “Sources of Information.” For the business man, it is hoped that the method of approach and the inclusion of the several countries in a single volume may help him to an idea of relative values, possible otherwise only through extensive reading, and to a basis from which he may appraise magazine articles and newspaper items at their true weight as propaganda or as valid information. :

Most grateful acknowledgment is due to the Widener Library of Harvard University for its generosity in according to the writer the privilege of using its excellent and very complete equipment. And second only to this is the author’s debt to his wife for her valuable assistance.

ARNOLD W. LAHEE

CAMBRIDGE, September, 1923.

I. INTERESTS OF THE UNITED STATES

Definition of our national aims must precede appraisal of foreign countries. Strength and prosperity of the nation, our basic interest, depend largely upon sheer man power. Industry and commerce support a greater population than agriculture, and facilitate more rapid population growth. So long as the United States remains independent for food, promotion of industry and commerce is a national objective. Our statistics thus indicate healthy development of the United States as an industrial nation.

Most of our trade is at present with Europe — industrial development is said to beget trade — and thus Europe’s prosperity has been thought essential for our prosperity. But the proportion of our exports to Europe is declining, and our interest in her as a market for our goods is diminishing. We are interested in Europe as a competitor; in extra-Huropean countries, as sources and markets, and as places for capital investment.

Il. Great Britain

Our trade with Great Britain exceeds that with any other country, but is declining. Our real interest is her strength as a competitor. Her rise began with the industrial revolution, which consisted essentially in the removal of checks upon the increasability of the factors of production. Her position can be maintained only by continued elasticity of the factors. Although today her resources are measured by the extent of the British Empire, their availability for British industry depends on the competitive strength of British industry itself. Her Cotton Textile manufacture enjoys exceptional advantages, but these very advantages now tend to hinder elasticity, and

ix

PAGE competition is forcing her to diverge from capitalistic production. Her Wool Textiles, though unassailable in foreign trade, show the same reversion from capitalism. Her Iron and Steel industry, basis of national power, is handicapped by depleted ore reserves and the general decline of capitalistic or machine production. Her Coal no longer affords an exceptional advantage in industry, new foreign supplies limit her export radius, and the use of petroleum for fuel will alter the shipping situation. Great Britain’s competitive strength is on the decline.

III. GERMANY

Germany’s industrial revolution was made possible by political integration and the establishment of the Empire. Her autocratic government promoted large-scale industry, exercising control through the banks and state enterprises, and assisted the development of foreign trade. The acquisition of Alsace- Lorraine, with the discovery of the basic process of making steel, and her Westphalian coal, gave a new impetus to her steel industry. The by-products of coke production and her potash monopoly have established her supremacy in chemistry. Through one mistake of her helmsman, Germany lost the original factors of her ascendancy, making her now comparable with her industrial neighbors. With her material supply less readily increasable, Germany may have to turn to quality production. But meanwhile she continues to produce cheap goods; and currency inflation has resulted in an ill-balanced home market and depreciated labor supply. Her prospects as a competitor of the United States are slight.

IV. FRANcE

Lorraine recovered, can France duplicate Germany’s achievement? France, before the War, was decadent. Various reasons for this are offered, but the fundamental cause was her lack of coal. The War has placed France in a new economic situation.

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Increased productive capacity, iron and coal reserves, may afford opportunity for transition to capitalistic production. Although her Sarre coal is inferior to Westphalian in location, quality, and extent of reserves, and she must continue to import some coke for her blast furnaces, her requirements will be available in a buyer’s market. The Sarre deposits are adequate for the balance, especially when supplemented by electrical power. France will concentrate, however, upon her colonial markets, rather than compete with American industry.

V. ARGENTINA

The Pampas, ideal for stock raising and agriculture, are only partly developed. Argentina’s slow progress at first was because of internal political turmoil and because the United States supplied Europe’s food requirements. Drought, locusts, and latifundia still check agricultural population increase, and remoteness of mineral resources hinder industrial progress. Her one-sided development insures an excellent market for manufactures, but for European rather than American goods. Her products for exchange we do not need, except hides and skins and wool. Europe’s requirements are greater than our own, and Europe has competitive advantages which reduce our prospects in Argentine trade.

VI. Braziu

Brazil is the economic supplement of the United States, — (1) As a source of commodities we need: Coffee, Rubber, and Cocoa are important and rapidly increasing imports into the United States. Brazil has ample room for expansion, her output being limited only by present lack of competent labor. Numerous other commodities are of interest to the United States, but others may afford trade relations with Europe. (2) As a market for our manufactures: Brazil’s consuming population, though preponderantly of low standard, is large and habitually extravagant. Her economic development, affording

PAGE xii a market for producers’ goods, awaits railway extension. Construction, hitherto hindered by difficulties of topography, may be promoted by harnessing her enormous hydro-electric power. “Our share” of Brazil’s import trade depends upon our own initiative. Our position is advantageous and conditions are favorable. Brazil offers a brilliant opportunity.

VII. CuHILe

Chile has always been important for her minerals : at first, for gold; now, for industrial minerals. She has a monopoly of Sodium Nitrates. Her Copper reserves, enormous though of low grade, may again become available through new economies in the extraction of metallic content. Her Iron resources are now commercially accessible via Panama, and also her other base metals. But heavy exports do not imply a proportionate import trade or market for American goods. A large share represents dividend payments, not purchasing power. The present consuming market is restricted. Mining employs few workers, and the bureaucracy supported by government revenues from mining demands luxury goods. Agricultural expansion is hindered by latifundia and competition of superior resources of Argentina and Brazil. Lumbering is insignificant. Manufactures, though apparently considerable, are in reality slight and promise little development in the future. Chile is chiefly attractive as a field for investment. Politically stable and able to protect herself against aggression, but less secure financially, and dependent too entirely upon mining, she is more suitable for the large investor than the small.

Political instability is the central feature of the countries of ‘Middle America.” Population and trade are greatest where stability is most assured. Cuba’s Cane Sugar production has enjoyed phenomenal expansion since her arrangement with the United States, which insured her political stability

PAGE and permitted the introduction of capitalistic enterprise. Progress may be expected in other lines of agriculture and iniron mining. The reflection of her prosperity is seen in her import trade. The United States is favorably situated, but caution is advisable owing to Cuba’s dependence upon a single product. Intervention by the United States has thrown open the virgin resources of Santo Domingo. The application of the iatest methods of production promises her speedy development, and the introduction of internal improvements offer a growing market. Improvement of Haiti is problematical. Porto Rico, though benefited by her connection with the United States, has been handicapped by overdevelopment in the wrong direction.

IX. Centrat AMERICA

Central America has the same potential wealth of resource as the West Indies. Coffee is the major export, but the Banana industry is our chief interest —as an example of methods of successful enterprise in the tropics, and possibly a means toward stability. But to duplicate this achievement might arouse conflicts of interest, to be controlled in the first place only by a strong government; and Central America’s political instability is inherent in the character of the people. There is no hope for permanent improvement, except by external intervention, a question involving the Monroe Doctrine and responsibilities of the United States.

X. MExIco

Mexico offers the same problem as Central America. She has enormous potential resources, agricultural and mineral, the result of her geographic position and topography, but requiring capitalistic enterprise to develop. Her petroleum is of great importance to the United States: our reserves are being depleted, while our requirements have grown imperative. Mexico is the world’s chief source of silver. Her copper may be a valuable supplement to

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XIV

XI. CHina our own resources. Sisal we import in large quantity for binder twine. But Mexico’s problem lies in her people: a small white aristocracy, a restless, unpractical mestizo majority, the Indian, a ready tool of the mestizo. Mexico’s history has been a struggle of the mestizo to subordinate the white with the aid of the Indian. The only stable government, under Diaz, failing to raise the Indian above the influence of the mestizo, was overthrown, and the present mestizo régime is marked by characteristic anti-white sentiment, expressed as anti-capitalism and anti-foreignism. Can the mestizo correct his hereditary defects and prejudices, and establish a durable democracy ?

China appears an unequalled market for manufactures, but has she a surplus product for exchange? Population presses closely upon means of subsistence, forcing extreme economies in production and consumption. Closer acquaintance with the resources of China reveals not only their great variety, but room for expansion of agriculture and increased production by improved tools and methods, mineral deposits for exploitation and for use in manufacturing (for which also she has the other essential factors). A surplus for export, however, will compete rather than exchange with our goods — except silk, our second major import. China is peculiarly fitted for sericulture, and with scientific methods should vastly excel Japan. Thus China does offer great possibilities, but the weakness of her government and the universal practice of ‘‘squeeze’’ hinder her progress : evils to be cured only by external control. But control by Whom?

XII. JAPAN AND THE EASTERN QUESTION

Japan resembles Great Britain. Although she is still an agricultural country, she is dependent, like Great Britain, for her raw materials. This is due, however, not to the greatness of her industrial devel-

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CONTENTS XV

CHAPTBR PAGE opment, but to meagerness of her resources. She owes her rise to her autocratic government. Tocontinue her development, she must obtain a source of materials, or ultimately suffer eclipse by China. Japan’s policy of territorial acquisition is thus not merely for space to accommodate her population, but for self-preservation — and future supremacy. Thwarted by Western interests and American policy, she must resort to methods of indirection, but her objective is manifest. For the maintenance of her rights, China can expect little from Japan, from her own patriots, or from the protection of Europe. Interference by the United States must sooner or later precipitate us in a war with Japan, waged at our great disadvantage. The alternative, to desert China, is a reversal of our policy and leads ultimately to the ‘‘ Yellow Peril.”

XIII. Mataysrtavor THE Hast INDIES... Lahti, eee

The Philippines, our East Indian possessions, are both economically and strategically important in our Far Eastern relations. Malaysia as a whole is of interest as a source of materials, rather than as a market for our manufactures. Rubber production has ample room for expansion; tin, of which the United States is the greatest consumer, offers opportunity for American enterprise; the coconut is of interest for its oil; and the Philippines enjoy a natural monopoly of manila hemp production. Tobacco, sugar, coffee, and petroleum are of chief interest to Europe. As a field for American enterprise and investment, Malaysia offers excellent opportunities.

India is one oe one antec! eae. of she woeld in agricultural production (her mineral output is slight), but her production per capita is very low. Famines are frequent. Efforts of the British government to reduce this scourge have accomplished comparatively little, owing to the obstacle of established customs and religious tenets. Our purchases of xvi jute, goatskins, and shellac are irregular; and as a market for our manufactures, the opportunity offered is not in proportion to her population. The adverse relations between India and Great Britain, who supplies most of her imports, promise little advantage to the American exporter.

XV. AUSTRALASIA

Australia is of ciel manortannee as a eee The people are in character similar to ourselves, and, being concentrated in the cities, are easily reached. Possibilities for expansion are great, but her development is hindered by socialistic legislation, which tends to discourage farming and over-stimulates industry. Her products, moreover, like Argentina’s, are of secondary importance to us. New Zealand, unhampered by labor control, is making great progress in agriculture, but her products are the same as those of Australia.

SouRCES FOR. INFORMATION

PAGE

FIG.

~~

LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS

Urban and Rural Population Growth in the United States

Population Growth of the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France ._.

Exports of Manufactures from the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France . SON heaein ‘

Composition of United States Trade :

Distribution of United States Exports by Major Continental Divisions, 1903 to 1914 :

Major Countries in United States ‘Trade, “Annual Average, 1919/21

Comparison of the Area. of European Countries and the United States Pa Tats

Major Imports into the United States is

Exports from the United Naan Hee to the United States 187 0 101920)... . )

Area of the British Isles By Ae

Pig Iron Production of the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France, 1871 to 1920 i

Area of Germany .

. Coal Production of the United States, ¢ the United Kingdom,

Germany, and France .

. The Nations of South America

. Topography of South America

. Argentina .

. Foreign Trade of Argentina, “Annual Average, 1909 / 11 ‘and

1919/21

. Climatic Similarity of Argentina and the United States : . Cattle-raising Countries of the World, and United States

Imports of Hides and Skins

. Brazil, the Climatic Complement. of the United States A Coffee-producing Countries of the World, and United States

Coffee Imports

. The United States of Brazil rab . Coffee Imports into the United States, 1870 to 1920 . . World Production and United States Imports of sane 1900

. Cocoa Imports into the United States, 1873 to 1921 .

Cocoa-producing Countries of the World, and United States Cocoa Imports Wi eet a RaaCEA TG ET aH f xvii

PAGH

115 116 119

123 125

128 135

136 138 141

143 152 xvid LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS

Toscanelli’s Map of the World Argentina, ee and stig cs Super-imposed upon Brazil

. Area of Brazil .

Distribution of eae in ‘South ‘America ’

. Foreign Trade of Brazil, Annual ae 1909/1 11 and

. Copper-producing ¢ Countries of the World, and United States

Copper Imports ; Foreign Trade of Chile, Annual Average, 1909/1 11 and 1919/21 21

. Agricultural Area of Chile . Area and Shape of Chile .

Length and Area of Cuba.

Cane Sugar-producing Countries of the World, and. United States Sugar Imports ... ee.)

Cuba’s Sugar Production, 1850 to 1921

. Sugar-growing Regions of Cuba : . Foreign Trade of Cuba, Annual Average, 1909/1 11 and

1919/2 The Central Asnonicnt States

. Topography of Central America .

Mexico .

; Topography of 1 Mexico é . Petroleum-producing Countries of the World, and ‘United

States Petroleum Imports .

. Foreign Trade of fees Annual Average, 1909/: 11 ‘and

The Natural Defenses of Ghaae ;

Distribution of Population in China

. Topography of China . Area of China .

Foreign Trade of China, Annual " Average, "1909/ 11 ‘and 1919/2 2. 2

Silk-Producing Countries of the World, and United States Silk Imports :

. Silk Imports into the United States, 1870 to 1920

The Japanese Empire, Acquisitions, and Economic Penetration in China and Siberia .

Foreign Trade of Japan, Annual Average, 1909/ 11 ‘and 1919/21

. Malaysia or the East I Indies . Area and Extent of Malaysia

Foreign Trade of the ee Average Annual, 1909 as 1 and 1919/21.

PAGE

159 167 169

175 185

188 196 204 205 217

221 222 229

231 243 252 259 260

272 281 283 286 287 294

299 301

312 316 340 342

FIG.

. Rubber-producing Countries of the World, and United States

LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS

Rubber Imports

. Tinplate Consumption of 1 the United States, 1899 ‘to 1920 . Tin-producing Countries of the World, and United States Tin

Imports Area of India

. Cotton-producing Countries of the World, and United States

Cotton Imports .

. Distribution of Population i in ‘India .

. Land Holdings in India

. Foreign Trade of India, Average Annual, 1909 / 11 and 1919 / 21 . India, Showing British Possessions and Native States : . Foreign Trade of Australia, Average Annual, vue! 11 and

1919/21

. Distribution of Population i in ‘Australia. . Area of Australia .. . Sheep-raising Countries of the World, and United States Imports of Sheepskins .

. Similarity of the Climates of 1 Australia and “Argentina 2 . Foreign Trade of New Zealand, Annual ebdessks 1909 f 11 and

1919/21 x1X PAGE

347 350

351 360

361 364 367 369 374

378 380 382

385 389 a i yi uh?

Ai te j ‘ a ae 7 cy 4 ik i : A a rs y ais ‘ t 7 { he f Py y, i} [ Cpa 4 + h i f ies : ; \ pe i t f yh i s hee ¢ o

FOREIGN TRADE py { ‘ r ° : ‘ i ny in 1 \ , } f Way vA pe : ry 7 ¥ic ay

COMPETITORS AND MARKETS: i AN INTRODUCTION TO

Chapter I Interests Of The United States

Definition of our national aims must precede appraisal of foreign countries. Strength and prosperity of the nation, our basic interest, depend largely upon sheer man power. Industry and commerce support a greater population than agriculture, and facilitate more rapid population growth. So long as the United States remains independent for food, promotion of industry and commerce is a national objective. Our statistics thus indicate healthy development of the United States as an industrial nation.

Most of our trade is at present with Europe — industrial development is said to beget trade — and thus Europe’s prosperity has been thought essential for our prosperity. But the proportion of our exports to Europe is declining, and our interest in her as a market for our goods is diminishing. We are interested in Europe as a competitor; in extra- European countries, as sources and markets, and as places for capital investment.

Our Central National Interest

To attempt an appraisal of foreign countries without first defining our own national interests and aspirations would result in a mere catalog of quantitative attributes. Any definition of national aims, however, is sure to arouse dissent in one quarter or another. The United States is a country three million square miles in area, with a correspondingly large variety of climatic conditions and agricultural and mineral resources. Each section has its own particular interests, often in direct conflict with those of others. On one point, however, all sections must be in accord: in desir- 3 ing the greatest strength and prosperity for the nation as a whole.

Modern inventions — the steamboat, the airplane, the telegraph, and “wireless ’’ — have brought about such intimate relations between nations that perhaps it is not unnatural, when we focus our attention upon this aspect, to conclude that “‘nationalism”’ is becoming obsolete and being replaced by “internationalism.” That such is the case, however, can no more be true than that the interdependence of people living crowded in the cities makes them any less self-interested than their country cousins. Rather the contrary! Although opportunities for earning a livelihood are more numerous in the city, competition for the job is more intense. Similarly, competition among nations of the world is waxing more and more keen. Thus, with growing interdependence, there are more frequent occasions for dispute. Since there is no international police to maintain order and each state is sovereign unto itself, each must develop its own strength to command respect.

One of the primary elements of a nation’s strength, so far as may be compatible with its standard of living, is sheer man-power. In war times, the larger the army that can be put in the field without seriously impairing the productive efficiency of the nation, the better is its chance of victory, and the more speedy, of course, will be its recovery. A weak nation is like a man of small means, who may be able to live comfortably enough until sickness comes. Then the doctor’s bill, which would scarcely touch the rich man’s pocketbook, may wipe away the poor man’s savings of a lifetime and reduce him to economic slavery. In times of peace, also, a large concentrated population is an advantage. Progress is facilitated by the exchange of ideas and by the stimulus of close competition.

Industry and commerce support a denser population than can agriculture. Agriculture requires space for the growing of crops and grazing of cattle. On the other hand, space required by manufacturing is inconsiderable. Commerce needs still less. A man sitting in a little office can engage in a flour transaction amounting to millions of dollars and yielding a profit counted in thousands. Ships to transport the flour, sailing weekly, carry a cargo of say 10,000 tons. This represents a whole year’s output of twenty average-size flour mills, or the weekly output of over a thousand such mills. But all these mills together would take up only a fraction of the thirty thousand acres of average wheat lands necessary to raise the crop.

The countries of western Europe are fairly comparable in their standards of living. In France, before the War, where 40% of the persons occupied in gaining a living were farmers, and 27% were employed in industry and 9.5% in commerce, the average population density was about 190 persons per square mile. In Germany only 31% of the people were dependent upon agriculture, 36% on industry, and 11% on commerce. The average population density for the nation was 315 per square mile. The average density in the rural districts was 130 per square mile; in the cities, 4300. Holland is poorly endowed with industrial resources, but she has the advantage of geographic location, at the mouth of the Rhine, the gateway of Europe. She combines agriculture and commerce. Her average population density is 518 per square mile. Belgium, her immediate neighbor, _has a location only slightly inferior for commerce, and is fortunate in the possession of coal and iron deposits. She combines industry with commerce and agriculture. Her population density is 666 per square mile. England (proper), like Belgium, combines industry, commerce, and agriculture, and has a density of 700 persons per square mile.

Industry facilitates a more rapid growth of population than is possible in a purely agricultural society. Undeveloped countries, by adopting a protective tariff policy, try

A YT A a TO

Tn) Pee Re ee [ea ET er PS es === =a

Bn PCa a a ee a A ee er AN

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Urban, places over 8000 inhabitants: solid line places over 2500 inhabitants: broken line

Rural, places under 8000 inhabitants: dashes places under 2500 inhabitants: dotted line to encourage domestic industries and thus become independent of outside sources for their clothing and most essential manufactured articles. This policy has a second and more

Millions ge

Fie. 2. Population Growth of the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France. (Prior to 1810 the statistics for the United Kingdom do not include Treland.)

important effect, that of increasing the rapidity of their population growth. In spite of vast reaches of lands available for agricultural expansion, the urban population of the United States has multiplied at double or treble the rate of the rural population. In an old country, industry postpones stagnation and decay. England, starting in 1800 with a population of less than nine millions, could never have doubled it in fifty years, and almost quadrupled it within the century, on an agricultural basis. Germany’s increase from 41 millions in 1871 to 65 millions in 1910 was made possible only by her industrial expansion. In places in China one can find a purely agricultural population as closely settled as 2000 persons per square mile, but this point has been attained only through centuries of slow growth, and at the expense of the standard of living.

The industrial countries of Europe have allowed themselves to be carried too far.in their industrial development : to a point at the opposite extreme from that of the undeveloped countries. They depend upon outside sources for their food supplies, a matter far more serious than dependence for such articles as clothing, implements, etc. One can patch old clothes, and can postpone the purchase of a new plow, but one must have food from day to day. Germany’s submarine campaign came within an ace of proving disastrous for Great Britain. For the United States, however, any danger of such dependence is remote. Our exports of foodstuffs are 20 to 30% of our total exports and almost double the value of our food imports — 40 to 45% of which consists of sugar from Cuba, with coffee representing about 20% more. We supply 40% of the world’s exports of wheat, of corn and oats 25%, and of cotton more than 60%. Moreover, our agricultural output appears to be still increasing at a rate more rapid than the extension of area under cultivation and the number of persons employed in farming. It has not yet reached the point of “diminishing returns.”

We may conclude, in short, that the promotion of industry and commerce, although necessarily confined to particular

Million Dollars Oo = eelooe,, 2° ee e es 22 Dea coe) mee ens a7) a

1900 1905 1910 1915 Years Fig. 3. Exports of Manufactures from the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and France. localities and sections of the country, is no mere sectional interest, but a legitimate and fundamental] concern of the United States as a nation. )

And actually the United States is becoming an industrial nation. The proportion of our total exports represented by manufactures has steadily increased, from 5.66% in 1820 to almost 40% in 1920. At the same time our dependence upon foreign industrial nations has declined during the century. Our purchases of their manufactures have dropped from 57% of our total imports to 17%. In 1898 for the first

Triennium EXPORTS Percent 10 20 80 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

1879-81

IMPORTS

MMQQKCCLajii hn

Partly finished manufactures, UZZZZLA

Crude commodities,

Foodstuffs,_ oe Fia. 4. Composition of United States Trade.

time the value of our exports of manufactures exceeded that of our imports. The domestic market was no longer able to absorb the total domestic industrial product or its equivalent of foreign manufactures. Hereafter our industrial growth, proceeding at a rate faster than that of our domestic requirements, will be possible at maximum rapidity only through sales in foreign markets.

The same period (1820 to 1920) has marked a decline in our exports of foodstuffs and raw materials (until interrupted by the War). Instead of sending our supplies abroad to support industrial populations and so strengthen our competitors, we have been using them to hasten our own development : |