Trade, population and food. A series of papers on economic statistics

Front matter

HF

CORNELL

UNIVERSITY

Contents

PAGE

Inteodtjctoet. — The present Ckisis in Trade . . xi-xxvii

The OrriciAL Trade and Navigation Statistics . . 1

II

The PfiOGEESS op oub Foreign Teade^ Imports and Exports^ DURING Twenty Yeaes^ 1854-74/

THERE are two purposes for which statisticians exist ; two objects to be kept steadily in view by every collector of statistical information. The first is that of carefully gathering together facts and figures on every subject " calculated to illustrate the position and prospects of society/-" and so storing them up as to be accessible to all who may need the information they afford. The second, that of from time to time selecting from the stores so accumulated such particulars as should command attention, whether from their intrinsic importance or their relation to the subjects occujDying the thoughts of those who may not have time or opportunity for the task of personal research — thus giving a present value to past labour, and in effect materially influencing the course of human thought and action in all that relates to the property of the nation or the welfare of its members. It is the latter of these purposes which is attempted to be served by the present paper.

There can be little question as to the importance of the subject, or the interest which is taken in it, by those who are inhabitants of a country so essentially dependent for its prosperity upon the continued progress of the trade and manufactures to which it owes its present greatness ; and a belief that some light may be thrown upon our present condition

^ Kead befoi-e the Statistical Society, 18th May, 1875. Vol. xxxviii.

and our future advancement, by a careful consideration of the history of the past, must be the excuse, if such be needed, for this endeavour to place its more prominent features before the Fellows of this Society.

In thus tracing back for some years the course which out foreign and colonial commerce has taken, recourse has been had to the successive volumes of the " Annual Statement oi Trade and Navigation" issued by the Statistical Department of the Board of Trade, from 1833 to 1870, and since then by the Statistical Department of the Customs. The whole oi the figures used are taken from these publications, and therefore rest upon official authority, although for their collection into the tables appended to this paper and the calculations or conclusions founded upon them, the writer is individually responsible. The period of twenty years has been chosen not alone as a convenient one for which to exhibit the comparative results of our trading operations, but likewise from the circumstance that in 1854 a change took place in the method by which the import values and those for the exports of foreign goods were ascertained, which renders any accurate comparison with former years quite impossible. Prior to that year the values given were " official ; " since that time " real ; " " computed " up to and including 1870, and then " declared." By " official" is meant a calculation from the quantities "according to rates of value fixed so long back as 1094.''^ ^ By " computed real" is to be understood the average market value, " including all the charges of freight and landing, but exclusive of duties." ^ The " declared " values should represent " the actual value of the goods at the time of importation," ' derived from a declaration required from the importers on the first entries passed by them for their goods. The " computed" and " declared'' values should in the aggregate be alike, and may therefore be fairly compared with each other. Not so, however, with the " official," as was shown by a comparison of the two foi

1 "Preface to Animal Statement," 1854. ^ Ibid.

3 "Monthly Account of Trade and ISTavig-ation," July, 1871.

tte year 1854, in which they were prepared upon both systems, when —

The old ofEdal value of imports amounted to' ... 124,338,478 New computed real value 152,591,813

Showing an excess of real value of 22|- per cent.= 28,253,335

At the same time the exports of foreign and colonial produce were —

Old official value 29,821,656

New real value 18,648,978

The old value being in excess 38 per cent.=: 11,172,678

Two or three instances, taken from the same source, will still further illustrate the fallacy of this system, and show the impossibility of comparing the results attained under it with those under the present plan : —

New Real Value.

Old Official Value.

Wood

11,064,094

21,760.283

20,175-395

5^540,735

8,579,203

Corn

Cotton, raw

Tea

These examples are worthy of note, because it so often happens that ignorance of the change of system leads to the quotation of figures for values prior to 1864, as if they were of equal worth to those from that date forward. The same difficulty does not exist with regard to the export of British goods, the declared value for them having been adopted as far back as 1798.

Being thus restricted in the date to which we can go back for import values, the series commences with 1854. Another year would have been more satisfactory, since the Russian

' " Annual Statement for 1854."

D

War, which then broke out, may be deemed to have a£Fecte( the trade of that and the following year; but not to sgreat an extent, however, as might be supposed, as wil appear from the official values for it, and the few preceding years wherein there is much the same sequence, as i manifested by the real values of Table I. for succeedinj years.

Imports.

British Exports.

£ 63,596,025

'50

71,367,885

'51

74,448,722

'52

78,076,854

'53

98,933,781

'54

97,184,726

There are two aspects in which the commerce of thi kingdom may be viewed : the one embracing all goods im ported and exported, including those brought to it for i market and again carried abroad; the other excluding thesi and showing only the foreign and colonial goods retained and the British goods exported. The first may be deeniet the merchant's view, since to him it matters not whether thi goods he sells are for home or foreign use, of home or foreigi production. The latter, however, is the more important viev to the political economist, since the general condition of thi country is evidenced and influenced by its ability on the om hand to pay for the goods it consumes, and, on the otLei by its power to produce and sell the articles on which th employment of so large a portion of its population depends

The several tables ^ have been drawn out with the desigi of clearly showing : —

Several of the tables to which reference is made have not been in serted ; and the same omission has been followed in those appertainin to subseqnent papers. Their bulk would have unduly swelled th volume, and possibly have given it a forbidding appearance. Th

1st. The gradual yearly progress of our commerce under the three heads of original imports^ re-exports, and retentions for home consumption or manufacture, with the percentage of increase or decrease upon its immediate predecessor in each year, and upon 1854, the first year of the series. Also, in like manner, the total exports, divided into those of foreign or colonial origin, and those of home produce or manufacture J but it must be borne in mind that the exports of foreign and colonial articles thus shown are only those which leave our hands in an unaltered condition, for if subject to any manufacturing process or change of character, they become classified as of British manufacture, and are included as such in the columns devoted to that class.

2nd. The proportion of trade carried on both inwards and outwards with the principal countries of whom we are customers, and to whose markets we send our productions. These figures, on account of the space which would be occupied by a statement of each year's trafiic, are only shown for every fifth year, and the percentage of increase as before upon the figures of 1854. A very imperfect idea, however, will be given of the extent to which we trade with many countries, from the indirect routes by which much of the transport is effected, and the varying channels through which this takes place. With some countries there is little but direct trade. Russia, for instance, neither receives nor sends us much but in vessels from or to her own ports and ours; but Germany obtains a large portion of her supplies — and forwards hers to us — through the ports of Holland, and even by railway through France. The goods which in ordinary seasons are shipped from Hamburg, when that port is closed by the ice come to us via Altona, and then get credited to Denmark. A line of steamers in connection with the French steamers to the East, periodically takes large

special points of interest are in general incorporated with the text, or are contained in other papers, and references are given to the original volumes in which they may be found by those who desire a more intimate acquaintance with their details.

36 PROGRESS 01? OUR FOREIGN TRADE,

cargoes to Marseilles, for transmission to China, Honj Kong, Japan, and other places ; and on their return voyage they bring back cargoes from those countries transhipped a the French port. Before the Suez Canal was made, th^ ships of the Peninsular and Oriental Company which noT go through the canal cleared out in this country for Egypt to which country the goods they carried were deemed to h exported ; and in like manner goods brought through thi Red Sea and overland to Alexandria, were treated as im ports from that place. The same thing happens in th( winter season with goods to and from Canada via Portlanc in the United States. This evil is, as stated in the "Monthb Return " for January of the present year, in process of cor rection, and so far as the ultimate destination is known, th( exports are now credited to the countries to which they pro perly belong. Too much reliance must not, therefore, bi placed on the -relative extent of our trade with the varioui countries specified in the tables, since for this reason ther( is in many cases much intermingling of one with the other Neither is it always right to judge of the growth or declin( from year to year of the trade with any particular country since with the starting of new lines of communicatioi material changes in this respect may and do arise.

3rd. The principal articles of which our imports and exports consist are separated for each fifth year in the sam( manner as the countries are.

In all these tables we are dealing with the values — neoes sarily so for the first and second purposes — since the totalf can only be obtained by reducing the denominations o weight, measure, &c., in which the goods are taken t( account to the common measure of value in pounds sterling and this being done for the grand total as well as for th( amounts to and from the different countries, it is well t( show the different articles in the same form. These sums however, fail fully to show the variations from year to year because, being founded upon the market prices existing a the time, which are constantly shifting, it is necessary t( take such, fluctuations into consideration in arriving at a correct judgment as to the real increase or decrease which is taking place. To assist in arriving at right conclusions on this point, there have been added tables, showing the quantities of some of the articles of greatest magnitude, with the percentage of increase for last year over that of the year with which we commence. A comparison of the rates of increase in the value and the quantity of each article will show whether the additional value is due to greater bulk or to higher price.

It should be noticed that one portion of the goods brought to and taken from this country is not included in any of the tables, namely, those which are merely sent hither to find a vessel going to the place for which they are destined, and are transhipped from one ship to another without being landed here. A somewhat rough account is taken of their value (and in many cases the quantities of the articles). This is of some importance, because thus passing into and out of our waters they furnish employment for our ships and men, and its increase is an element of additional mercantile or maritime prosperity.

The whole value of these transhipments during the past twenty years is as follows :^ — ■

1865. '66. '67.

£ .. 6-47 .. 772 . 6-66

'68 7-28

'69 8-12

'71 11-36

'72 13-90

'73 1376

'74 11-42

It would have disturbed the whole cour.se of the argument to have carried on the several figures to last year, when trade had again become depressed. The figures therefore for the five years which have

Before speaking of the general results, it may be expe dient to take the several tables in whicb ttese are shown and point out the nature and peculiarities of each, bearing in mind that the great object of this paper is to draw atten tion to the disparity between the transactions in the first anc the last years of the series selected.

In Table I. we find that a total import, valued in 1854 a £15 2,300,000, had grown by 1874 to one of £370,000,000 an increase of 143 per cent., or at the rate of rather mor( than 7 per cent, per annum ; not, indeed, by regular ad vances, for there are many fluctuations in the rate of pro gress, the years of greatest increase being 1856, 1860 1863-64, 1866, 1871, and 1872, those of retrogression bein^ 1855, 1858, 1865, 1867, and 1874. The second column the table shows the extent to which the goods thus importec were again taken away to other countries, the whole importations during the twenty-one years amounting to 5,34c millions of pounds sterling, and the re-exportations to 86c millions, or about one-sixth part. The increase in this branch of trade has been proportionally greater than that 0; the imports, namely, 209 per cent., or at the rate of lol-pe] cent, per annum, and is somewhat more equally distributed the years in which it has receded being 1858, 1866-67 1869-70, 1872-73. In 1861 and 1862 there were greal steps upwards, and again in 1871, in which the highesi point was attained, namely, an advance on its predecessoi of 36 and on 1854 of 225 per cent., since when there has been a continuous fall. Deducting the re-exports from tk original imports, we should arrive at the value of the goods retained in the country. And here the increase is not sc

elapsed since this pajier was written, are in this and subsequent place inserted for reference, in a foot-note only.

76 10-82

79 10-98 great as that of the first receipts, being but 1 34 per cent. This gives an annual rate of 6f per cent., fluctuating from an increase in 1856 of 2I"7 to a decrease in 1858 of I3"6 per cent, on the years immediately preceding. Those in which the greatest rise took place were 1856, 1860, 1864, 1866, and 1872 ; those of falling off 1855, 1858, 1865, 1867, and 1874.

Table II. exhibits similar statements for the exports. The second column, that which shows the foreign and colonial re-exports, being necessarily identical with the same column in Table I. The total increase here has been from 116 millions in 1854 to 297 in 1874, or 156 per cent., giving an average rate of nearly 8 per cent. — a more regular one than in the imports — the greatest range being from an increase in 1863 of 1 8' 5 to a decrease in 1867 of 5" 5 per cent. The years of greatest increase were 1856, 1859, 1863-64, 1866, and 1871-72, those of decrease 1858, 1861, 1867, and 1873- 74. The whole exports of the twenty-one years amounted to £4,300,000,000, of which 860, or about one-fifth, were re-exportations, leaving £3,400,000,000 as British produce or manufacture. Of these latter the growth has been from £97,000,000 in 1854 to £240,000,000 in 1874, or an average rate of ^\ per cent, increase, the irregularities being as great as in the other cases, namely, from a decrease in 1861 from its predecessor of 7-9 to an increase in 1863 of 1 8' 2 per cent., the years of largest growth being 1856, 1859, 1863-64, 1866, 1871-2; those of recedence 1855, 1858, 1861-2, 1867- 68, and 1874.

In Table III.^ the total value of the imports for every fifth year is divided into that from our Colonial possessions, and from Foreign countries ; and again, between the principal possessions and countries, with the object of showing from whence we draw our supplies, and the variations in our relations with each. To have done this for every year would have taken up too much space, therefore only the percent-

^ For Tables III. to IX., see " Journal of Statistical Society," June, 1875.

40 PEOGRESS OF OUR FOREIGN TRADE,

age of increase in 1874 upon 1854 lias been drawn out in tli

last column. From this table it will appear that the pro

portion of receipts from our own possessions at present i

between one-third and one-fourth of the whole ; and that o

these India is by far the most liberal contributor to our wants

four-ninths of our colonial supplies being drawn from thence

Australia stands next^ with rather more than two-ninths

bidding fair by the rapidity of its increase to distance it

elder sister ; the one having in the twenty years advancet

Mauritius and South Africa have advanced by 125 pe

cent., and our North American possessions by half as much

whilst the West Indies remain almost stationary, the increasi

being but 4 per cent. Of foreign countries by far th(

greatest sender, at this time, is the United States, fron

whom we last year drew to the value of £74,000,000 ou

of £289,000,000, or more than one-fourth of the whole

Next to the States comes France with £47,000,000 or one

sixth, then Eussia with £21,000,000, and Germany wit]

£20,000,000. It must be observed, however, that for th

reason before alluded to these figures do not altogethe

accurately represent the relative trade of the different coun

tries — France being credited with the goods from the Eas

which pass through her ports in transit ; the United State

with some which come from Canada ; Holland and Belgiur

probably with that of Germany. The bulk of that fror

Egypt is brought from the Bast, and the imports which use

to be landed on one side of the Isthmus and re-shipped

the other now pass in increasing quantities through the Sue

Canal.

Table IV. serves the same purpose for the exports froi the United Kingdom, and here we find a not very differei proportion in the relative trade to British and foreig places, from that which we observed in the imports, a toti of £297,000,000,. giving £77,000,000 to our colonie The same countries, too, seem to be our largest purchaser though not in the same relative degree. India takes £29,000,000 out of the £77,000,000, and Australia £21,000,000; but the latter does not advance with anything like the same rapidity as the former, the respective increases in 1874 over 1854 being 56 and I 73 per cent. Of the foreign countries, the United States is again one of the largest dealers, £32,000,000; but Germany outstrips her by more than £2,000,000, standing at the head of all with £34,500,000. Trance comes next with £29,000,000, and Holland with £23,000,000; all these being portions of the £220,000,000 sent to foreign countries in 1874. The total growth since 1854 has been from £11 6,000,000 to £297,000,000, or 156 per cent.; British possessions have risen from £36,000,000 to £77,000,000, and foreign countries from £79,000,000 to £2 20,000,000, or 1 1 3 and 177 per cent, respectively. The same remark as to the effect of the transit trade applies to these figures as it did to those of the import.

Table V. deals with the values of the principal articles for the same years for which the previous table did with the several countries, and in the same manner shows the increase in the last year over the first. An attempt has been made to divide the articles into classes, so as to show the difierent rates of increase; but this is somewhat imperfectly done, from the difficulty of strictly defining to which class certain goods properly belong.^ First in order stand those which undeniably belong to articles of food, beginning with grain and farinaceous substances, going on to living animals, next to animal products, then to vegetable substances for food and drink, supplemented by the addition of alcoholic liquids and tobacco. It is here that the greatest increase has taken place, for whilst that of the whole imports has been but 143, this has been 165, or including spirits, wine, and tobacco, 151 per cent. ; nor does this fully represent the growth in our consumption ; for if wheat, which appears

' Food tables will be found in Papers IV. and V., " On Foreign Food Supplies."

to have been exceptionally large in 1854, be left out, the other articles of food will show an excess of fully 200 per cent., or a treble quantity in twenty years. In some the additional receipts are really enormous : thus potatoes are multiplied sixty-fold, eggs eleven, bacon and hams seven, butter and cheese four and five-fold. Tea has more than doubled, and in most of these by far the greatest gain has taken place in the last quinquennial period. Live animals are four times greater than in 1854, but do not keep pace with other articles, for there has been a slight falling off since 1869. Spirits show an actual decline of 6 per cent., being the only article in this class which is less than in 1854 ; but wine has increased 90 and tobacco 187 per cent.

Next in order are placed the raw materials, which form the staple of our textile fabrics, and, by way of contrast, the manufactures from these materials, which are imported in their finished state ; the former have increased 1 30, the latter 250 per cent. The most remarkable growth in the raw material is in jute, an article which may be said to have sprung into existence as one of import at the time of the Eussian war, and during the cotton famine to have taken such a hold on our markets as to have increased 540 per cent. On the other hand, silk has during the same period declined 14 per cent, in the raw, but increased 298 per cent, in the manufactured article. Wool likewise has increased, both raw and manufactured, and in each at almost exactly the same rate — 248 and 243 per cent. There is this difierence, however, that the amount of the raw products is considerable, namely, in 1874, £90,000,000, but in the manufactured only £15,000,000, the one being nearly a fourth, the other only a twenty-fifth part of our total imports. In neither does there seem to be any great growth going on, since the imports of both in 1 869 were very nearly the same as those of 1874.

The metals, which form a not inconsiderable item of import, viz., £1 1,000,000 last year, have increased 21 1 per cent. ; lead standing first and iron next. In wood there appears to have been but little alteration in the first four periods, whilst in 1874 it is nearly double that of 1869, the whole increase upon 1854 being 84 per cent. A few other miscellaneous articles are included, in which hides show a growth of 259, and oils a decrease of 4 per cent.

Although numerically these specified articles do not form a large proportion of our total imports, in value they embrace nearly five-sixths ; and may therefore be taken as a fair evidence of the general progress. It is probable that in some points the comparisons may not be strictly accurate, owing to minor alterations in the classification of diS'erent descriptions of the same goods, by which the totals given may not always include the same subdivisions. This remark applies more to the arrangement under quantities, which will be found in Tables YIII., IX., and X.

In Table VI. the same particulars are given for some of the articles of which the exports form an important consideration. By deducting the values here given from those of the preceding table we may arrive at the amount retained in the country, and shall find that in some articles this is but a small proportion of the quantity brought here for a market in 1874. As examples of this, cofi'ee was imported to the value of rather more than £7,000,000, of which £5,000,000 were again taken away; rice brought in is valued at £3,600,000, and taken away to the extent of £2,500,000; tea came in £11,500,000 and went out £2,500,000, a much smaller proportion. On the other hand, of nearly £31,000,000 worth of wheat we parted with barely £6oo,000 ; of sugar, to £20,000,000, we parted with but £700,000; and of cotton, out of £5 i,000,000 worth, less than £7,000,000 left us.

Table VII. is the counterpart of Table V., but dealing with the exports of British produce and manufacture. The articles enumerated are fewer than those of the imports were, although they represent about the same proportion, viz., for 1874 five-sixths, or £203,000,000, out of £240,000,000, quite sufiicient to indicate the general course which the trade has taken. Of these cotton manufactures and yan together show for £74,000,000, or about three-eighths the whole. The increase on these has been to the extent 0: 134 per cent. Iron and steel come next with £31,000,000 an increase of 146 per cent., and then woollen manufactures and yarn £28,000,000; these three branches of manufacture alone furnishing more than half of all our exports, and manifesting an increase of 142 per cent. Coals afford £12,000,000, Hnen manufactures £ 1 1, 000,000, and sili £3,000,000 towards the total exports of 1874 — an increase on 1864 of 460, 113, and 85 per cent, respectively. A remarkable instance of the varied character of our trade is shown in what might have been thought a trivial article oi manufacture-, namely, empty bags and sacks for packing goods, of which we exported to the value of a quarter of a million pounds in 1854, and one million and three-quarters in 1874.

In all the foregoing tables we have been treating of values alone, and not at all of quantities. This, as before explained, is necessary for the general purposes of comparing one yearns transactions, one country's trade, or the dealings in one article as compared with others ; but for ascertaining with anything like precision the advance or otherwise of the several articles through a series of years, it is indispensable that we should consider quantities as well. Indeed, this is the more important of the two, for fluctuations of price whilst very important in regard to questions of profit and loss, whether to the manufacturer, the trader, or the nation, will be misleading in attempts to form estimates of the increased production, sale, or consumption of the various articles, whether foreign or British, in which we trade. Three tables have, therefore, been prepared, in which the quantities of the same articles for the same periods, with the like increase of one year over another are displayed, so far as is possible. In many cases it would be impracticable to do so, because the values alone are capable of being registered. This happens also with some articles of which the values are given, as -woollen manufactures, which heading includes a number of subdivisions, all capable of beinggrouped together for a joint value, but not so for a common quantity, because the separate quantities, such as weights and measurements, pieces, or pounds and yards are not capable of being added together. Neither must it be taken that in all cases the values shown for any article are for identically the same parcels of goods as are shown under quantities, as for instance, wood, where the value includes staves, firewood, and furniture woods, the quantities only those of hewn and sawn ; but with such an article as tea, where the value and the quantity are for the same amount

of goods, the division of one by the other would give the

actual average price per pound in each year.

Table YIII. is for the principal articles of import, and

they, though much fewer in number, are ranged in the same

order as in Table Y.

Table IX. contains the same details for portions of the

foreign and colonial produce re-exported, and Table X. for

the exports of British goods. In many of these latter the

disparity of increase is so great that it may be well to range

them side by side, thus : —

Increase in.

Value.

Quantity.

Alkali

1-043

Sugar, refilled

Such are a few of the more noticeable points brought out by an inspection of the several tables, and having, it is hoped, thus far kept within the strict bounds of a statistical

PEOGRESS OF OUR FOREIGN TRADE, paper^ I would trespass somewhat upon the time and indulgence of my hearers or readers — trenching in some measure upon the province of the political economist — to pass in review some of the conclusions at which their consideration may enable us to arrive.