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Browse materialsMIT IDS.333 · Fall 2021

IDS.333 Risk and Decision Analysis

Art: William Playfair (1759-1823), Playfair TimeSeries, 1786 · Public domain

Instructor: Prof. Richard de Neufville
Term: Fall 2021
Level: Graduate
What's inside: 45 videos · 2 solutions · 1 lecture note · 73 other files · 18 web pages
Materials open: Videos here · files on MIT OCW

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Start course: Unit 2: the Forecast is always wrong, Video 1: Cost Estimates Find a topic

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About this course

Source: MIT OpenCourseWare IDS.333 IDS.333 Risk and Decision Analysis, Fall 2021, Prof. Richard de Neufville — original course page on ocw.mit.edu ↗. License: CC BY-NC-SA 4.0. Study order: MIT's own listing order, section by section. Taken from MIT's published course files, downloaded from ocw.mit.edu on September 23, 2026. How RedLectern is built.

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Has MIT solutions 3 files in this course are named by MIT as solutions.

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Prerequisites are not listed here. Check MIT's own syllabus for this course.

How this course was organized

What's here, and what isn't

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Materials by section

Grouped by section, as MIT organized them. Not sequenced or ordered.

Unit 8

Lecture Notes

10 files

Assignments

Homework 1

Quizzes

Student Projects

7 files

Other materials from this course

1 file

MIT_IDS_333f21_lec1n2.pdfPDF Download

45 video transcripts

MIT OpenCourseWare, Prof. Richard de Neufville, IDS.333 IDS.333 Risk and Decision Analysis, Fall 2021.

License: CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 · Edition: Fall 2021 · Open the original course on OCW ↗

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IDS.333 Risk and Decision Analysis

Before you start

What's here, and what isn't

Not included here

Materials by section

Unit 8

Lecture Notes

Assignments

Homework 1

Quizzes

Student Projects

Other materials from this course

Unit 2: the Forecast is always wrong, Video 1: Cost Estimates

Unit 2: The Forecast is ‘Always’ wrong, Video 2: Demand Forecasts

Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 3: Porcupine Graphs

Unit 2: The Forecast is "Always" wrong, Video 4: Common Forecasting Process Inherently Flawed

Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 5: Flaw of Averages 1-the Concept

Unit 2: The Forecast is Always wrong, Video 6: Flaw of Averages 2-the Consequences

Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 1: Introduction

Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 2: Logic of Analysis

Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 3: Recognizing Uncertainty, Simulation

Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 4: Adding Flexibility

Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 5: Design to Manage Uncertainties

Unit 4: Parking Garage Case Example, Video 6: Flexibility is Win-Win

Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 1: Concept—What Is Needed

Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 2: Recommended Process

Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 3: Outcomes and Target Curves

Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 4: Decision Rules and Unit Closure

Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 5: Physical Situation

Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 6: Simulation and Value Flexibility "on" Project

Unit 5: Mechanics of Simulation, Video 7: Value of Flex "in" Project

Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 1: Five Main Drivers—Uncertainty is Most Important

Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 2: Economies of Scale

Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 3: Discount rate and Learning Promote

Unit 7: Drivers of Flexibility, Video 4: Balancing Overall Effect of Drivers

Unit 8: Decision Analysis 1, Video 1: Advantages

Unit 8: Decision Analysis 2, Video 2: Decision Trees

Unit 8: Decision Analysis 3, Video 3: Constructing Trees

Unit 8: Decision Analysis 4, Video 4: Multistage Analysis

Unit 8: Decision Analysis 5 Video 5: Retrospective Overview

Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 1: Concept of Test

Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 2: Value of Test

Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 3: Expected Value of Sample Information

Unit 9: Value of Information, Video 4: Expected Value of Perfect Information

Unit 9: Value of Information 5, Video 5: Is Test Worthwhile?

Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 1: Is Optimization Possible?

Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 2: Diminishing Marginal Utility

Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 3: Conditions for Value Function

Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 4: Consequences

Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 5: There's No Valid Group Utility

Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 6: Dominated Solutions

Unit 10: Utility Analysis and Multidimensional Evaluation, Video 7: Robustness and Take-aways

Unit 11: De-Salt and LNG Cases, Video 1: De-Salt Plant Australia

Unit 11: LNG Case 1, Video 2: Introduction

Unit 11: LNG Case 2, Video 3: Initial Analysis

Unit 11: LNG Case 3, Video 4: Learning effects

Unit 11: LNG Case 4, Video 5: Final Analysis