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Probability And Its Applications To Reliability, Quality Control, And Risk Assessment
Art: Not determined, Figure 7 of Radio-active substances, 1904 · Public domain
- Instructor
- Prof. Michael Golay
- Term
- Fall 2005
- Level
- Graduate
- What's inside
- 1 lecture note · 1 reading · 41 other files · 4 web pages
- Materials open
- MIT OCW
About this course
Source: MIT OpenCourseWare 22.38 Probability And Its Applications To Reliability, Quality Control, And Risk Assessment, Fall 2005, Prof. Michael Golay — original course page on ocw.mit.edu ↗. License: CC BY-NC-SA 4.0. Study order: MIT's own listing order, section by section. Taken from MIT's published course files, downloaded from ocw.mit.edu on September 23, 2026. How RedLectern is built.
Materials are grouped the way MIT organized them. A verified, course-wide order has not been established here.
Has MIT solutions
Before you start
Prerequisites are not listed here. Check MIT's own syllabus for this course.
How this course was organized
What's here, and what isn't
- A lecture sequence of 4 items is confirmed. Assignment and exam materials exist too, but MIT's own order for them could not be verified, so they're shown as materials below rather than a sequence.
Not included here
2 items from the source could not be safely included:
- MIT's page format for this item wasn't recognized clearly enough to place it safely.
- Referenced in a table, but without MIT's own verified order, so it isn't used to claim a sequence.
Materials by section
Grouped by section, as MIT organized them. Not sequenced or ordered.
Lecture Notes
22 files
- Risk-Informed Operational Decision Management (RIODM): 1. Risk, Event Trees and Fault Trees Download
- 2. Reliability and Availability Download
- Structure Functions Download
- Valve Test Example Download
- Basic Probabilistic Concepts Download
- Convergence of Binomial and Normal Distributions for Large Numbers of Trials Download
- Convergence of Binomial and Poisson Distributions in Limiting Case of n Large, p<<1 Download
- Plane Crash Example Download
- Failure, Repair, Maintenance Download
- Reliability and Availability Download
- Operational Availability Download
- Bayes’ Theorem Download
- Bayesian Inference Download
- PRA: An Historical Perspective (Courtesy of Prof. George Apostolakis. Used with permission.) Download
- PRA Structure and Results Download
- Uncertainty Download
- Types of Uncertainty Download
- Common Cause Failures 1 Download
- Common Cause Failures 2 Download
- PRA in Managing Operations Download
- Engineered Safety Features Download
- Containment Download
Assignments
16 files
- Problem Set 1 Download
- Problem Set 1 · Solutions Download
- Problem Set 2 Download
- Problem Set 2 · Solutions Download
- Problem Set 3 Ang and Tang: Problems 2.40, 2.43, 3.1, 3.12, 3.14, 3.19, 3.22, 3.26 Problem Set 3 Extra Credit Download
- Problem Set 3 Ang and Tang: Problems 2.40, 2.43, 3.1, 3.12, 3.14, 3.19, 3.22, 3.26… · Solutions Download
- Extra Credit Download
- Problem Set 4 Ang and Tang: Problems 3.31, 3.34, 3.38, 3.41, 3.48, 3.50, 3.59 · Solutions Download
- Problem Set 5 Ang and Tang: Problems 3.61, 3.62 Rausand, and Hoyland: Problems 2.2, 2.8… · Solutions Download
- Problem Set 6 Ang and Tang: Problems 4.5, 4.9, 4.19, 4.24, 4.31, 4.32 · Solutions Download
- Problem Set 7 Ang and Tang: Problems 5.3, 5.5, 5.10, 5.14, 6.7 b, c, 6.8 · Solutions Download
- Problem Set 8 Rausand and Hoyland: Problems 4.5, 4.6, 4.7 a, b, c, 4.12 · Solutions Download
- Problem Set 9 Download
- Problem Set 9 · Solutions Download
- Problem Set 10 Download
- Problem Set 10 · Solutions Download
Exams
Other materials from this course
Course outline
Calendar · Lecture Notes
Lecture 16: IX.1 Simple Logical Configurations (Series; Parallel; Standby Redundancy) IX.2 Complex Systems IX.3 Stress-Strength Interference Theory IX.4 Modeling of Loads and Strength IX.5 Reliability-Based Design IX.6 Elementary Markov Models
Calendar · Lecture Notes
Lecture 17: X.1 Bayes’ Theorem and Inference X.2 Conjugate Families of Distributions X.3 Comparison with Frequentist Statistics X.4 Elicitation and Utilization of Expert Opinions
Calendar · Lecture Notes
Lecture 18: XI.1 The Concept of Simulation XI.2 Generation of Random Numbers XI.3 Generation of Jointly Distributed Random Numbers XI.4 Latin Hypercube Sampling XI.5 Examples from Risk and Reliability Assessment
MIT OpenCourseWare, Prof. Michael Golay, 22.38 Probability And Its Applications To Reliability, Quality Control, And Risk Assessment, Fall 2005.
License: CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 · Edition: Fall 2005 · Open the original course on OCW ↗
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